A New Method for the Estimation of Avalanche Distance Exceeded Probabilities

A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫₀ ^∞ P^*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P^* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.     

High-T phase transition of synthetic ANaB(LiMg)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 amphibole: an X-ray synchrotron powder diffraction and FTIR spectroscopic study

The synthetic amphibole Na_0.95(Li_0.95Mg_1.05)Mg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P2₁ /m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and 3,712 cm⁻¹, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm⁻¹. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (^A□_0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a T _c of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P2₁ /m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ^ANa_0.8^B(Na_0.8Mg_1.2)^CMg₅Si₈O₂₂(OH)₂ indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the T _c of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy.     

1D velocity structure of the Po River plain (Northern Italy) assessed by combining strong motion and ambient noise data

Strong ground motions recorded on the sedimentary deposits of the Po River alluvial plain during the Emilia (Northern Italy) Mw 5.7 earthquake of May 29, 2012 are used to assess the vertical profile of shear-wave velocity above the limestone basement. Data were collected by a linear array installed for site effect studies after the Mw 5.9 mainshock of May 20, 2012. The array stations, equipped with both strong and weak motion sensors, are aligned in the South–North direction, at distances ranging from 1 to 26 km from the epicenter. The vertical components of ground motion show very distinctive, large-amplitude, low-frequency dispersive wave trains. Wavelet analysis yields group-velocity dispersion curve in the 0.2–0.7 Hz frequency band. The availability of a long ambient noise record allows estimates of the site resonance frequency along with its stability among stations. The joint inversion of dispersion of surface waves and ellipticity curves derived from ambient noise H/V allows extending investigations down to the sediment-limestone interface, at a depth of about 5,000 m. Our results add new information about the velocity structure at a scale that is intermediate between the local scale already investigated by other authors with small-aperture arrays using ambient noise and the regional scale inferred from modeling of seismogram waveforms recorded at hundreds of kilometers from the source.     

Syn-thrust deformation across a transverse zone: the Grem–Vedra fault system (central Southern Alps, N Italy)

The lateral continuity of the E?CW trending thrust sheets developed within the Lower to Middle Triassic cover of the central Southern Alps (Orobic belt) is disturbed by the occurrence of several N?CS trending transverse zones, such as the poorly known Grem?CVedra Transverse Zone (GVTZ). The GVTZ developed during the emplacement of the up to six S-verging thrust sheets consisting of Lower to Middle Triassic units, occurring immediately south of the Orobic Anticlines. The transverse zone, active during thrust emplacement related to the early Alpine compressions which pre-date the Adamello intrusion, includes three major vertical shear zones, the Grem, Pezzel and Zuccone faults. The major structure of the transverse zone is the dextral Grem fault, forming a deep lateral ramp between thrust sheets 3 and 5. A similar evolution also occurred along the Zuccone and Pezzel faults, which show a left-lateral displacement of syn-thrust folds. The Grem fault was later reactivated as an oblique tear fault during the emplacement of the Orobic Anticlines, due to back-thrusting along out-of-sequence thrust surfaces (Clusone fault). Transpressional deformations along the fault zone are recorded by the rotation of major syn-thrust folds, which also suggest a horizontal offset close to 0.5?km. Records of the first stage of evolution of the Grem fault are better preserved along its northern segment, and structural relationships suggest that it propagated southward and downward in the growing thrust stack. The study of the meso and megascopic structures developed along the GVTZ constrains the evolution of the transverse zone, illustrating the complex deformational phenomena occurring in a transpressional regime. The GVTZ probably reflects the existence of pre-existing tectonic lineaments with a similar orientation. Evidence of pre-existing structures are not preserved in the exposed units, nevertheless the N?CS extensional fault systems that characterize the Norian to Jurassic rifting history of the Lombardian basin are valid candidates.     

Eruptive history and petrologic evolution of the Albano multiple maar (Alban Hills, Central Italy)

A comprehensive volcanological study of the Albano multiple maar (Alban Hills, Italy) using (i) ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology of the most complete stratigraphic section and other proximal and distal outcrops and (ii) petrographic observations, phase analyses of major and trace elements, and Sr and O isotopic analyses of the pyroclastic deposits shows that volcanic activity at Albano was strongly discontinuous, with a first eruptive cycle at 69±1 ka producing at least two eruptions, and a second cycle with two peaks at 39±1 and 36±1 ka producing at least four eruptions. Contrary to previous studies, we did not find evidence of magmatic or hydromagmatic eruptions younger than 36±1 ka. The activity of Albano was fed by a new batch of primary magma compositionally different from that of the older activity of the Alban Hills; moreover, the REE and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr data indicate that the Albano magma originated from an enriched metasomatized mantle. According to the modeled liquid line of descent, this magma differentiated under the influence of magma/limestone wall rock interaction. Our detailed eruptive and petrologic reconstruction of the Albano Maar evolution substantiates the dormant state of the Alban Hills Volcanic District. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at Editorial responsibility: J. Donnelly-Nolan An erratum to this article can be found at     

The humin structure of mucilage aggregates in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas: hypothesis about the reasonable causes of mucilage formation

Sixteen mucilages sampled in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas during 1999–2001 were characterised using spectroscopic [Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR); colorimetric], chromatographic [thin-layer chromatography (TLC)], and elemental analysis techniques. Most samples contained comparable fractions of organic and inorganic compounds, with the exception of a few samples where the inorganic fraction was greater than the organic fraction. Carbohydrates were important in the samples rich in organic matter, while carbonate and silica (quartz and biogenic silica) were the most important constituents of the inorganic fraction. Carbonate and silica were the only important constituents of the samples with a very low organic content.According to chemical analyses, mucilage aggregates show the typical structure of humin—the insoluble fraction of the humic substance. Classification of mucilage samples as humin-like compounds, together with a reexamination of the factors involved in the formation of organic aggregates in marine environment, has led to the formulation of a reasonable hypothesis for mucilage formation.     

Sub-seismic scale fracture pattern and in situ permeability data in the chalk atop of the Krempe salt ridge at Lägerdorf, NW Germany: Inferences on synfolding stress field evolution and its impact on fracture connectivity

Chalk is exposed in the Heidestrasse quarry at Lägerdorf, at the top of the NE-SW trending Krempe salt ridge. Structural data indicate the presence of two joint sets, striking almost parallel and perpendicular to the salt ridge, respectively, and of a set of conjugate extensional faults and fault zones striking NW-SE, i.e. almost perpendicular to the salt ridge. Within the overall NW-SE trend of joints and faults, strike variations occur from the massive chalk exposed in the lower half of the quarry, to the overlying layered chalk. A large variability characterizes the normalized spacing of both joint sets, which does not show any clear trend with layer dip. In situ measurements indicate that the cross-sectional permeability of tight joints increases 1-2 orders of magnitude with respect to the undeformed chalk. We propose that joint and fault azimuthal variability resulted from changes through time of the stress ellipsoid at the top of the salt ridge, while joint spacing variability is associated with the weak mechanical influence of bedding in chalk. Azimuthal variability improves fracture connectivity and, hence, permeability and fluid flow.     

The Density and Masses of Obscured Black Holes

Recent Chandra and XMM-Newton surveys have uncovered a large fraction of the obscured AGN responsible of the hard X-ray background. One of the most intriguing results of extensive programs of follow-up observations concerns the optical and near-infrared properties of the hard X-ray sources counterparts. More specifically, for a significant fraction of hard X-ray obscured sources the AGN responsible of the high X-ray luminosity remains elusive over a wide range of wavelengths from soft X-rays to near-infrared. This very observational result opens the possibility to investigate the host of bright obscured quasars in some detail. Here we briefly report on some preliminar results obtained for a small sample of elusive AGN in the HELLAS2XMM survey.     

On the nature of the z=0 X-ray absorbers: I. Clues from an external group

We describe the main features of the evolutionary code ATON 3.1 and its latest version, particularly deviced to be apt for follow up asteroseismology applications. An older version of the code including rotational evolution is also shortly described.