Cycles in the scaling properties of length-of-day variations

Variations in the length-of-day (LOD) reflect the effects of several mechanisms in the Earth's rotation dynamics, including Earth–Sun and Earth–Moon line-up, geomagnetic effects and gravitational changes. Several studies showed that signatures of cycles occurring over a wide range of time scales are present in the LOD variations. The present work uses a fractal scaling study based on detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to study persistence of LOD variations and to provide insights in the different cycling mechanisms. The results showed that that the LOD variations are persistent over a wide range of time scales, meaning that an increment (resp., decrement) is more likely to be followed by an increment (resp., decrement). The temporal variation of the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA showed that several cycles already reported from the direct LOD variations analysis are inherited by the scaling properties. Inter-annual cycles, including 4.3 and 18.6 years cycles, are linked to the variations of the stochastic dynamics of LOD fluctuations. In this way, the 18.6 years cycle attains a period where variations are mostly affected by white noise effects, reducing the predictability of the LOD anomalies. The results are discussed in terms of the different lunar tidal and core–mantle mechanisms and related to recent results in the literature.     

Features of deep crustal structure and the onshore-offshore transition at the Iberian flank of the Valencia Trough (Western Mediterranean)

First results are presented of a recent onshore seismic survey complementary to the Valsis-2 Cruise, which consisted of ESP, COP and CDP marine seismic profiles across the Valencia Trough (Western Mediterranean).The marine energy source used was an airgun array of 5800 cubic inch recorded at 2 land stations on the western flank of the Valencia Trough, at distances between 10–120 km.The experiment has resulted in an extended sampling of the deep crustal structure of the eastern Mediterranean flank of the Iberian peninsula, as well as the offshore-onshore transition.Three transverse NW-SE profiles have been interpreted. Local thinning of the sedimentary cover has been determined towards the centre of the basin which, together with the shallow high velocities observed on the southern profile, could be related to volcanic episodes.A seismic continental basement has been found at depths between 3 and 5 km. A thin lower crust (3–5 km) with velocities around 6.8 km/s has been identified in the northern part of the basin. Alternative crustal models considered for the 3 profiles have been tested, not only from arrival times but also from relative amplitude distributions. A first-order Moho discontinuity fits the data best. The welldefined Moho boundary results in energetic P_MP reflections, and a clear updoming is observed towards the interior of the basin, from depths about 20–21 km inshore of Barcelona to 15–17 km depths 60 km offshore. An anomalous upper mantle with low P_n velocities of about 7.7 km/s is confirmed in most of the sampled areas.     

Faulting, shallow seismicity and seismic hazard analysis for the Costa Rican Central Valley

Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km² and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.     

A genetic algorithm for filter design to enhance features in seismic images

We present a novel method to enhance seismic data for manual and automatic interpretation. We use a genetic algorithm to optimize a kernel that, when convolved with the seismic image, appears to enhance the internal characteristics of salt bodies and the sub‐salt stratigraphy. The performance of the genetic algorithm was validated by the use of test images prior to its application on the seismic data. We present the evolution of the resulting kernel and its convolved image. This image was analysed by a seismic interpreter, highlighting possible advantages over the original one. The effects of the kernel were also subject to an automatic interpretation technique based on principal component analysis. Statistical comparison of these results with those from the original image, by means of the Mann‐Whitney U‐test, proved the convolved image to be more appropriate for automatic interpretation.     

Projected hydroclimate changes over Andean basins in central Chile from downscaled CMIP5 models under the low and high emission scenarios

This study examines the projections of hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile (～ 30–40° S) under a low and high emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively). A gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset based on observations is used to drive and validate the VIC macro-scale hydrological model in the region of interest. Historical and future simulations from 19 climate models participating in CMIP5 have been adjusted with the observational dataset and then used to make hydrological projections. By the end of the century, there is a large difference between the scenarios, with projected warming of ～ + 1.2 °C (RCP2.6), ～ +?3.5 °C (RCP8.5) and drying of ～ ? 3% (RCP2.6), ～ ? 30% (RCP8.5). Following the strong drying and warming projected in this region under the RCP8.5 scenario, the VIC model simulates decreases in annual runoff of about 40% by the end of the century. Such strong regional effect of climate change may have large implications for the water resources of this region. Even under the low emission scenario, the Andes snowpack is projected to decrease by 35–45% by mid-century. In more snowmelt-dominated areas, the projected hydrological changes under RCP8.5 go together with more loss in the snowpack (75–85%) and a temporal shift in the center timing of runoff to earlier dates (up to 5 weeks by the end of the century). The severity and frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events are also projected to increase in the future. The occurrence of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases from one to up to five events per 100 years under RCP8.5. Concurrently, probability density function of 3-day peak runoff indicates an increase in the frequency of flood events. The estimated return periods of 3-day peak runoff events depict more drastic changes and increase in the flood risk as higher recurrence intervals are considered by mid-century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, and by the end of the century under RCP8.5.