A random solid‐porous model to simulate the retention curves of soils

This paper describes a random solid‐porous model capable of simulating the structure of porous materials. To this purpose, the grain and pore size distributions as well as the void ratio of the material are required. Solids and pores are distributed at random in the model's space according to a size strategy. Herein, the model is used to simulate the retention curves of soils. The Laplace equation is used to determine the size of the pores able to saturate or dry during a wetting or drying process, respectively. The continuous path principle is used to define those elements that effectively saturate or dry during these processes. With this procedure, it is possible to simulate the main retention curves as well as the scanning curves during wetting–drying cycles. Some experimental results reported in the international literature have been used to test the model. This model can be enhanced to study the mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment transport patterns determined from grain size parameters: Overview and state of the art

Grain size trends have been applied in many diverse sedimentary environments to determine sediment transport paths, generally coinciding with information from tracer studies, current measurements and the orientation of sedimentary structures. The different methods proposed to date are critically analysed and compared with reference to recent field studies. It is concluded that the two-dimensional methods produce comparable results and may in fact complement each other.In spite of the advances, several problems still exist, which include the sampling method and density, the choice of trend types, the relative weight of grain size parameters and the interpretation of results. These are discussed together with possible solutions.     

Climate change and river floods in the European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation

This study presents the first appraisal of the socio-economic impacts of river floods in the European Union in view of climate and socio-economic changes. The assessment is based on two trajectories: (a) no adaptation, where the current levels of protection are kept constant, and (b) adaptation, where the level of protection is increased to defend against future flooding events. As a basis for our analysis we use an ensemble-based pan-European flood hazard assessment for present and future conditions. Socio-economic impacts are estimated by combining flood inundation maps with information on assets exposure and vulnerability. Ensemble-based results indicate that current expected annual population affected of ca. 200,000 is projected to increase up to 360,000 due to the effects of socio-economic development and climate change. Under the no adaptation trajectory current expected annual damages of €5.5 billion/year are projected to reach €98 billion/year by the 2080s due to the combined effects of socio-economic and climate change. Under the adaptation trajectory the avoided damages (benefits) amount to €53 billion/year by the 2080s. An analysis of the potential costs of adaptation associated with the increase in protection suggests that adaptation could be highly cost-effective. There is, however, a wide range around these central numbers reflecting the variability in projected climate. Analysis at the country level shows high damages, and by association high costs of adaptation, in the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Czech Republic. At the country level, there is an even wider range around these central values, thus, pointing to a need to consider climate uncertainty in formulating practical adaptation strategies.     

Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modelling

A key point in the application of multi‐model Bayesian averaging techniques to assess the predictive uncertainty in groundwater modelling applications is the definition of prior model probabilities, which reflect the prior perception about the plausibility of alternative models. In this work the influence of prior knowledge and prior model probabilities on posterior model probabilities, multi‐model predictions, and conceptual model uncertainty estimations is analysed. The sensitivity to prior model probabilities is assessed using an extensive numerical analysis in which the prior probability space of a set of plausible conceptualizations is discretized to obtain a large ensemble of possible combinations of prior model probabilities. Additionally, the value of prior knowledge about alternative models in reducing conceptual model uncertainty is assessed by considering three example knowledge states, expressed as quantitative relations among the alternative models. A constrained maximum entropy approach is used to find the set of prior model probabilities that correspond to the different prior knowledge states. For illustrative purposes, a three‐dimensional hypothetical setup approximated by seven alternative conceptual models is employed. Results show that posterior model probabilities, leading moments of the predictive distributions and estimations of conceptual model uncertainty are very sensitive to prior model probabilities, indicating the relevance of selecting proper prior probabilities. Additionally, including proper prior knowledge improves the predictive performance of the multi‐model approach, expressed by reductions of the multi‐model prediction variances by up to 60% compared with a non‐informative case. However, the ratio between‐model to total variance does not substantially decrease. This suggests that the contribution of conceptual model uncertainty to the total variance cannot be further reduced based only on prior knowledge about the plausibility of alternative models. These results advocate including proper prior knowledge about alternative conceptualizations in combination with extra conditioning data to further reduce conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modelling predictions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 2009–2010 fade of Jupiter’s South Equatorial Belt: Vertical cloud structure models and zonal winds from visible imaging

The South Equatorial Belt (SEB) of Jupiter is known to alternate its appearance at visible wavelengths from a classical belt-like band most of the time to a short-lived zone-like aspect which is called a “fade” of the belt, hereafter SEBF. The albedo change of the SEB is due to a change in the structure and properties of the clouds and upper hazes. Recent works based on infrared observations of the last SEBF have shown that the aerosol density below 1 bar increased in parallel with the reflectivity change. However, the nature of the change in the upper clouds and hazes that produces the visible reflectivity change and whether or not this reflectivity change is accompanied by a change in the winds at the upper cloud level remained unknown. In this paper we focus in the near ultraviolet to near infrared reflected sunlight (255–953 nm) to address these two issues. We characterize the vertical cloud structure above the ammonia condensation level from Hubble Space Telescope images, and the zonal wind velocities from long-term high-quality images coming from the International Outer Planet Watch database, both during the SEB and SEBF phases. We show that reflectivity changes do not happen simultaneously in this wavelength range, but they start earlier in the most deep-sensing filters and end in 2010 with just minor changes in those sensing the highest particle layers. Our models require a substantial increase of the optical thickness of the cloud deck at 1.0 ± 0.4 bar from τ_cloud = 6 ± 2 in July 2009 (SEB phase) to semiinfinite at visual wavelengths in 2010 (SEBF). Upper tropospheric particles (～240–1400 mbar) are also required to become substantially reflectant and their single scattering albedo in the blue changes from ?₀ = 0.905 ± 0.005 in November 2009 to ?₀ = 0.95 ± 0.01 in June 2010. No significant changes were found in the cloud top heights or in the particle density of the tropospheric haze. The disturbance travels from the levels below ～3 bar to a level about 400 ± 100 mbar. We derive an upward velocity of 0.15 ± 0.05 cm/s, in agreement with a diffusive process in Jupiter’s upper troposphere requiring a mean eddy coefficient K ～ 8 × 10⁵ cm² s^?1. On the other hand, cloud tracking on the IOPW imaging showed no significant changes in the zonal wind profile between the SEB and SEBF stages. As in other visually huge changes in Jupiter’s cloud morphology and structure, the wind profile remains robust, possibly indicating a deeply rooted dynamical regime.     

Estimating daily net radiation in the FAO Penman–Monteith method

Heatwave intensity and frequency are predicted to increase in the coming years, and this will bear adverse consequences to the environmental well-being and the socio-economic fabric in urbanized areas. The hazardous combination of increased heat storage and reduced water retention capacities of the land surface make the urban areas warmer than the surrounding rural areas in what is commonly known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The primary motives of this study are to quantify the interaction of this city-scale UHI with synoptic-scale heatwave episodes and to analyze the factors that mediate this interaction. A modified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is utilized to simulate two heatwave episodes in New York City. The land surface scheme in the default WRF model is modified to better represent the surface to atmosphere exchanges over urban areas. Our results indicate that during the heatwave episodes, the daily-averaged UHI in NYC increased by 1.5 K. Furthermore, most of this amplification occurs in the mid-afternoon period when the temperatures peak. Wind direction and urban-rural contrasts in available energy and moisture availability are found to have significant and systematic effects on the UHI, but wind speed plays a secondary role.     

An Overview of Saturn's Equatorial Storms: 1990 - 1997

We present an overview of the studies we have performed of the unusual storm activity that is occurring in the Equatorial Zone (EZ) of Saturn since 1990 based on a long-term CCD imaging (261-953 nm). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.