Are we going to live in a post-NATO world? A critical perspective on trends,obstacles and possibilities

The main research question investigated in this paper is the following: will a post-NATO world emerge during the next decades? The relevance of such a question is a consequence of the political and economic changes that have seen the light as a result of the power shift of international relations after the end of the Cold War. In spite of this, some contradictory tendencies, such as the weakening of the European pole within the NATO block, the US-NATO enlargement and its military aggressiveness, are generating a number of significant obstacles to the emergence of a post-NATO world. We will argue that the existence of these obstacles could be interpreted as some steps toward the historical downsizing of the US-EU-NATO hegemony. A “post-NATO” world does not necessarily imply the end of NATO, but rather the end of its hegemonic military presence on the global stage. Firstly, we will put the question into context mentioning the debates around NATO’s future and underlining the path undertaken by the Alliance in the frame of the redefinition of the aims of its “strategic concepts”. In this perspective, we will underline the direct link which exists between US strategic needs and NATO’s evolution in the post-Cold war era. Secondly, we will argue that the recent process of military expansionism led by NATO is remarkably de-legitimizing its actions on the global stage. Such a process, along with the current world system shift toward the end of unipolarity, is likely to provoke dramatic consequences in terms of international insecurity and the spreading of war. Thirdly, we will briefly compare the US and Chinese foreign actions, arguing that the space of international legitimacy is radically changing. This fact represents another brick supporting the idea of the emergence of a post-NATO world system in the future of international relations.     

Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.     

Effects of nutrient availability and temperature on phytoplankton development: a case study from large lakes south of the Alps

This work investigated the combined effects of nutrient availability and temperature on phytoplankton in large and deep lakes south of the Alps (lakes Garda, Iseo, Como, Lugano and Maggiore). The more eutrophic basins (Lugano and Iseo) showed a higher presence of cyanobacteria, green algae (Chlorophyta and Charophyta) and dinoflagellates (Dinophyta). Besides these two water bodies, high biomasses of cyanobacteria were recorded also in the oligo-mesotrophic Lake Garda. The development of these algal groups during the growing season showed a strong dependence on the surface spring availability of SRP, which, in turn, was related to winter climatic oscillations, deep mixing dynamics, and trophic status. A specific analysis carried out by applying additive mixed modelling, generalized least squares and mixed modelling, allowed investigation of the direct, seasonal effects of water temperature variations and trophic status on different algal groups. The dominant cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales) showed only a partial relationship with temperature, while Nostocales and Chroococcales, which did not appear to have a close relationship with the trophic status of the lakes, were characterised by abrupt increases during the warmer months. High positive relationships with temperature were found for a few other algal groups (e.g., Chlorophyta, Charophyta and Dinophyta). Overall, the results indicated a positive relationship between the seasonal development of the more abundant and eutrophic-sensitive algal groups and the concurrent effect of trophic status and water temperature. Nevertheless, it was stressed that specific differences could be interpreted taking into account the different autoecological characteristics and susceptibilities of different species and functional groups to other stressing factors favouring losses, including, e.g., vertical sinking and grazing.     

The signature of dark energy on the local Hubble flow

Using N -body simulations of flat, dark energy-dominated cosmologies, we show that galaxies around simulated binary systems resembling the Local Group (LG) have low peculiar velocities, in good agreement with observational data. We have compared results for LG-like systems selected from large, high-resolution simulations of three cosmologies: a ΛCDM model, a ΛWDM model with a 2-keV warm dark matter candidate, and a quintessence (QCDM) model with an equation-of-state parameter   w =−0.6  . The Hubble flow is significantly colder around LGs selected in a flat, Λ-dominated cosmology than around LGs in open or critical models, showing that a dark energy component manifests itself on the scales of nearby galaxies, cooling galaxy peculiar motions. Flows in the ΛWDM and QCDM models are marginally colder than in the ΛCDM one.
The results of our simulations have been compared to existing data and to a new data set of 28 nearby galaxies with robust distance measures (Cepheids and surface brightness fluctuations). The measured line-of-sight velocity dispersion is given by  σ_H= (88 ± 20  km s⁻¹) × ( R /7 Mpc)  . The best agreement with observations is found for LGs selected in the ΛCDM cosmology in environments with  −0.1 < δρ/ρ < 0.6  on scales of 7 Mpc, in agreement with existing observational estimates on the local matter density. These results provide new, independent evidence for the presence of dark energy on scales of a few megaparsecs, corroborating the evidence gathered from observations of distant objects and the early Universe.     

Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues

Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes.     

Aliphatic hydrocarbons in metasomatized gabbroic xenoliths from Hyblean diatremes (Sicily): Genesis in a serpentinite hydrothermal system

Many tholeiite gabbro xenoliths from the Hyblean tuff-breccia deposits (Sicily, southern Italy) present mineralogical and geochemical evidence for hydrothermal alteration at different temperatures and water/rock ratios. In some cases, the primary mineral assemblage has been entirely replaced by Na-rich alkali feldspar, chlorite/smectite interlayers, zeolites, aegirine–augite, titanite, zircon etc. Hence the chemical composition of such metasomatic rocks displays larger amounts of volatiles, alkalis, Zr, Hf, U, Th and lower Ca, Mg, Fe with respect to the original gabbro. Five hydrothermally altered gabbroic xenoliths were selected for thermal decrepitation and bulk gas analyses by quadrupole mass spectrometry. All the samples analyzed display the same Electron Impact-Direct Pyrolysis Mass spectra (EI-DPMS). These show a series of peaks differing by 14 mass units due to loss of methylene groups (–CH₂), by a fragmentation process typical of saturated aliphatic and aliphatic–aromatic hydrocarbons. In addition, Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectra of the samples present several bands typical of vibration frequencies of aliphatic hydrocarbons. The high-molecular-weight hydrocarbons observed probably originated from Fischer–Tropsch-type (FT-t) synthesis in the high temperature section of a serpentinite-hosted hydrothermal system. This suggestion may lend support to the recent hypothesis regarding the original oceanic nature of the Hyblean lithospheric basement.     

Estimation of the mass density contrasts and the 3D geometrical shape of the source bodies in the Yilgarn area, Eastern Goldfields, Western Australia

We invert 2D surface gravity data constrained both by geological and seismic information. We use a number of pre-processing tools in order to reduce the general multi-body inversion into several single-body inversions, whereby we can reduce the overall complexity of the inversion task. This is done with as few assumptions as possible. Furthermore, for a single-body inversion we uncouple the determination of the shape of the causative sources from the determination of their mass density contrast to the surroundings. The inversion for the geometrical shape of the source body is done in steps. Firstly, a rough 3D shape of the source is modelled—a model consisting of the vertical mass columns of equal height. The horizontal extension is implied by the surface gravity signal. Subsequently, the shape of each source body is modified to obtain a better fit to the surface gravity data. In each modification step, the overall change of the shape of the source body is followed by an update of the mass density contrast to the surroundings. The technique was applied to a set of gravity data from the Eastern Goldfield area in Western Australia. The area has been widely studied in the past. In 1999, two seismic profiles that cross-sect the area were measured. Furthermore, an extensive geological modelling for the area has been conducted. The practical goal of this work was to verify the geological interpretation using the potential field data (mainly the gravity data although magnetic data were also available) and only weakly constrained by the seismic information. The result was the reconstruction of the ‘rough’ 3D geometry of the source bodies and the estimation of a constant mass density contrast to the surroundings. A possible extension of this technique for detailed studies of the geological model is briefly discussed.     

Geochemical evidence of the renewal of volcanic activity inferred from CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> soil and SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> plume fluxes: the 2007 Stromboli eruption (Italy)

On 27 February 2007, a new eruption occurred on Stromboli which lasted until 2 April. It was characterized by effusive activity on the Sciara del Fuoco and by a paroxysmal event (15 March). This crisis represented an opportunity for us to refine the model that had been developed previously (2002–2003 eruption) and to improve our understanding of the relationship between the magmatic dynamics of the volcano and the geochemical variations in the fluids. In particular, the evaluation of the dynamic equilibrium between the volatiles (CO₂ and SO₂) released from the magma and the corresponding fluids discharged from the summit area allowed us to evaluate the level of criticality of the volcanic activity. One of the major accomplishments of this study is a 4-year database of summit soil CO₂ flux on the basis of which we define the thresholds (low–medium–high) for this parameter that are empirically based on the natural volcanological evolution of Stromboli. The SO₂ fluxes of the degassing plume and the CO₂ fluxes emitted from the soil at Pizzo Sopra la Fossa are also presented. It is noteworthy that geochemical signals of volcanic unrest have been clearly identified before, during and after the effusive activity. These signals were found almost simultaneously in the degassing plume (SO₂ flux) and in soil degassing (CO₂ flux) at the summit, although the two degassing processes are shown to be clearly different. The interpretation of the results will be useful for future volcanic surveillance at Stromboli.     

Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.