Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Sahel – Part 2. Case Study for Groundnut and Cowpea in Niger

During the last 30 years, the climate of the West African Sahel has undergone various changes, especially in terms of rainfall. This has large consequences for the poor-resource farmers depending mainly on rainfed agriculture. This paper investigates the impacts of current climate variability and future climate change on groundnut and cowpea production in Niger for three major agricultural regions, including the groundnut basin.Niger was one of the largest West African groundnut producing and exporting countries. Groundnut production – as a cash crop – dropped fromabout 312,000 tons in the mid 1960s (about 68% exported) to as low as 13,000tons in 1988 and increased again to 110,000 tons in 2000. Cowpea, a food crop, showsa different tendency, going from 4,000 tons in the mid fifties to a maximum of 775,000 tons in 1997, and its cultivated area is still increasing. It is also a cash crop in local economies (especially for women).To highlight the impact of climate change on groundnut and cowpea production (significantly determined by rainfall in July, August and September), the following components of the rainfall regime were calculated for the period 1951–1998: mean annual and monthly rainfall, beginning, end and lengthof the rainy season, number of rainy days per month, amount of rainfall per rainy day and the maximum length of dry spell per month. Three sub-periods whose duration varied per region were defined: for Dosso 1951–1968,1969–1984 and 1985–1998; for Maradi 1951–1970, 1971–1987 and1988–1998; and for Zinder 1951–1966, 1967–1984 and 1985–1998. A change in rainfallregime components was observed between the three sub-periods, which were characterized in chronological order by wet, dry and intermediate conditions. To assess the impact of climate variability and change on groundnut and cowpea production, a statistical modeling approach has been followed, based on thirteen predictors as described and discussed in the preceding paper. Climate change is mimicked in terms of reduced total amount of rainfall for the three main rainfall months and an increased temperature, while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. In 2025,production of groundnut is estimated to be between 11 and 25% lower, while cowpeayield will fall maximally 30%. Various strategies to compensate thispotential loss are presented for the two crops.     

Modeling how a hurricane barrier in New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts, affects the hydrodynamics and residence times

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic and transport models were used to simulate tidal and subtidal circulation, residence times, and the longitudinal distributions of conservative constituents in New Bedford Harbor, Massachusetts, before and after a hurricane barrier was constructed. The results indicated that the barrier altered circulation patterns in its immediate vicinity and enhanced mixing up to 1.5 km to its north and south. Although the barrier did not significantly affect the longitudinal distributions of conservative constituents, it increased their average residence times in the harbor by up to 30% and their local residence times by 5% to 180%.     

Sediment mobilization study on Cretaceous,Tertiary and Quaternary lithological formations of an external Rif catchment,Morocco

ABSTRACT

Soil erosion is a serious ecological problem in Mediterranean areas. The IntErO model based on the erosion potential method (EPM) and the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) have been used to assess soil erosion in several basins. This study aimed to assess and evaluate the effectiveness of these methods for evaluating sediment production and deposition rates in the Arbaa Ayacha basin, Morocco, in order to estimate sediment fluxes on a catchment scale. Our findings suggest that the basin is strongly exposed to erosion owing to geological formations, slope and land use, with average losses of about 28.4 t ha^?1 year^?1. Erosion processes were evaluated at the erosion production (Eocene marly formations) and sedimentation zones (Quaternary terraces). The results of these models may be useful to address soil and water management in this region and to assess the impact of a river dam that will be built in the basin.     

Correlation of the radiometric survey data and the structural analysis with the geology of Abu Zawal Area,Central Eastern Desert,Egypt

Abu Zawal area is located nearly north of the midway of Qena-Safaga road, and is about 250 square kilometres. It is built of a sequence of igneous and metamorphic rocks of Late Precambrian age.It has been subjected to geological, radiometrical, and structural investigations to reveal the structural setting of the area and its relation to the trends of mineralization, as well as the distribution of the radioactivity in the different rock units, cropping out in the studied area. Therefore, each rock unit has been characterized statistically by a certain radiometric background through the radiometric survey traverses. Besides, application of certain statistical inference tests could find the relations that might exist between the different rock types of Abu Zawal area and their corresponding ones in other studied areas.It has been found that the least radioactivity is associated with the basic metavolcanic rocks, while the highest values are associated with the Late Orogenic Plutonites and related rocks, and the granodiorites represent a moderate level of radioactivity. The study revealed that the Late Orogenic Plutonites of Abu Zawal area might be of younger age than their corresponding ones at the north of the Eastern Desert.Investigation of the two conjugate shear joints for the whole area and those for the granodioritic rocks, in the studied area, could indicate that every rock type has been subjected to different forces, but the complementary of all the forces acting on the studied area has a strike N 28° W. This is consistent with the interpretations of different authors which tend to the fact that the Eastern Desert of Egypt has been subjected to a compressive force of northwesterly direction.Investigation of the tension planes along which mineralization is possible, could reveal that the area is subjected to the first case of stress-strain ellipsoid in which tension fractures are formed at right angle to the greatest strain axis, while shear fractures are formed passing through the intermediate strain axis which make an angle of about 30° with the least strain axis.The structural trend analysis realized four tectonic trends having preferable orientation in the E-W, N-S, NW-SE, and NE-SW directions, of which the E-W is the oldest trend.

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Zusammenfassung Das Untersuchungsgebiet Abu Zawal liegt nördlich der Straße Qena-Safaga, etwa auf halber Strecke. Es ist etwa 250 km² groß und wird aus magmatischen und metamorphen Gesteinen spätpräkambrischen Alters aufgebaut.Das Gebiet wurde geologisch, radiometrisch und strukturgeologisch untersucht im Hinblick auf den Bau der Region und seiner Beziehungen zur Mineralisation und zur Verteilung der Radioaktivität in den verschiedenen Gesteinseinheiten. Entlang radiometrischer Meßprofile wurde jeder Gesteinskomplex statistisch bezüglich seines radioaktiven Untergrundes charakterisiert. Mit bestimmten statistischen Vergleichstests könnten sich Beziehungen zwischen den Gesteinstypen des Gebietes von Abu Zawal und entsprechenden anderer untersuchter Gebiete feststellen lassen.Die geringste Radioaktivität wurde in den basischen metavulkanischen Gesteinen beobachtet, die höchsten Werte dagegen in den spätorogenen Plutoniten. Die Granodiorite besitzen mittlere Radioaktivität. Die Untersuchung hat ergeben, daß die spätorogenen Plutonite des Gebietes von Abu Zawal jünger sein könnten als die entsprechenden Gesteine im Norden der Eastern Desert.Die Untersuchung der beiden konjugierten Schersysteme des gesamten Gebietes wie der granodioritischen Gesteine zeigt, daß jeder Gesteinstyp zwar verschiedenen Kräftefeldern ausgesetzt war, daß aber das Komplement aller Kräfte, die auf das Untersuchungsgebiet wirkten, die Streichrichtung N 28° W (i.e. 152°) besitzt. Dieses stimmt mit den Interpretationen verschiedener Autoren überein, die in der Eastern Desert Ägyptens ein Gebiet sehen, daß einer Kompression aus nordwestlicher Richtung ausgesetzt war.Die Untersuchung von Zerrungsklüften, in denen Mineralisation erfolgen kann, ließ erkennen, daß das Gebiet dem ersten Fall des Strain-Stress-Ellipsoids ausgesetzt war, bei dem die Zerrungsbrüche senkrecht zur Achse der größten Druckspannung erfolgt sind. Die Scherbrüche sind dagegen entlang der Achse der mittleren Druckspannung entstanden, die einen Winkel von ca. 30° mit der Achse des geringsten Druckes bildet.Die strukturelle Analyse ließ vier tektonische Trends erkennen mit den Hauptrichtungen E-W, N-S, NW-SE und NE-SW, von denen die EW-Richtung die älteste ist.

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Résumé La région d'Abu Zawal est située approximativement à mi-chemin au nord de la route Qena-Safage, et couvre environ 250 km². Elle est formée par une série de roches ignées et métamorphiques d'âge précambrien supérieur. - Elle a été étudiée du point de vue gé ologique, radiométrique et structural en vue de reconnaître sa position structurale et sa relation avec les tendances minéralisatrices, ainsi que la répartition de la radioactivité dans les différentes unités. Chaque unité a donc été caractérisée statistiquement par un certain fond radiométrique à l'aide de traverses radiométriques. En outre l'application de certains tests d'inférence statistique a pu trouver les relations pouvant exister entre les différents types de roches de la région d'Abu Zawal et leurs correspondants dans d'autres régions étudiées.La radioactivité la plus faible a été trouvée associée aux roches métavolcaniques basiques, tandis que les valeurs les plus élevées sont liées aux plutonites orogéniques tardives et aux roches qui leur sont associées; quant aux granodiorites, elles représentent un niveau de radioactivité modéré. - L'étude a révélé que les plutonites orogéniques tardives de la région d'Abu Zawal pourraient être plus jeunes que leurs correspondantes du Nord du Désert oriental.L'investigation des deux systèmes conjugués de joints de tension pour l'entièreté de l'étendue et de ceux relatifs aux roches granodioritiques dans l'étendue étudiée, pourrait indiquer que chaque type de roche a été soumis à des forces différentes, mais que le complémentaire de toutes ces forces ayant agi sur la région étudiée a une direction N 28° O. Ceci est en accord avec les interprétations des différents auteurs qui tendent à dire que le Désert oriental de l'Egypte a été soumis à une compression de direction nord-ouest. L'investigation des plans de tension le long desquels la minéralisation est possible pourrait révéler que la région est soumise au premier cas de l'ellipsoïde strain-stress dans lequel les fractures de tension sont à angle droit de l'axe maximum des efforts, tandis que les fractures de cisaillement se forment le long de l'axe intermédiaire des forces qui fait un angle d'environ 30° avec l'axe des efforts minimum.L'analyse structurale des directions a permis de reconnaître 4 directions tectoniques dont l'orientation dominante est E - O, N - S, NO - SE et NE - SO, parmi lesquelles la direction E - O est la plus ancienne.

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The origin of small-scale geochemical and mineralogic variations in a granite intrusion

A post-tectonic unzoned granite intrusion in the Meatiq Dome, a Late Proterozoic metamorphic complex in the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt, shows significant chemical and mineralogic heterogeneity on the scale of sampling (5 kg). Whole rock analyses of 21 samples indicate small variations in SiO₂, Al₂O₃, Na₂O and K₂O, and larger systematic variations in the less abundant major elements such as FeO, TiO₂, CaO, MnO and MgO, and trace elements such as Sc, Cr, Co, Rb, Sr, Zr, La, Ce, Nd, Sm, Tb, Yb, Lu, Ta, Th and U. These variations cannot be accounted for by processes such as marginal accretion, assimilation, alteration by late stage fluids, or multiple intrusion. Instead, we proposed a model involving 35 percent solidification of the granite magma followed by partial solid-liquid segregation during emplacement, resulting in rocks containing 7–71 volume percent early-formed solids. Such randomly distributed local segregation could have been caused by filter pressing, flow differentiation, and possibly gravity segregation, either singly or in combination. Thus, each sample is interpreted as a mixture of two end-members with nearly constant compositions: an early-formed solid assemblage of crystals and a complementary residual liquid. Early formed solids are enriched in TiO₂, FeO, CaO, P₂O₅, Sc, Co, Cr, Sr, La, Ce and depleted in SiO₂, Rb, Yb, Lu, Ta, Th, and U, while the residual liquid has complementary enrichments and depletions. This simple mixing model is consistent with field and petrographic observations, experimental studies pertaining to the crystallization sequence in the system Ab-Or-Qtz-H₂O at 1 Kb, and physical properties of silicic magmas. Furthermore, it is quantitatively supported by trace-element data for minerals, computed endmember compositions at 35% crystallization using mineral analyses and reasonable Kd values, and internal consistency in the percent solid for each sample computed from each of 17 elements in the inferred end-members. We suggest that this model might also apply to other small epizonal granite intrusions that show small-scale chemical heterogeneities.     

Les récifs coniaciens à rudistes de Tunisie centro-occidentale: sédimentologie, cadre paléogéographique et interprétation séquentielle

Coniacian rudist-buildups have been discovered in the Dernaïa-Tamesmida area (west central Tunisia). They are sedimentologically studied in detail in this paper. Reefs sensu stricto are made up of rudists (Hippuritidae and Radiolitidae) and they show a height:lateral extension ratio of about 1:50. The fore-reef is composed of southwest progradang pelletoid sandwaves, whilst hemipelagic micrite has been deposited in the distal talus. The back-reef lagoons (NE side) include green algae and annelid, miliolid, ostracod and gastropod biotopes. Perilagoonal oolitic bars may border these environments.These reefs evolved in a shallow, relatively open environment. They correspond to barrier-reef complexes which developed at the margin of a generally shallow carbonate ramp.In terms of the sequence stratigraphy, they characterise late low sea levels and especially the high sea levels of the uppermost Turonien-Coniacian depositional sequence.     

Post-orogenic and anorogenic A-type fluorite-bearing granitoids, Eastern Desert, Egypt: Petrogenetic and geotectonic implications

The present study focuses on four A-type fluorite-bearing granitic plutons in the Eastern Desert of Egypt which are classified into post-orogenic subsolvus (Homrit Waggat, 535 Ma; Homer Akarem, 541 Ma and Ineigi, 571 Ma) and anorogenic hypersolvus (Gabal Gharib, 476 Ma) granites. All the granites are Si- and alkali-rich and MgCaTi poor. Whereas both granite types appear relatively homogeneous in terms of most of their major and trace elements, they differ in that the subsolvus granites are depleted in TiO₂, FeO^*, Ba, Sr and Zr and enriched in Rb and Y with respect to the hypersolvus granites. The two granite types, however, can be distinguished more easily by their rare-earth element (REE) patterns. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of the hypersolvus granite display a gull-wing shape, characterized by a large negative Eu anomaly and moderate-to-high LREE contents. Relative to the hypersolvus granite, subsolvus granite is depleted in LREE and more enriched in HREE contents. The increase of HREE in the subsolvus granite is presumably caused by F complexing during the late stage of its evolution. This is supported by the abundance of fluorite veins cross-cutting the subsolvus granite. The negative Eu anomalies in the subsolvus granite point to the role of feldspars as residual phase in the source, and as a crystallizing phase during magmatic differentiation.Field relations, textural, mineralogical and geochemical data of the post-orogenic subsolvus granite are consistent with its derivation from a parental basic magma through crystal-liquid fractionation of alkali feldspar, plagioclase, amphibole, FeTi oxides, titanite, zircon, monazite and allanite. Crystallization occurred in a water-enriched and rather oxidizing environment, as a result of which the entire suite has a transitional character between that of a post-orogenic and an anorogenic setting. On the other hand, the most credible mechanism for the origin of the anorogenic hypersolvus granite is partial melting of I-type granodiorite-monzogranite source rocks in the study area.     

A trust and reputation model for filtering and classifying knowledge about urban growth

In this paper we present a trust and reputation model to classify and filter collaboratively contributed geographic information. We hypothesize that users contribute information in a collaborative system akin to Web 2.0 collaborative applications. We build on previous work where trust is proposed as a proxy for information quality and propose a spatial trust model to filter and extract high quality information about urban growth behaviors contributed by users. The motivating scenario involves residents of recently urbanized areas taking into account their interactions with their surroundings. The main contribution of this paper is a formal trust and reputation model that takes into account the spatial context of users and their contributions.     

Capillary geochemistry in non-saturated zone of soils. Water content and geochemical signatures

The unsaturated zone (UZ) retains aqueous solutions against gravity by capillary forces. This suction state corresponds to a decreasing internal pressure of the water, which modifies its thermodynamic properties. Accordingly, the speciation of solutes and the solubility of solids and gases in such capillary solutions change. The volumetric capillary water content of the soil at high suction can be calculated extrapolating the water retention curves (WRC) with the Rossi–Nimmo model. Interestingly, several tens of liters per cubic meter of soil can be thus suctioned, a sufficiently large volume to support that: (1) capillary water is not restricted to nanosized pores, which means it disobeys the Young–Laplace law and is metastable with respect to vapor (superheating); and (2) the geochemistry of capillary solutions might significantly influence the subsurface mass transfer. Two field situations are here interpreted using the capillary thermodynamic properties: (1) the trapping of sand grains during the growth of desert roses (gypsum), and (2) the development of abnormal paragenetic sequences in some saprolites.The capillary approach is extended to the soil solids, so that the micro-mineralogy can be explicitly (though sketchily) integrated in the calculations. The key conclusion is that capillarity changes the saturation indexes (and so the reaction rates) at given solution composition, in a way consistent with the field observations. This perspective amounts to geochemically distinguishing the capillary and percolating solutions, which is interestingly analogous to the immobile and mobile water distinction already often integrated in UZ flow models.