HASSET: a probability event tree tool to evaluate future volcanic scenarios using Bayesian inference

Event tree structures constitute one of the most useful and necessary tools in modern volcanology for assessment of hazards from future volcanic scenarios (those that culminate in an eruptive event as well as those that do not). They are particularly relevant for evaluation of long- and short-term probabilities of occurrence of possible volcanic scenarios and their potential impacts on urbanized areas. In this paper, we introduce Hazard Assessment Event Tree (HASSET), a probability tool, built on an event tree structure that uses Bayesian inference to estimate the probability of occurrence of a future volcanic scenario and to evaluate the most relevant sources of uncertainty from the corresponding volcanic system. HASSET includes hazard assessment of noneruptive and nonmagmatic volcanic scenarios, that is, episodes of unrest that do not evolve into volcanic eruption but have an associated volcanic hazard (e.g., sector collapse and phreatic explosion), as well as unrest episodes triggered by external triggers rather than the magmatic system alone. Additionally, HASSET introduces the Delta method to assess precision of the probability estimates, by reporting a 1 standard deviation variability interval around the expected value for each scenario. HASSET is presented as a free software package in the form of a plug-in for the open source geographic information system Quantum Gis (QGIS), providing a graphically supported computation of the event tree structure in an interactive and user-friendly way. We also include further in-depth explanations for each node together with an application of HASSET to Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain).     

Mediterranean warming is especially due to summer season

We created a new homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature data set (1955–2007) for the central Mediterranean area of Tuscany (Italy). Yearly and seasonal long-term trends of some climatic and extreme climatic indices were investigated. The results highlighted a positive trend for mean temperature of about 0.9°C per 50 years with a slightly more pronounced increase in maximum temperature. Seasonal analysis revealed a by far much greater increase in summer (June, July, August) and spring (March, April, May) temperature in respect of autumn and winter, this finding consistent with most recent Mediterranean evidences. Warm extremes showed an overall tendency to increase, while a slight not significant decrease trend was found in regard to frost days and cold extremes. Comparisons with different patterns of Mediterranean warming confirmed the magnitude of recent very fast rise in temperature, especially during summer. This change could be due to last decades modifications of general circulation patterns and land–temperature, land–precipitation positive feedback processes dependent from soil moisture. All these results confirm that the Mediterranean is a region especially responsive and thus very vulnerable to climate change.     

Drying and dying of a subducted slab: Coupled Li and B isotope variations in Western Anatolia Cenozoic Volcanism

In lavas spanning ~ 10Ma of subduction-related volcanism in Western Anatolia, we observe remarkably similar patterns of δ⁷Li and δ¹¹B variation. In this setting, magmatism records a transition from calc–alkaline to ultrapotassic character, consistent with overall lower mean extents of melting, and a changing mantle source that reflects a fractionating, higher temperature slab input consistent with the gradual cessation of subduction. Subsequent rift-related intraplate magmatism record δ⁷Li signatures within the range observed for MORBs and OIBs, indicating an abrupt transition to a mantle source unmodified by subduction.     

Multi-methodological investigation of kunzite, hiddenite, alexandrite, elbaite and topaz, based on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy and conventional analytical techniques for supporting mineralogical characterization

Gem-quality alexandrite, hiddenite and kunzite, elbaite and topaz minerals were characterized through a multi-methodological investigation based on EMPA-WDS, LA-ICP-MS, and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). With respect to the others, the latter technique enables a simultaneous multi-elemental composition without any sample preparation and the detection of light elements, such as Li, Be and B. The criteria for the choice of minerals were: (a) the presence of chromophore elements in minor contents and/or as traces; (b) the presence of light lithophile elements (Li, Be and B); (c) different crystal chemistry complexity. The results show that LIBS can be employed in mineralogical studies for the identification and characterization of minerals, and as a fast screening method to determine the chemical composition, including the chromophore and light lithophile elements.     

Magnetic history of a dyke on Mount Etna (Sicily)

During the 1989 eruption of Mount Etna, two fracture systems, trending c. N45°E and N150°E, opened at the foot of its 3000 m high SE Crater and propagated quickly downslope to distances of ≈3 and 7 km, respectively. The northeastern fracture fed a flank eruption, whereas the southeastern fracture remained dry and offered contrasting volcanological and geophysical evidence of the presence of magma at a shallow depth. During the opening of this non-eruptive fracture system, a differential magnetic network was set up on a short profile across its distant extremity. Initially, the magnetic field did not display any change along the profile between frequent surveys. However, repeated measurements at intervals of about 3 months for two years revealed the slow build-up of a 130 nT anomaly. The anomaly vanishes laterally within 0.2 km of the surface expression of the fracture system. This exceptional set of observations constrains the location and time of cooling of a shallow dyke. The increase in magnetization of the dyke inferred by the rate of growth of the anomaly leads to the interpretation that the dyke was emplaced near the end of the eruption.     

Fourteen years of multifrequency-coordinated observations of the X-ray/Be system A 0535+26/HDE 245770

Within the framework of a very long multifrequency campaign of coordinated, and very often simultaneous, observations of the transient X-ray/Be system A 0535+26/HDE 245770, we present a summary of this large collection of data taken with IUE and ASTRON satellites as well as with many ground-based telescopes in optical and IR regions.In this paper we emphasize the study of the physics and dynamics of the mass transfer at periastron and subsequent X-ray flaring, which is a typical problem of the X-ray/Be binary system class.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

Compressional behaviour of CaNiSi2O6 clinopyroxene: bulk modulus systematic and cation type in clinopyroxenes

A single-crystal of composition CaNiSi₂O₆ (space group C2/c) was investigated at high pressure up to about 7.8 GPa by X-ray diffraction. The unit-cell parameters were measured at 18 different pressures. The P-V data were fitted by a third-order Birch-Murnaghan equation of state V₀=435.21(1) ų, K ₀=117.6(3) GPa and K^=6.4(1). The linear axial compressibilities _a, _b, _c and a sin are 2.14(1), 3.00(1), 2.43(1) and 1.63(1) × 10–3 GPa^–1. Comparing the compressibility data with other CaM1Si₂O₆ pyroxenes we suggest that the empirical K × V = constant relationships are followed in C2/c pyroxenes only if the same valence electron character is shared.     

Seasonal and interannual patterns of distribution and diet of bluefish within a Middle Atlantic bight estuary in relation to abiotic and biotic factors

Seasonal and interannual patterns in the spatial distribution of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) within a Middle Atlantic Bight estuary were examined using multipanel gillnets fished biweekly at 14 fixeds stations in the Sandy Hook Bay-N avesink River estuary during May–November of 1998 and 1999. To characterize habitats along the estuarine gradient, we measured several abiotic and biotic variables concurrently with gillnet sampling. Juvenile (age-0 and age-1+) bluefish were captured regularly during both years along with large numbers of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), which were confirmed by diet analyses to be bluefish’s primary forage species. The date of initial appearance of age-0 bluefish and menhaden in the estuary varied between years and may have been related to interannual differences in seawater temperatures on the continental shelf during spring. Delayed estuarine arrival of prey fishes may have contributed to variability in bluefish diets between years. Within the estuary, bluefish spatial distribution were consistent across seasons and years: bluefish were most common in areas associated with high concentrations of suspended materials and the presence of menhaden. Community analyses also indicated habitat overlap between bluefish and menhaden. Spatial distribution patterns revealed the consistent occurrence of piscivorous bluefish in shallow estuarine habitats that retained suspended materials and aggregated prey fishes. Foraging success of bluefish and other estuarine piscivores may be closely linked with the availability of these productive habitat, highlighting the need for future study of biological interactions and the governing physical processes.