Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Patterns of Nd and Sr isotopic ratios produced by magmatic and post-magmatic processes in the Shiant Isles Main Sill, Scotland

The Shiant Isles Main Sill of the British Tertiary Igneous Province is a classic example of a differentiated, alkaline basic sill. Four separate intrusions, each emplaced internally in rapid succession, form a 165-m-thick sill hosted by Lower Jurassic sedimentary rocks. Extensive Nd and Sr isotopic studies were conducted on samples from a vertical section through the sill where the relationships of samples to one another are well defined. The results illuminate patterns of modification of isotopic ratios and clarify the petrogenesis (magma sources, crustal contamination), magmatic processes (bulk mixing, interstitial liquid mixing), and post-magmatic alteration (hydrothermal effects on Sr and Nd). Overall, the whole-rock initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios range from ∼0.7037 to 0.7061 while initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios vary from ∼0.51243 to 0.51286 (ɛ_Nd∼−0.7 to +5.7) – values that contrast markedly with those of the country rock. Acid leaching (HCl) of the whole-rock samples that removes analcime indicates that most of the scatter in the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr is caused by the ubiquitous sub-solidus, aqueous alteration during which more-radiogenic Sr was introduced into the sill, especially along the margins, and also reveals magmatic isotopic ratios. In contrast, Nd was immobile during fluid interaction so that the sill ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios were not affected, even <1 m from the country-rock contact. Using leached rock values, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios are inversely correlated from magmatic processes. Magmas with two distinct isotopic compositions were involved: a more primitive one with ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ∼0.51285 and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ∼0.7035 that produced the first two intrusions and a more evolved one (with 0.51252 and 0.7048) that produced the third intrusion. Mixing of the two magmas was very limited, restricted to near contacts between units, and apparently occurred by interstitial melt migration. The more evolved crinanitic magma was probably produced from a batch of the more primitive picritic melt by a small degree of crustal contamination and crystal fractionation during a short crustal residence prior to ascent and emplacement. Received: 20 December 1999 / Accepted: 5 May 2000     

The Great Barrier Reef: a 700 000 year diagenetic history

A deep borehole through Ribbon Reef 5 in the Great Barrier Reef off north‐eastern Australia has identified a variety of cements, including epitaxial, radial prismatic and spherular aragonite, together with blocky, prismatic and fibrous calcite. These cements are discontinuously arranged within the sequence that consists predominantly of grainstones but locally includes clotted muddy and filamentous textures that may be of microbial origin. Calcite cements vary in morphology with groups of crystals that include acute scalenohedral, rhombohedral and flattened concordant terminations; these show varying densities of inclusions that locally define growth zones and in some terminations divide in the manner of ‘split crystals’ to form fibrous fringes. Morphological changes in calcite are inferred to reflect changes in water chemistry and crystal growth rates at the time of growth, allied to their relationship to the palaeo‐water table, and linked in turn to changes in sea‐level. Neomorphism and dissolution are widespread and variations in the severity of both imply response to the degree of undersaturation of pore waters that at times were probably balanced within very narrow limits. A total of 10 depositional units are identified. Those units at the base of the borehole reflect deposition and diagenesis within a marine environment. The influence of meteoric waters, indicated by stable isotopes, is first apparent at the top of Unit 1 and in Unit 2 (184 to 155 m below sea floor). Petrographic evidence of vadose conditions appears at the tops of Unit 3 (131 to 99 m below sea floor). Units 4 to 8, all deposited under marine conditions, provide isotopic evidence of meteoric or mixing‐zone waters and petrographic indicators of vadose conditions, typically at the top of the units. Evidence indicates that in Unit 5 the water table was mobile and Units 6a, 6b, 7 and 8, all characterized by ultraviolet fluorescent cements, are capped by sub‐aerial erosion surfaces. Unit 9 (the Holocene) reflects the recent re‐establishment of marine conditions. The extent of alteration of the entire sequence reflects the substantial and pervasive influence of meteoric waters. This effect is interpreted as a result of a greater rainfall and river flow from the mainland during early and late stages of interstadial periods. The study reflects progress in the ability to recognize the diagenetic signal generated by sea‐level change. However, whereas the isotopic results reflect the changing relationships between vadose and phreatic zones in groundwater systems beneath successive emergent surfaces, their correspondence with petrographic features is expressed only weakly and commonly lacks the systematic sequential overprinting implied by the distribution of cathodoluminescent zones of cements in many ancient limestones.     

Regional and temporal changes in bivalve diversity off the south coast of Portugal

From 2000 to 2006, a total of 75 bivalve species were identified, varying from 29 (spring 2001) to 54 species (spring 2005) per year. Seasonal tendencies in diversity varied according the year, thus the interpretation of long-term and regional scales is essential before drawing any conclusions in other studies. Richness and diversity consistently decreased with depth and increased with sediment grain size (from low in very coarse sand to high in coarse silt). Diversity decreased progressively from 3 to 16 m depth, thus the harsher shallower environments (due to waves and tidal air exposure) showed greater diversity than the most stable areas. Communities in finer sediments were more diverse than those in coarser sand. Evenness showed patterns opposite to diversity, overall.Diversity and evenness maps (produced with multivariate universal kriging), showed that most geographic areas with greater diversity were farer from river outflows and wastewater treatment plants. Two types of geographic pattern were observed: areas with persistently greater bivalve diversity through time and areas that changed locally from year to year. This spatial analysis can be used to establish priority conservation areas for management purposes, and to analyse the persistency of regional diversity patterns. The area with most habitat heterogeneity (Sotavento) corresponded to greatest diversity.There was a positive relationship between Spisula solida and Chamelea gallina landings and bivalve diversity 2 years and 1 year later, respectively. Possibly, local fisheries, by selectively withdrawing the commercial numerically dominant species from the ecosystem, increased diversity 1 to 2 years later, as the ecological niches of the dominants are quickly filled by several other species thereby creating a more even community. On regional scales, no significant impact was found on long-term bivalve diversity in local fisheries,     

Implications from Galileo Observations on the Interior Structure and Chemistry of the Galilean Satellites

Data from the recent gravity measurements by the Galileo mission are used to construct wide ranges of interior structure and composition models for the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. These models show that mantle densities of Io and Europa are consistent with an olivine-dominated mineralogy with the ratios of Mg to Fe components depending on mantle temperature for Io and on ice shell thickness for Europa. The mantle density and composition depend relatively little on core composition. The size of the core is largely determined by the core's composition with core radius increasing with the concentration of a light component such as sulfur. For Io, the range of possible core sizes is between 38 and 53% of the satellite's radius. For Europa, there is also a substantial effect of the thickness of the ice layer which is varied between 120 and 170 km on the core size. Core sizes are between 10 and 45% of Europa's radius. The core size of Ganymede ranges between one-quarter and one-third of the surface radius depending on its sulfur content and the thickness of the ice shell. A subset of the Ganymede models is consistent with an olivine-dominated mantle mineralogy. The thickness of the silicate mantle above the core varies between 900 and 1100 km. The outermost ice shell is about 900 km in thickness and is further subdivided by pressure-induced phase transitions into ice I, ice III, ice V, and ice VI layers. Callisto should be differentiated, albeit incompletely. It is proposed that this satellite was never molten at a large scale but differentiated through the convective gradual unmixing of the ice and the metal/rock component. Bulk iron-to-silicon ratios Fe/Si calculated for the inner pair of satellites, Io and Europa, are less than the CI carbonaceous chondrite value of 1.7±0.1, whereas ratios for the outer pair, Ganymede and Callisto, cover a broad range above the chondritic value. Although the ratios are uncertain, in particular for Ganymede and Callisto, the values are sufficiently distinct to suggest a difference in composition between these two pairs of satellites. This may indicate a difference in iron-silicon fractionation during the formation of both classes of satellites in the protojovian nebula.     

Some General Properties of Transverse Motions of the Geostrophic Front

Within the framework of the reduced-gravity model of the ocean taking into account the effect of friction in the Rayleigh form, we study the two-dimensional problem of nonlinear motions of a subsurface front of finite width. We consider the conservation laws and the character of motion of the center-of-mass of the cross section of the front and their variations caused by the losses of energy. For fields with special structure, the problem is reduced to the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the initially geostrophic frontal current decays with time according to a power law. The deviations of the initial state of the front from the state of geostrophic balance result in the generation of superinertial oscillations of the hydrodynamic fields.     

Tensor time domain electromagnetic resistivity measurements at Ngatamariki geothermal field, New Zealand

Experimental measurements in the Ngatamariki geothermal field, North Island, New Zealand were made to test the applicability of the time domain electromagnetic method for detailed investigation of the resistivity structure within a geothermal field. Low-frequency square wave signals were transmitted through three grounded bipole current sources sited about 8 km from the measurement lines. Despite high levels of electrical noise, transient electric field vectors could be determined reliably for times between 0.02 and 3.3 s after each step in the source current. Instantaneous apparent resistivity tensors were then calculated. Apparent resistivity pseudosections along the two measurement lines show smooth variations of resistivity from site to site. Over most of the field the images consistently show a three-layer resistivity structure with a conductive middle layer (3–10 Ωm) representing the conductive upper part of the thermal reservoir. A deep-seated region of low resistivity in the northwest of the field may indicate a conductive structure at about 1 km associated with a deeper diorite intrusion. Measurements sited closer than about 100 m to drillholes appear to have been disturbed by metallic casing in the holes. A change in resistivity structure in the east of the field may indicate a major geological or hydrothermal boundary.     

地下水气体组分的潮汐变化

我们观察了日本中部Omaezaki地区地下水气体组分时间序列数据的周期性变化,Omaezaki是日本地震预报目录中即将到来的Tokai地震前兆信号观察的重要地区.我们已经开始在一口100 m深的井中对地下水中气体组分进行持续监测.