Reducing systematic errors by empirically correcting model errors

A methodology for the correction of systematic errors in a simplified atmospheric general‐circulation model is proposed. First, a method for estimating initial tendency model errors is developed, based on a 4‐dimensional variational assimilation of a long‐analysed dataset of observations in a simple quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic model. Then, a time variable potential vorticity source term is added as a forcing to the same model, in order to parameterize subgrid‐scale processes and unrepresented physical phenomena. This forcing term consists in a (large‐scale) flow dependent parametrization of the initial tendency model error computed by the variational assimilation. The flow dependency is given by an analogues technique which relies on the analysis dataset. Such empirical driving causes a substantial improvement of the model climatology, reducing its systematic error and improving its high frequency variability. Low‐frequency variability is also more realistic and the model shows a better reproduction of Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. A link between the large‐scale flow and the model error is found only in the Euro‐Atlantic sector, other mechanisms being probably the origin of model error in other areas of the globe.     

Synthetic tsunami mareograms for realistic oceanic models

We study how the tsunami mode is generated by a scaled double-couple seismic source, and how it propagates in realistic oceanic models. The method developed and used is the direct extension to tsunami waves propagating in multilayered oceanic media of the well-known Haskell method. The most intensive tsunamis may be expected from sources located within the crust in the deep-water parts of the ocean. The extension to laterally heterogeneous structures shows that, if the thickness of the ocean liquid layer diminishes, the maximum amplitude of the tsunami wave train increases.     

The Balance Between Capturing Phosphorus from Manure and Wastewater and the Demand for Crop Fertilizer in Italy

Phosphorus (P) is an essential nutrient required for plant growth and at the same time a costly pollutant, which can cause eutrophication of water bodies. Modern agriculture relies heavily on mineral fertilisers, which contain phosphorus derived from phosphate rock, because, without regular applications, crop yields would be limited. Since phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource, there are growing concerns regarding future phosphorus scarcity and the sustainability of modern agriculture. For many farmers, animal manure was once a means of maintaining soil fertility, but now it presents a major operational problem. This study evaluated the possibility of recycling phosphorus on a national and regional scale in Italy, using major sources of manure and wastewater. These results were successively compared with an estimate of the agricultural demand for phosphorus. Considering the quantity of phosphorus fertilizer that was applied to the soil–plant system, for the years 2001–2010, the annual phosphorus requirement of Italian crops was about 101,000 t of P. Therefore, the phosphorus source comprising animal manure and civil/industrial waste (117,500 t of P and 40,000 t of P, respectively) could potentially satisfy the average annual agronomic phosphorus demand. Regarding the geographical distribution of phosphorus supply and demand on a regional scale, areas with a large deficit of phosphorus included Calabria, Puglia and Marche. However, when only livestock waste was considered, Sicily, Umbria and Friuli could also be considered to be regions experiencing a phosphorus deficit.

     

From river to shelf,anatomy of a high‐frequency depositional sequence: The Late Pleistocene to Holocene Tiber depositional sequence

The Late Pleistocene/Holocene Tiber delta succession represents the most recent and one of the best preserved, high‐frequency/low‐rank depositional sequences developed along the Latium continental margin of the Italian peninsula. Several previous studies have established a robust data set from which it has been possible to describe the stratigraphic architecture of the entire Tiber depositional sequence from the landward to seaward sectors and over a distance of 60 km. The Tiber depositional sequence shows many characteristics found in other Late Pleistocene to Holocene deltaic and coastal successions of the Mediterranean area. The stratigraphic architecture of the Tiber depositional sequence is controlled mainly by glacioeustasy, although factors such as tectonic uplift, volcanism and subsidence, exert an influence at a local scale. The resulting depositional model allowed discussion of some important points such as: (1) the genesis of the Tiber mixed bedrock‐alluvial valley, extending from the coastal plain to the innermost portion of the shelf, recording (i) multiple episodes of incision during relative sea‐level fall, and (ii) a downstream increase of depth and width of the valley during the base‐level fall and the subsequent base‐level rise; (2) the different physical expression of the Tiber depositional sequence boundary from landward to seaward, and its diachronous and composite character; (3) the maximum depth reached by the Tiber early lowstand delta at the end of the sea‐level fall is estimated at ca 90 m below the present sea‐level and not at 120 m as suggested by previous works; (4) the backward position of the Tiber late lowstand delta relative to the deposit of early lowstand; (5) the change of the channel pattern and of the stacking pattern of fluvial deposits within the Lowstand Systems Tract, Transgressive Systems Tract and Highstand Systems Tract. All of these features indicate that the Late Pleistocene/Holocene Tiber delta succession, even if deposited in a short period of time from a geological point of view, represents the result of the close interaction among many autogenic and allogenic factors. However, global eustatic variations and sediment supply under the control of climatic changes can be considered the main factors responsible for the stratigraphic architecture of this sedimentary succession, which has been heavily modified by human activity only in the last 3000 years.     

Information infrastructure for Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing System

Australia’s Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS, imos.org.au) is research infrastructure to establish an enduring observing program for Australian oceanic waters and shelf seas. The observations cover physical, biological, and chemical variables to address themes of multi-decadal ocean change, climate variability and weather extremes, boundary currents and inter-basin flows, continental shelf processes and ecosystem responses.IMOS observations are collected by national facilities based on various platform types and operated by partner institutions around the country. In this paper we describe the infrastructure and workflows developed to manage and distribute the data to the public. We highlight the existing standards and open-source software we have adopted, and the contributions we have made. To demonstrate the value of this infrastructure we provide some illustrations of use and uptake.All IMOS data are freely and openly available to the public via the Ocean Portal (https://imos.aodn.org.au). All IMOS-developed software is open-source and accessible at https://github.com/aodn.     

The economic sustainability of artisanal fisheries: the case of the trawl ban in the Gulf of Castellammare, NW Sicily

Small-scale fisheries and the communities they support are often given the protection of designated fishing zones from which non-artisanal vessels are excluded. This paper looks at one example of this approach, the trawl ban introduced in the Gulf of Castellammare (NW Sicily), focussing on the economic sustainability of the artisanal fishery currently operating within the protected area. The consequences of lifting the trawl ban and how far this would jeopardise the sustainability of the artisanal fishery are explored via an analysis of the financial viability of trammel net vessels under alternative assumptions concerning catch rates. The paper also investigates fishermen's attitudes towards the trawl ban and their predisposition either to remain in the fishery or to quit in the event of the ban being removed.     

Anatexis and fluid regime of the deep continental crust: New clues from melt and fluid inclusions in metapelitic migmatites from Ivrea Zone (NW Italy)

We investigate the inclusions hosted in peritectic garnet from metapelitic migmatites of the Kinzigite Formation (Ivrea Zone, NW Italy) to evaluate the starting composition of the anatectic melt and fluid regime during anatexis throughout the upper amphibolite facies, transition, and granulite facies zones. Inclusions have negative crystal shapes, sizes from 2 to 10 μm and are regularly distributed in the core of the garnet. Microstructural and micro‐Raman investigations indicate the presence of two types of inclusions: crystallized silicate melt inclusions (i.e., nanogranitoids, NI), and fluid inclusions (FI). Microstructural evidence suggests that FI and NI coexist in the same cluster and are primary (i.e., were trapped simultaneously during garnet growth). FI have similar compositions in the three zones and comprise variable proportions of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂, commonly with siderite, pyrophyllite, and kaolinite, suggesting a COHN composition of the trapped fluid. The mineral assemblage in the NI contains K‐feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite, muscovite, chlorite, graphite and, rarely, calcite. Polymorphs such as kumdykolite, cristobalite, tridymite, and less commonly kokchetavite, were also found. Rehomogenized NI from the different zones show that all the melts are leucogranitic but have slightly different compositions. In samples from the upper amphibolite facies, melts are less mafic (FeO + MgO = 2.0–3.4 wt%), contain 860–1700 ppm CO₂ and reach the highest H₂O contents (6.5–10 wt%). In the transition zone melts have intermediate H₂O (4.8–8.5 wt%), CO₂ (457–1534 ppm) and maficity (FeO + MgO = 2.3–3.9 wt%). In contrast, melts at granulite facies reach highest CaO, FeO + MgO (3.2–4.7 wt%), and CO₂ (up to 2,400 ppm), with H₂O contents comparable (5.4–8.3 wt%) to the other two zones. Our results represent the first clear evidence for carbonic fluid‐present melting in the Ivrea Zone. Anatexis of metapelites occurred through muscovite and biotite breakdown melting in the presence of a COH fluid, in a situation of fluid–melt immiscibility. The fluid is assumed to have been internally derived, produced initially by devolatilization of hydrous silicates in the graphitic protolith, then as a result of oxidation of carbon by consumption of Fe³⁺‐bearing biotite during melting. Variations in the compositions of the melts are interpreted to result from higher T of melting. The H₂O contents of the melts throughout the three zones are higher than usually assumed for initial H₂O contents of anatectic melts. The CO₂ contents are highest at granulite facies, and show that carbon‐contents of crustal magmas are not negligible at high T. The activity of H₂O of the fluid dissolved in granitic melts decreases with increasing metamorphic grade. Carbonic fluid‐present melting of the deep continental crust represents, together with hydrate‐breakdown melting reactions, an important process in the origin of crustal anatectic granitoids.