Dam break threshold value and risk probability assessment for an earth dam

In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability. In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors, are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally, the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam safety management.     

鄂尔多斯盆地陕北斜坡延长区块储层流体识别

延长油田区块位于鄂尔多斯盆地陕北斜坡东部延安单斜的中间部位,为研究天然气储层及储层中高含气分布区,2008年在延长油田区块内完成三维地震勘探344km2。本文对三维地震资料应用吸收系数、频谱分解、振幅衰减等地震属性进行流体识别试验。试验结果表明振幅衰减对含气层段异常响应相对敏感,吸收系数对高含气层段有一定反映。利用天然气储层各层段振幅衰减极大值,参考吸收系数剖面的高值层段,分析预测了三维区块含气概率高的平面分布区,2009年在预测的含气概率高分布区进行了探井验证,取得了比较理想的效果。     

An application of a new method in permafrost environment assessment of Muli mining area in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

The permafrost environment in the Muli mining area, an opencast mining site in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, is now undergoing significant degradation because of the ongoing mining activities. The permafrost environment in this mining site had already been evaluated by previous study, in which analytic hierarchy process was applied. Although this method can roughly characterize the permafrost environment of this mining site, it has limitations by being easily affected by man-made factors. In view of this limitation, this study attempts to employ a new method, the catastrophe progression method, to estimate the current stage of the permafrost environment in this mining area. The results show that, by catastrophe progression method, currently the calculated indexes of the permafrost freezing–thawing disintegration, permafrost thermal stability, permafrost ecological fragility, and the permafrost environment are 0.43 (general situation), 0.77 (general situation), 0.71 (bad situation) and 0.83 (general situation), respectively. These values imply that the permafrost environment has been damaged by anthropologic activities to a certain degree and potentially may be further degenerated. However, at this degree, a new equilibrium stage of permafrost environment could be achieved if the current state of environmental degradation is stabilized and treatments are constructed against further damages.     

深埋隧洞极强岩爆段隧道掘进机半导洞掘进岩爆风险研究

深埋隧洞TBM（隧道掘进机）全断面掘进时,在局部超高应力集中的完整硬脆性岩体洞段将直面极强岩爆的风险,设备和人员的安全将遭受极大的威胁。在锦屏II水电站3#引水隧洞极强岩爆段实施了“先半导洞+TBM联合掘进”实验,结合微震实时监测信息对TBM半导洞掘进的岩爆风险开展了研究。监测结果表明,（1）TBM半导洞掘进期间,日平均微震事件数、日平均辐射微震能、微震大事件数及实际岩爆发生次数和强度均远远低于TBM全断面掘进;（2）能量指数对数值和累积视体积的时域演化表明,TBM半导洞掘进强烈岩爆发生的风险远低于TBM全断面掘进,现场实际开挖也证明了这一点;（3）半导洞洞段微震事件的空间集结程度、总数、震级大小与能量辐射均远小于全断面洞段。因此,TBM半导洞掘进的岩爆风险远远低于TBM全断面掘进,在具有施工条件的情况下采用先半导洞预处理,然后TBM半断面掘进极强岩爆段,以期控制岩爆风险的方案是可行的。     

遥感技术在煤炭资源开发状况监督管理中的应用研究

利用高分辨率遥感图象可以快速查明煤炭资源开发状况以及煤炭资源开发的合法性（界内开采、界外开采、越界开采）等,对煤矿安全生产及维护矿业秩序具有重要意义。以我国中部某煤炭开采密集区为试验区,选择不同分辨率的遥感数据,从矿山铺助设施、道路、矿堆、矸石的特征出发,进行矿山开采状况遥感解译;以地理信息系统技术（GIS）为支撑实现采矿权数据、规划数据图层与遥感专题数据的叠加分析和相关分析,判断非法与越界矿山,评价矿产资源开发与保护规划执行情况。     

个旧矿区遥感异常信息解译及找矿远景分析

文章以TM多光谱遥感数据为基本信息源,从实际地质情况出发,采用计算机识别和人工判读相结合,对区内的线形、环形构造进行了解译.应用比值 主成分分析的方法对区内热液弱蚀变信息进行了提取.在此基础上,综合利用已知矿床的分布以及遥感构造信息、遥感蚀变晕信息,结合已有的物化探资料,分析出4个找矿远景区.     

250kaB.P.以来西太平洋暖池中心区——Ontong Java海台古生产力演化

多年平均表层水温超过28℃的"西太平洋暖池",是全球海平面高度的加热中心和大气三大环流的辐散中心。为评价西太平洋暖池中心区域海洋生物泵的演化特征、规律与机制,本文以位于热带西太平洋暖池核心区——Ontong Java海台的WP7柱状样为材料,通过提取浮游有孔虫δ13C组成、底栖有孔虫群落和钙质超微化石下透光带属种Florisphaera profunda相对百分含量变化等指标,反演该区250kaB.P.以来的古生产力的演化历史。研究结果表明,250kaB.P.以来西太平洋暖池中心区的古生产力演化与地球轨道变化控制的冰期-间冰期旋回以及岁差控制的太阳辐照率密切相关。在冰期-间冰期尺度上,西太平洋暖池中心区距今250ka以来的生产力变化间冰期明显低于冰期,而且在间冰期阶段生产力相对稳定,冰期波动幅度较大。在冰期或间冰期背景下显著的岁差周期是该区古生产力演化的又一重要特征。而且在岁差波段生物生产力的变化可能领先极地冰体积变化2～4ka左右。热带东西太平洋的古生产力演化在冰期-间冰期变化和岁差尺度上存在ENSO式的变动机制,而且二者互相调谐,产生了似30ka和19ka周期,并出现了"半30ka周期"和半岁差周期。此外,WP7孔Neogloboqudrina dutertrei的δ13C显示在MIS 1/2,MIS 3/4和MIS 5e/6的冰期向间冰期的过渡期的冰消期阶段存在变轻事件,可能与数千年尺度的大洋环流演化有关。     

贵州糯东井田水文地质条件分析

通过对井田内泉和暗河流量的调查研究,认为永宁镇组一、三段碳酸盐岩裂隙溶洞水为井田的主要含水层,含水层主要接受大气降水及河流的渗透补给;煤层上覆地层飞仙关组为相对隔水层,厚度大于500m,下覆无强含水层,其地下水对煤层的开采影响不大,井田水文地质条件较简单。采用比拟法对井田的涌水量进行了预算,推算该矿井开采设计涌水量为13 238m^3/d。     

Occurrence and evolution of the Xiaotangshan hot spring in Beijing, China

Thermal groundwater occurs in bedrock aquifers consisting of the dolomite of the Wumishan Group of the Jixianin System and the Cambrian carbonate in the Xiaotangshan geothermal field near the northern margin of the North China Plain, China. The hot water in the geothermal field of basin-type discharges partly in the form of the Xiaotangshan hot spring under natural conditions. The hot water has TDS of less than 600 mg/L and is of Na·Ca-HCO₃ type. The geothermal water receives recharge from precipitation in the mountain area with elevation of about 500 m above sea level to the north of the spring. Thermal groundwater flows slowly south and southeast through a deep circulation with a residence time of 224 years estimated with the Ra–Rn method. The Xiaotangshan hot spring dried up in the middle of the 1980s owing to the increasing withdrawal of the hot water in the geothermal field in the past decades. The water level of the geothermal system still falls continually at an annual average rate of about 2 m, although water temperature changes very little, indicating that the recharge of such a geothermal system of basin-type is limited. Over-exploitation has a dramatic impact on the geothermal system, and reduction in exploitation and reinjection are required for the sustainable usage of the hot water.     

Benthic nutrient fluxes in the intertidal flat within the Changjiang （Yangtze River） Estuary

In an annual cycle from March 2005 to February 2006, benthic nutrient fluxes were measured monthly in the Dongtan intertidal flat within the Changjiang （Yangtze River） Estuary. Except for NH4^＋, there always showed high fluxes from overlying water into sediment for other four nutrients. Sediments in the high and middle marshes, covered with halophyte and consisting of macrofauna, demonstrated more capabilities of assimilating nutrients from overlying water than the low marsh. Sampling seasons and nutrient concentrations in the overlying water could both exert significant effects on these fluxes. Additionally, according to the model provided by previous study, denitrification rates, that utilizing NO3- transported from overlying water （Dw） in Dongtan sediments, were estimated to be from -16 to 193 μmol·h^-1·m^-2 with an average value of 63 μmol·h^-1·m^-2 （n=18）. These estimated values are still underestimates of the in-situ rates owing to the lack of consideration of DN, i.e., denitrification supported by the local NO3^- production via nitrification.