Understanding single-station ground motion variability and uncertainty (sigma): lessons learnt from EUROSEISTEST

Accelerometric data from the well-studied valley EUROSEISTEST are used to investigate ground motion uncertainty and variability. We define a simple local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and investigate changes in standard deviation (σ) and its components, the between-event variability (τ) and within-event variability (φ). Improving seismological metadata significantly reduces τ (30–50%), which in turn reduces the total σ. Improving site information reduces the systematic site-to-site variability, φ _S2S (20–30%), in turn reducing φ, and ultimately, σ. Our values of standard deviations are lower than global values from literature, and closer to path-specific than site-specific values. However, our data have insufficient azimuthal coverage for single-path analysis. Certain stations have higher ground-motion variability, possibly due to topography, basin edge or downgoing wave effects. Sensitivity checks show that 3 recordings per event is a sufficient data selection criterion, however, one of the dataset’s advantages is the large number of recordings per station (9–90) that yields good site term estimates. We examine uncertainty components binning our data with magnitude from 0.01 to 2 s; at smaller magnitudes, τ decreases and φ _SS increases, possibly due to κ and source-site trade-offs Finally, we investigate the alternative approach of computing φ _SS using existing GMPEs instead of creating an ad hoc local GMPE. This is important where data are insufficient to create one, or when site-specific PSHA is performed. We show that global GMPEs may still capture φ _SS , provided that: (1) the magnitude scaling errors are accommodated by the event terms; (2) there are no distance scaling errors (use of a regionally applicable model). Site terms (φ _S2S ) computed by different global GMPEs (using different site-proxies) vary significantly, especially for hard-rock sites. This indicates that GMPEs may be poorly constrained where they are sometimes most needed, i.e., for hard rock.     

An absolute calibration site for radar altimeters in the continental domain: Lake Issykkul in Central Asia

Altimetry missions such as Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, GFO and ENVISAT have been widely used in the continental domain over lakes, rivers and wetland although they were mostly dedicated to oceanic studies. Knowledge of the instrumental biases is a key issue. Numerous sites have been dedicated to calibration purposes, either in the oceanic domain (Harvest offshore platform in California, Corsica, Bass Strait in Australia) or over lakes (Lake Erie in United States). A new site (Lake Issykkul in Kirghizstan) is proposed for calibration in the continental domain. This lake is covered by past (T/P) and current radar altimetry satellites (Jason-1, T/P, GFO, and ENVISAT). Several in situ water levels and local meteorological variables are available at the site. Located in a mountainous area, it offers an opportunity for calibration far away from all other existing sites and very different environment contexts. Two GPS campaigns have been conducted on the lake in 2004 and in 2005. They consisted of cruises with stations installed onboard a boat following the satellite ground tracks, and onshore settings. This enabled estimating a bias for each altimeter and each tracking algorithm available. Biases obtained for Envisat, GFO, T/P and Jason-1 using the default ocean tracker (respectively, 48.1 ± 6.6, 7.5 ± 4.0, 0 ± 4.3 and 7.0 ± 5.5 cm) agree with biases published at the other calibration sites. For Jason-1, there is a significant disagreement with results obtained in the ocean field (7 cm instead of 13 cm) but is coherent with bias obtained on the Lake Erie site. Erroneous estimates of the sea state bias correction from non-oceanic-like waveforms is discussed as a possible explanation. Errors in the ionospheric, wet and dry tropospheric corrections for the continental domain are also highlighted and quantified.     

A Lagrangian Stochastic Model for Heavy Particle Dispersion in the Atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer

The dispersion of heavy particles and pollutants is often simulated with Lagrangian stochastic (LS) models. Although these models have been employed successfully over land, the free surface at the air-sea interface complicates the implementation of traditional LS models. We present an adaptation of traditional LS models to the atmospheric marine boundary layer (MBL), where the bottom boundary is represented by a realistic wavy surface that moves and deforms. In addition, the correlation function for the turbulent flow following a particle is extended to the anisotropic, unsteady case. Our new model reproduces behaviour for Lagrangian turbulence in a stratified air flow that departs only slightly from the expected behaviour in isotropic turbulence. When solving for the trajectory of a heavy particle in the air flow, the modelled turbulent forcing on the particle also behaves remarkably well. For example, the spectrum of the turbulence at the particle location follows that of a massless particle for time scales approximately larger than the Stokes’ particle response time. We anticipate that this model will prove especially useful in the context of sea-spray dispersion and its associated momentum, sensible and latent heat, and gas fluxes between spray droplets and the atmosphere.     

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979–2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.     

Influence of the microstructural properties of biocemented sand on its mechanical behavior

The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space, coordination number, contact surface area, and types of contact. In the present work, some of these microscopic properties are computed, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of biocemented sand. These properties are then used as an input in current analytical models to estimate the elastic properties (Young and shear moduli) and the strength properties (Coulomb cohesion). For the elastic properties, the analytical estimates (contact cement theory model) are compared with classical bounds, self-consistent estimate and numerical results obtained by direct computation (FEM computation) on the same 3D images. Concerning the cohesion, an analytical model initially developed to estimate the cohesion due to suction in unsaturated soils is modified to evaluate the macroscopic cohesion of biocemented sands. Such analytical model is calibrated on experimental data obtained from triaxial tests performed on the same biocemented sand. In overall, the presented results point out the important role of some microstructural parameters, notably those related to the contact, on such effective parameters.     

Apparent discrepancy in contamination history of a sub-tropical estuary evaluated through 210Pb profile and chronostratigraphical markers

Zn and Cd concentrations, stable lead isotopes and ²¹⁰Pb-derived chronology were determined in a sediment core sampled at Sepetiba Bay (South-eastern Brazil). During the last decades, the bay’s watershed has been modified by the increase of industrial activities and human interventions. In particular, Zn and Cd ore treatment plants were built near the coast in 1960 and 1970, respectively, and water has been diverted from the adjacent Paraíba do Sul River watershed since 1950. The core collected at shallow depth near the industrial area exhibits four successive events: (i) at 50 cm depth, a change in the ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio from about 1.162 to more than 1.18 might be the result of the São Francisco Channel opening and water diversion from Paraíba do Sul river; (ii) at 40 cm depth, Zn concentration starts to increase (up to 0.8 mg g⁻¹) (iii) above 30 cm depth, relatively high Cd concentrations (up to 1.6 μg g⁻¹) are observed and (iv) at 16 cm depth, change in unsupported ²¹⁰Pb slope is probably related to a waste dam built to prevent strong metal contamination in the bay. Sediment accumulation rates evaluated by Zn and Cd profiles used as time-markers are higher than those calculated from ²¹⁰Pb-based chronology models. Using the constant initial concentration (CIC) model both events are supposed to date back to about 1884 and 1902, respectively, while using the constant rate of supply (CRS) model it shifts to about 1925 and 1935. Such discrepancies are probably assigned to the fact that these models do not take into account site-specific local sedimentation dynamics. In the study area, particles deposition seems to be controlled by enrichment with unsupported ²¹⁰Pb transported by runoff from a mangrove flat bank. Chronology derived from a model that assumes an exponential increase of the initial ²¹⁰Pb activity fits well with the estimated rates obtained from historical events.     

Surface properties, solubility and dissolution kinetics of bamboo phytoliths

Although phytoliths, constituted mainly by micrometric opal, exhibit an important control on silicon cycle in superficial continental environments, their thermodynamic properties and reactivity in aqueous solution are still poorly known. In this work, we determined the solubility and dissolution rates of bamboo phytoliths collected in the Réunion Island and characterized their surface properties via electrophoretic measurements and potentiometric titrations in a wide range of pH. The solubility product of “soil” phytoliths ( at 25 °C) is equal to that of vitreous silica and is 17 times higher than that of quartz. Similarly, the enthalpy of phytoliths dissolution reaction is close to that of amorphous silica but is significantly lower than the enthalpy of quartz dissolution. Electrophoretic measurements yield isoelectric point pH_IEP = 1.2 ± 0.1 and 2.5 ± 0.2 for “soil” (native) and “heated” (450 °C heating to remove organic matter) phytoliths, respectively. Surface acid-base titrations allowed generation of a 2-pK surface complexation model. Phytoliths dissolution rates, measured in mixed-flow reactors at far from equilibrium conditions at 2 ? pH ? 12, were found to be intermediate between those of quartz and vitreous silica. The dissolution rate dependence on pH was modeled within the concept of surface coordination theory using the equation:

     

Nonlinear Formulation of the Bulk Surface Stress over Breaking Waves: Feedback Mechanisms from Air-flow Separation

Historically, our understanding of the air-sea surface stress has been derived from engineering studies of turbulent flows over flat solid surfaces, and more recently, over rigid complex geometries. Over the ocean however, the presence of a free, deformable, moving surface gives rise to a more complicated drag formulation. In fact, within the constant-stress turbulent atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean, the total air-sea stress not only includes the traditional turbulent and viscous components but also incorporates surface-wave effects such as wave growth or decay, air-flow separation, and surface separation in the form of sea-spray droplets. Because each individual stress component depends on and alters the sea state, a simple linear addition of all stress components is too simplistic. In this paper we present a model of the air-sea surface stress that incorporates air-flow separation and its effects on the other stress components, such as a reduction of the surface viscous stress in the separated region as suggested by recent measurements. Naturally, the inclusion of these effects leads to a non-linear stress formulation. This model, which uses a variable normalized dissipation rate of breaking waves and normalized length of the separation bubble, reproduces the observed features of the drag coefficient from low to high wind speeds despite extrapolating empirical wave spectra and breaking wave statistics beyond known limits. The model shows the saturation of the drag coefficient at high wind speeds for both field and laboratory fetches, suggesting that air-flow separation over ocean waves and its accompanying effects may play a significant role in the physics of the air-sea stress, at least at high wind speeds.     

Understanding multiple thresholds of coupled social–ecological systems exposed to natural hazards as external shocks

External suffusion, as selective erosion of fine particles through the contact with a coarser layer and moving away, is an important phenomenon in dams which may lead to their failure. To study the initiation of external suffusion, caused by water level increase upstream the dam, a series of experimental investigations were conducted on laboratory-scale model, in the hydrodynamic laboratory of école polytechnique de Montreal. On the built model, clay/moraine formed the core, sand was used as a filter and gravel performed the role of the pervious layer. Several different models (in geometry and constituent materials) were built and subjected to the water level increase upstream, which resulted in changes in the hydraulic gradient. The results showed no evidence of considerable suffusion on the clay/moraine and sand interface, while the visual and quantitative data show the presence of suffusion on the sand and gravel interface. The results of the experiments show that, when focusing on the critical hydraulic gradient that initiates the movement of the clay/moraine particles, it can be concluded that despite the differences in test conditions, the critical hydraulic gradient has approximately the same value in all cases. It was also shown that increasing the length of the filter layer or applying stair-like slopes does not have great impacts on the initiation of suffusion, whereas the gravel-size distribution has a great impact on the erosion rate.     

Reinterpretation of an archaeological pebble culture from the Middle Mekong River valley,Cambodia

In 1963, E. Saurin and J.‐P. Carbonnel discovered the Sre Sbov site on an alluvial terrace of the Mekong River in central Cambodia. Saurin described a lithic typology dating to the Lower/Middle Pleistocene from this site. Although the original lithic assemblage has been lost, this typology has been used continuously as a reference by Southeast Asian prehistorians. In 2007, a Khmer–French team conducted excavations at Sre Sbov that yielded numerous pebbles and cobbles showing apparently convincing handmade removals, as Saurin had previously described. However, an in‐depth study of this assemblage, combined with a geological survey of the area, led to the conclusion that the stones were, in fact, of natural origin, and that for this reason their typology should be disregarded. Using satellite imagery and geological surveys, we explain how such a misinterpretation may have occurred and define a “buffer zone,” corresponding to the maximal extent of the proto‐Mekong River, where fluvially reworked pebbles and cobbles resembling artifacts may be recovered. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.