Test of the EEPAS Forecasting Model on the Japan Earthquake Catalogue

The EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) model is a method of forecasting earthquakes based on the notion that the precursory scale increase () phenomenon occurs at all scales in the seismogenic process. The rate density of future earthquake occurrence is computed directly from past earthquakes in the catalogue. The EEPAS model has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue and successfully tested on the California catalogue.Here we describe a further test of the EEPAS model in the Japan region spanning 1965–2001, initially on earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding the threshold value 6.75. A baseline model and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value were fitted to the JMA catalogue over the learning period 1926–1964. The performance of EEPAS, with the key parameters unchanged from the New Zealand values, was compared with that of the baseline model over the testing period, using a likelihood ratio criterion. The EEPAS model proved superior. A sensitivity analysis shows that this result is not sensitive to the choice of the learning period or b-value, but that the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model diminishes as the magnitude threshold is lowered. When key model parameters are optimised for the Japan catalogue, the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model is consistent for all magnitudes above 6.25, although less than in the New Zealand and California regions.These results add strength to the proposition that the EEPAS model is effective at a variety of scales and in a variety of seismically active regions.     

内蒙古白云鄂博地区基底岩石锆石年代学及对构造背景的指示

白云鄂博地区的克拉通基底岩石主要由糜棱岩化花岗片麻岩(2588±15Ma),正长岩、花岗闪长岩(2018±15Ma)和黑云母花岗片麻岩、含石榴石蓝晶石花岗片麻岩(～1890Ma)等组成,白云鄂博超大型稀土矿床就位于华北克拉通太古代基底之上。太古代克拉通基底在早元古代中晚期(2.0Ga)又经历了一次强烈的碰撞造山运动,造成了闪长质与花岗质岩浆侵位,以及1.9Ga片麻岩相变质事件。     

准噶尔盆地新生代构造应力对石炭纪火山岩构造裂缝发育的控制

构造裂缝的发育对改善储层的储渗条件有着重要的作用,特别是火山岩这种非传统储层,构造裂缝的发育是其成为有效储层的必要条件。本文主要借助构造应力场有限元数值模拟这一成熟的方法对准噶尔盆地石炭纪火山岩构造裂缝的发育状况进行预测。其两个主要的步骤是首先对区域构造应力场进行模拟计算,然后结合岩石的强度指标判断构造裂缝的发育状况。通过对准噶尔盆地地质背景和构造演化的分析,明确了新生代构造应力场的的决定性作用和石炭纪火山岩的分布区域(划分出六个区域),建立了数值模拟的计算模型、确定了边界条件与载荷。通过二维有限元数值模拟(应用Ansys软件)得到了新生代盆地应力场的分布特征和应力值。结合岩石强度指标,对火山岩构造裂缝(张裂缝和剪裂缝)的发育进行了预测并圈出相应的区域,主要为盆地西北缘、中央坳陷中部、滴西1东部,彩参2周缘、大井-将军庙等地区,对石炭纪火山岩的油气勘探战略选区, 优化勘探部署具有重要指导意义。     

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin,West Africa

The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.     

胶东石城金矿床成矿流体特征及成矿作用

石城金矿位于胶东牟平-乳山成矿带南端,为多金属硫化物型金矿床。其成矿流体阶段可分为3个,相应的流体包裹体特征为:(1)成矿早期(第1阶段)富CO2包裹体;(2)主成矿期(第2阶段)H2O包裹体和含CO2包裹体;(3)成矿后期(第3阶段)H2O包裹体。第1阶段均一温度为256～360℃,盐度3.71%～6.88%NaCl,第2阶段均一温度为168～270℃,盐度4.49%～10.24%NaCl,第3阶段均一温度为123～178℃,盐度0.35%～7.59%NaCl。其中主成矿期为中低温、低盐度的CO2-H2O-NaCl流体体系。H、O同位素表明石城金矿成矿流体为岩浆水与大气水形成的混合热液,C、O同位素则反映了地幔富CO2流体参与了成矿作用,而S同位素进一步揭示了金矿的成矿物质来源为壳幔相互作用的结果。石城金矿的出现表明研究区至少存在两期成矿事件,早期成矿时代约120Ma,主要为石英+黄铁矿型矿石,晚期成矿时代小于111Ma,主要为多金属硫化物型矿石,以石城金矿为代表。     

白云鄂博地区碳酸岩脉侵位序列与稀土元素富集机制

白云鄂博地区发育大量的火成碳酸岩脉。按照矿物组成,碳酸岩脉可分为白云石型、白云石-方解石共存型和方解石型。野外穿插关系表明,白云石型碳酸岩脉形成得早,而方解石型碳酸岩脉形成得晚。白云鄂博地区的碳酸岩浆存在由白云石型到共存型再到方解石型的先后结晶顺序和演化趋势。碳酸岩脉的主量、稀土和微量元素组成特征表明,随着碳酸岩脉中方解石矿物组分的增加,轻稀土元素的含量呈明显富集趋势,而长期的结晶分异作用正是稀土元素,尤其是轻稀土元素在晚期岩浆中强烈富集的内在机制。