The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests for transient heads in heterogeneous aquifers

Cross-borehole flowmeter tests have been proposed as an efficient method to investigate preferential flowpaths in heterogeneous aquifers, which is a major task in the characterization of fractured aquifers. Cross-borehole flowmeter tests are based on the idea that changing the pumping conditions in a given aquifer will modify the hydraulic head distribution in large-scale flowpaths, producing measurable changes in the vertical flow profiles in observation boreholes. However, inversion of flow measurements to derive flowpath geometry and connectivity and to characterize their hydraulic properties is still a subject of research. In this study, we propose a framework for cross-borehole flowmeter test interpretation that is based on a two-scale conceptual model: discrete fractures at the borehole scale and zones of interconnected fractures at the aquifer scale. We propose that the two problems may be solved independently. The first inverse problem consists of estimating the hydraulic head variations that drive the transient borehole flow observed in the cross-borehole flowmeter experiments. The second inverse problem is related to estimating the geometry and hydraulic properties of large-scale flowpaths in the region between pumping and observation wells that are compatible with the head variations deduced from the first problem. To solve the borehole-scale problem, we treat the transient flow data as a series of quasi-steady flow conditions and solve for the hydraulic head changes in individual fractures required to produce these data. The consistency of the method is verified using field experiments performed in a fractured-rock aquifer.     

Trace metals in estuarine sediments from the southwestern Spanish coast

The impact of river-transported metal pollution and industrial wastes on the metal distribution (Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb) in estuarine sediments was studied in the southwestern Spanish estuaries. Intertidal and subtidal surface sediments of the Tinto-Odiel Estuary are very highly polluted by heavy metals, with geoaccumulation indices up to 4 in the three sedimentary environments studied (channel, channel border and salt marsh). The single exception is the Punta Umbria channel, very protected from the point sources by salt marsh deposits and hydraulic processes. In the remaining two estuaries, pollution (Pb, Cu) was only significant near the harbour situated in the Piedras river mouth, whereas very low values were found in the Guadiana Estuary. In these last rivers, the enrichment factor increases from the channel to the salt marsh sediments.     

西澳大利亚较老的前寒武纪地质年代学

在西澳大利亚,太古宙这个名词一般应用在早于2400Ma的岩层,这与最近由前寒武地层分会提出的2500Ma界线是有一定偏差的(James,《前寒武纪研究》,7,193—204页:1978)。无论应用那个标准,西澳大利亚地盾的二个最老部分—皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)和伊尔冈地块—在太古宙期间就已清楚确立。上述两个地块均以典型的绿岩—花岗岩类为主所组成,其中许多花岗岩类深成岩由含高比例火山岩同时形成的绿岩带所包     

An Experi mental Study on Wave-Induced Dynamic Stresses in Seabed

1 .IntroductionEvery year ,Taiwanis subjectedtotwo or three typhoonintrusions in average which always causedisasters . Most of the disasters which occur around the coastal zone are due to seabed instability andcoastal structure destruction caused bytyphoo…     

地震复发周期性与地震灾害风险评估:一项在意大利的对比分析研究

开展严格而客观的地震灾害风险评估与真实地震活动对比测试,是进行任何负责任的地震灾害风险评估的必要前提。针对意大利境内实际发生的地震活动,将经典概率性方法(PSHA)得到的意大利抗震标准的参考灾害图与基于新的确定性方法(NDSHA)获取的可供参考的地震动图进行了交叉对比和测试。通过对大量可能地震的真实地面运动的模拟,结果表明,NDSHA方法可以给出可靠的设计地震的合理定义。NDSHA的灵活性可用于解释地震复发周期性,并可用于产出特定复发周期的地面运动图,以便与PSHA方法所获取的地面运动图进行直接对比分析。     

岩浆型磷灰石结构四面体替换特征的标型意义

根据文献中列了的５６个产于碳酸岩－碱性岩磷灰石的成分数据，讨论了这些岩浆型磷灰石结构四面体替换特征的标型意义，并定义出四面体替换指数，（ＴＳＩ＝（Ｓｉ＋ＳＣ）／Ｐ，单位晶胞原子数百分比），以区别侵入相碳酸岩磷灰石，喷发相碳酸岩磷灰石和碱性岩磷灰石：ＩＡＰ的ＴＳＩ为０－６．９，平均３．６２，仅少量Ｃ进入Ｔ位置；     

Distribution and mode of occurrences of radionuclides in phosphogypsum from the Aqaba and Eshidiya fertilizer plants, Jordan

Phosphogypsum is a waste by-product of the phosphate fertilizer industry that has relatively high concentrations of some U decay-series radionuclides such as ^226Ra and ^210Pb. The distribution and environmental mobility of radionuclides in phosphogypsum are an important concern because this gypsum by-product is used for wallboard, in agriculture and as a soil amendment. This study determined the distribution of ^226Ra, ^210Pb, within phosphogypsum stacks of varying age and among three size fractions （coarse： 〈0.212 mm; medium： 0.212-0.053 mm; fine： 〈0.053 mm）, in phosphogypsum derived from Aqaba and Eshidiya fertilizer plants. The results indicated that ^226Ra and ^210Pb were generally uniformly distributed in phosphogypsum stacks and showed no significant difference in the concentration of these elements with the age of stack. In the Aqaba phosphogypsum ^226Ra was slightly 10% enriched in the coarse fraction, while ^210Pb was 10% enriched in the free size fraction. In the Eshidiya phosphogypsum ^226Ra and ^210Pb contents were both relatively enriched （10%） in the fine size fraction.     

原始地核:离子探针为西格陵兰和恩德比地(南极洲)太古宙地区大约4000Ma地壳物质提供的证据

对古老岩区的典型花岗片麻岩中提取单—锆石颗粒内一些直径为15μm的点,用离子探针测量了~(207)pb/~(206)pb的比值表明,这些地方保存一个~(207)pb/~(206)pb比值范围。在含有较高铀含量的锆石内一般可测得~(207)pb/~(206)pb的最低比值,计算的~(207)pb/~(206)pb年龄,一般与反映它们形成后各岩层经受的比较主要地质事件可以对比。似乎可能的是,在年轻事件期间,由于遭受锆石粒高铀区放射性的破坏,使这些地带的放射性铅损失了。在含     

华东地区态矢量的研究

态矢量来源于统计物理学,是对连续场进行粗粒化描述的方法。尹祥础等把该方法移植到地震学中用以定量刻画地震活动性的演化,取得较好的结果。作者对华东地区1970年以来发生5级以上12次地震进行了分析,总结震前态矢量的变化情况,发现震前态矢量均有显著变化,为本地区地震趋势预测提供一定的参考价值。