The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

1D velocity structure of the Po River plain (Northern Italy) assessed by combining strong motion and ambient noise data

Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.     

Estimation procedures for exchangeable Marshall copulas with hydrological application

Complex phenomena in environmental sciences can be conveniently represented by several inter-dependent random variables. In order to describe such situations, copula-based models have been studied during the last year. In this paper, we consider a novel family of bivariate copulas, called exchangeable Marshall copulas. Such copulas describe both positive and (upper) tail association between random variables. Specifically, inference procedures for the family of exchangeable Marshall copulas are introduced, based on the estimation of their (univariate) generator. Moreover, the performance of the proposed methodologies is shown in a simulation study. Finally, an illustration describes how the proposed procedures can be useful in a hydrological application.     

Love wave tomography in Italy from seismic ambient noise

We estimate Love wave empirical Green's functions from cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise to study the crust and uppermost mantle structure in Italy.Transverse-component ambient noise data from October 2005 through March 2007 recorded at 114 seismic stations from the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) national broadband network,the Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network (MedNet) and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) yield more than 2 000 Love wave group velocity measurements using the multiple-filter analysis technique.In the short period band (5-20 s),the cross-correlations show clearly one-sided asymmetric feature due to non-uniform noise distribution and high local activities,and in the long period band (20 s) this feature becomes weak owing to more diffusive noise distribution.Based on these measurements,Love wave group velocity dispersion maps in the 8-34 s period band are constructed,then the SH wave velocity structures from the Love wave dispersions are inverted.The final results obtained from Love wave data are overall in good agreement with those from Rayleigh waves.Both Love and Rayleigh wave inversions all reveal that the Po plain basin is resolved with low velocity at shallow depth,and the Tyrrhenian sea is characterized with higher velocity below 8 km due to its thin oceanic crust.     

Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete girder bridges using Bayesian belief network

Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Syn-thrust deformation across a transverse zone: the Grem–Vedra fault system (central Southern Alps, N Italy)

The lateral continuity of the E?CW trending thrust sheets developed within the Lower to Middle Triassic cover of the central Southern Alps (Orobic belt) is disturbed by the occurrence of several N?CS trending transverse zones, such as the poorly known Grem?CVedra Transverse Zone (GVTZ). The GVTZ developed during the emplacement of the up to six S-verging thrust sheets consisting of Lower to Middle Triassic units, occurring immediately south of the Orobic Anticlines. The transverse zone, active during thrust emplacement related to the early Alpine compressions which pre-date the Adamello intrusion, includes three major vertical shear zones, the Grem, Pezzel and Zuccone faults. The major structure of the transverse zone is the dextral Grem fault, forming a deep lateral ramp between thrust sheets 3 and 5. A similar evolution also occurred along the Zuccone and Pezzel faults, which show a left-lateral displacement of syn-thrust folds. The Grem fault was later reactivated as an oblique tear fault during the emplacement of the Orobic Anticlines, due to back-thrusting along out-of-sequence thrust surfaces (Clusone fault). Transpressional deformations along the fault zone are recorded by the rotation of major syn-thrust folds, which also suggest a horizontal offset close to 0.5?km. Records of the first stage of evolution of the Grem fault are better preserved along its northern segment, and structural relationships suggest that it propagated southward and downward in the growing thrust stack. The study of the meso and megascopic structures developed along the GVTZ constrains the evolution of the transverse zone, illustrating the complex deformational phenomena occurring in a transpressional regime. The GVTZ probably reflects the existence of pre-existing tectonic lineaments with a similar orientation. Evidence of pre-existing structures are not preserved in the exposed units, nevertheless the N?CS extensional fault systems that characterize the Norian to Jurassic rifting history of the Lombardian basin are valid candidates.     

Seismic response of L��Aquila downtown from comparison between 2D synthetics spectral ratios of SH, P-SV and Rayleigh waves and observations of the 2009 earthquake sequence

This is the first part of a study on the seismic response of the L’Aquila city using 2D simulation and experimental data. We have studied two velocity-depth models with the aim of outlining the behavior of a velocity reversal in the top layer, which is associated with the stiff Brecce de L’Aquila unit (BrA). In this setting, the SMTH model is topped by a layer with about 2:1 impedance contrast with the underlying layer while the NORV model has no velocity reversal. We have simulated the propagation of SH and P-SV wavefields in the range 0–10 Hz for incidence 0°–90°. Earthquake spectral ratios of the horizontal and vertical components at six sites in L’Aquila downtown are compared to corresponding synthetics spectral ratios. The vertical component of P-SV synthetics enables us to investigate a remarkable amplification effect seen in the vertical component of the recorded strong motion. Sites AQ04 and AQ05 are best matched by synthetics from the NORV model while FAQ5 and AQ06 have a better match with synthetics spectral ratios from the SMTH model. All simulations show this behavior systematically, with horizontal and near-horizontal incident waves predicting the overall pattern of matches more clearly than vertical and near-vertical incidence. The model inferences are in agreement with new geological data reporting lateral passages in the top layer from the stiff BrA to softer sediments. Matches are good in terms of frequency of the first amplification peak and of spectral amplitude: the horizontal components have spectral ratio peaks predominantly at 0.5 Hz in the simulations and at 0.7 Hz in the data, both with amplitudes of 4, while the vertical component spectral ratios reach values of 6 at frequencies of about 1 Hz in both data and simulations. The vertical component spectral ratios are very well matched using Rayleigh waves with incidence at 90°. The NORV model without the velocity reversal predicts spectral ratio peaks for the horizontal components at frequencies up to 6 Hz. The reversal of velocity acts as a low-pass frequency filter on the horizontal components reducing the amplification effect of the sediment filled valley.