Estimation procedures for exchangeable Marshall copulas with hydrological application

Complex phenomena in environmental sciences can be conveniently represented by several inter-dependent random variables. In order to describe such situations, copula-based models have been studied during the last year. In this paper, we consider a novel family of bivariate copulas, called exchangeable Marshall copulas. Such copulas describe both positive and (upper) tail association between random variables. Specifically, inference procedures for the family of exchangeable Marshall copulas are introduced, based on the estimation of their (univariate) generator. Moreover, the performance of the proposed methodologies is shown in a simulation study. Finally, an illustration describes how the proposed procedures can be useful in a hydrological application.     

Seismic fragility of reinforced concrete girder bridges using Bayesian belief network

Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ESEEM of industrial quartz powders: insights into crystal chemistry of Al defects

A set of raw industrial materials, that is, pure quartz and quartz-rich mixtures, were investigated through electron paramagnetic resonance and electron spin echo-envelope modulation spectroscopies, with the aim of evaluating the effective role played by defect centres and of assessing whether they can be used to monitor changes in the physical properties of quartz powders with reference to their health effects. The obtained results point to two interactions of the Al defect centres with H⁺, hosted in sites within the channels parallel and perpendicular to the c axis of quartz, respectively. These two Al/H⁺ (h_Al) centres exhibit a weak chemical bond, and their relative amounts appear to be modified/controlled by the thermo-mechanical processes underwent by powders. Indeed, a mechanically promoted inter-conversion between the two kinds of site is suggested. As a consequence, the h_Al centres are effective in monitoring even modest activations of powders, through thermal or mechanical processes, and they are also supposed to play a specific, relevant role in quartz reactivity during the considered industrial processes.     

Syn-thrust deformation across a transverse zone: the Grem–Vedra fault system (central Southern Alps, N Italy)

The lateral continuity of the E?CW trending thrust sheets developed within the Lower to Middle Triassic cover of the central Southern Alps (Orobic belt) is disturbed by the occurrence of several N?CS trending transverse zones, such as the poorly known Grem?CVedra Transverse Zone (GVTZ). The GVTZ developed during the emplacement of the up to six S-verging thrust sheets consisting of Lower to Middle Triassic units, occurring immediately south of the Orobic Anticlines. The transverse zone, active during thrust emplacement related to the early Alpine compressions which pre-date the Adamello intrusion, includes three major vertical shear zones, the Grem, Pezzel and Zuccone faults. The major structure of the transverse zone is the dextral Grem fault, forming a deep lateral ramp between thrust sheets 3 and 5. A similar evolution also occurred along the Zuccone and Pezzel faults, which show a left-lateral displacement of syn-thrust folds. The Grem fault was later reactivated as an oblique tear fault during the emplacement of the Orobic Anticlines, due to back-thrusting along out-of-sequence thrust surfaces (Clusone fault). Transpressional deformations along the fault zone are recorded by the rotation of major syn-thrust folds, which also suggest a horizontal offset close to 0.5?km. Records of the first stage of evolution of the Grem fault are better preserved along its northern segment, and structural relationships suggest that it propagated southward and downward in the growing thrust stack. The study of the meso and megascopic structures developed along the GVTZ constrains the evolution of the transverse zone, illustrating the complex deformational phenomena occurring in a transpressional regime. The GVTZ probably reflects the existence of pre-existing tectonic lineaments with a similar orientation. Evidence of pre-existing structures are not preserved in the exposed units, nevertheless the N?CS extensional fault systems that characterize the Norian to Jurassic rifting history of the Lombardian basin are valid candidates.     

Seismic response of L��Aquila downtown from comparison between 2D synthetics spectral ratios of SH, P-SV and Rayleigh waves and observations of the 2009 earthquake sequence

This is the first part of a study on the seismic response of the L’Aquila city using 2D simulation and experimental data. We have studied two velocity-depth models with the aim of outlining the behavior of a velocity reversal in the top layer, which is associated with the stiff Brecce de L’Aquila unit (BrA). In this setting, the SMTH model is topped by a layer with about 2:1 impedance contrast with the underlying layer while the NORV model has no velocity reversal. We have simulated the propagation of SH and P-SV wavefields in the range 0–10 Hz for incidence 0°–90°. Earthquake spectral ratios of the horizontal and vertical components at six sites in L’Aquila downtown are compared to corresponding synthetics spectral ratios. The vertical component of P-SV synthetics enables us to investigate a remarkable amplification effect seen in the vertical component of the recorded strong motion. Sites AQ04 and AQ05 are best matched by synthetics from the NORV model while FAQ5 and AQ06 have a better match with synthetics spectral ratios from the SMTH model. All simulations show this behavior systematically, with horizontal and near-horizontal incident waves predicting the overall pattern of matches more clearly than vertical and near-vertical incidence. The model inferences are in agreement with new geological data reporting lateral passages in the top layer from the stiff BrA to softer sediments. Matches are good in terms of frequency of the first amplification peak and of spectral amplitude: the horizontal components have spectral ratio peaks predominantly at 0.5 Hz in the simulations and at 0.7 Hz in the data, both with amplitudes of 4, while the vertical component spectral ratios reach values of 6 at frequencies of about 1 Hz in both data and simulations. The vertical component spectral ratios are very well matched using Rayleigh waves with incidence at 90°. The NORV model without the velocity reversal predicts spectral ratio peaks for the horizontal components at frequencies up to 6 Hz. The reversal of velocity acts as a low-pass frequency filter on the horizontal components reducing the amplification effect of the sediment filled valley.     

HTP21/c–C2/c phase transition and kinetics of Fe2+–Mg order–disorder of an Fe-poor pigeonite: implications for the cooling history of ureilites

A natural Ca-poor pigeonite (Wo₆En₇₆Fs₁₈) from the ureilite meteorite sample PCA82506-3, free of exsolved augite, was studied by in situ high-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction. The sample, monoclinic P2₁/c, was annealed up to 1,093°C to induce a phase transition from P2₁/c to C2/c symmetry. The variation with increasing temperature of the lattice parameters and of the intensity of the b-type reflections (h + k = 2n + 1, present only in the P2₁/c phase) showed a displacive phase transition P2₁/c to C2/c at a transition temperature T _Tr = 944°C, first order in character. The Fe–Mg exchange kinetics was studied by ex situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction in a range of temperatures between the closure temperature of the Fe–Mg exchange reaction and the transition temperature. Isothermal disordering annealing experiments, using the IW buffer, were performed on three crystals at 790, 840 and 865°C. Linear regression of ln k _D versus 1/T yielded the following equation: ln k_\textD = - 3717( ±416)/T(K) + 1.290( ±0.378);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \,k_{\text{D}} = - 3717( \pm 416)/T(K) + 1.290( \pm 0.378);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . The closure temperature (T _c) calculated using this equation was ∼740(±30)°C. Analysis of the kinetic data carried out taking into account the e.s.d.'s of the atomic fractions used to define the Fe–Mg degree of order, performed according to Mueller’s model, allowed us to retrieve the disordering rate constants C ₀ K _dis⁺ for all three temperatures yielding the following Arrhenius relation: ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = ln K₀ - Q/(RT) = 20.99( ±3.74) - 26406( ±4165)/T(K);    (R² = 0.988) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = \ln \,K_{0} - Q/(RT) = 20.99( \pm 3.74) - 26406( \pm 4165)/T(K);\quad (R^{2} = 0.988) . An activation energy of 52.5(±4) kcal/mol for the Fe–Mg exchange process was obtained. The above relation was used to calculate the following Arrhenius relation modified as a function of X _Fe (in the range of X _Fe = 0.20–0.50): ln( C₀ K_\textdis ⁺ ) = (21.185 - 1.47X_\textFe ) - \frac(27267 - 4170X_\textFe )T(K) \ln \left( {C_{0} K_{\text{dis}}^{ + } } \right) = (21.185 - 1.47X_{\text{Fe}} ) - {\frac{{(27267 - 4170X_{\text{Fe}} )}}{T(K)}} . The cooling time constant, η = 6 × 10⁻¹ K⁻¹ year⁻¹ calculated on the PCA82506-3 sample, provided a cooling rate of the order of 1°C/min consistent with the extremely fast late cooling history of the ureilite parent body after impact excavation.     

Magnetic properties and cation ordering of nanopowders of the synthetic analogue of kuramite, Cu3SnS4

An extensive characterisation of the magnetic properties of synthetic powders of kuramite, with formal composition Cu₃SnS₄, was performed. Powders were investigated through superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) magnetometry, electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), scanning and transmission electron microscopies (SEM and TEM) and microanalysis. SEM and TEM reveal the presence of nanodimensioned particles. XRPD clearly shows that Cu₃SnS₄ crystallised in a cubic sphalerite-type structural model, in spite of the stannite-type tetragonal structure described for the natural phase. This difference arises from a full random distribution of cations. Synthetic kuramite nanopowders exhibit a marked paramagnetism, originated by the presence of Cu(II), definitely assessed by EPR measurements. Moreover, the overall magnetic behaviour of the sample cannot be simply ascribed to diluted paramagnetism, and this suggests the presence of strong superexchange interactions among Cu(II) ions even at room temperature. The main consequences of these results are the definitive assessment of the chemical formula Cu(I)₂Cu(II)SnS₄ and of a random distribution of Cu(II), Cu(I) and Sn(IV) ions within the available tetrahedral sites.     

Polyphase thrusting and dyke emplacement in the central Southern Alps (Northern Italy)

The Triassic succession of the central Southern Alps (Italy) is stacked into several units bounded by south-verging low-angle thrust faults, which are related to two successive steps of crustal shortening. The thrust surfaces are cut by high-angle extensional and strike-slip faults, which controlled the emplacement of hypabissal magmatic intrusions that post-date thrusts motions. Intrusion ages based on SHRIMP U–Pb zircon dating span between 42 ± 1 and 39 ± 1 Ma, suggesting close time relationships with the earliest Adamello intrusion stages and, more in general, with the widespread calc-alkaline magmatism described in the Southern Alps. Fission-track ages of magmatic apatites are indistinguishable from U–Pb crystallization ages of zircons, suggesting that the intrusion occurred in country rocks already exhumed above the partial annealing zone of apatite (depth < 2–4 km). These data indicate that the central Southern Alps were already structured and largely exhumed in the Middle Eocene. Although we describe minor faults affecting magmatic bodies and local reactivations of older structures, no major internal deformations have occurred in the area after the Bartonian. Neogene deformations were instead concentrated farther south, along the frontal part of the belt.