基于ArcGIS Engine的地震风险预报与评估系统的设计与实现

提出利用ArcGIS Engine技术结合地震相关分析理论进行地震风险预报与评估系统设计,阐述设计原理及优势,并编程实现。系统综合集成地震分析、空间分析、重力分析及统计检验等功能,能有效提高地震风险预测评估一体化程度及震前灾害预警效率,并为地震灾害预警研究提供参考。     

Benthic recovery after fish farming cessation: a "beyond-BACI" approach

The development of a benthic environment after fish-farming cessation was examined. To ascertain whether recovery occurred, several abiotic (granulometry, acid-volatile sulfides, total phosphorus and redox potential) and biotic (polychaete abundance) variables were monitored using a "beyond-BACI" approach. Before the cessation of farming, the geochemical conditions and polychaete assemblages differed among the impacted and control sites. After cessation, an improvement of the geochemical conditions was achieved. A significant tendency toward a recovery of the polychaete assemblage in the impacted area was observed, but significant differences still remained compared with the control sites. The acid-volatile sulfide level was responsible for these differences. The abundance of polychaete families associated with organically enriched sediments diminished at the impacted site after cessation, whereas the abundance of some sensitive and omnivorous families increased. The "beyond-BACI" approach provided a wider framework than other approaches, enabling us to differentiate the natural variability from those changes induced by the fish farm and farming cessation.     

Man-induced hydrological changes, metazooplankton communities and invasive species in the Berre Lagoon (Mediterranean Sea, France)

The Berre Lagoon has been under strong anthropogenic pressure since the early 1950s. The opening of the hydroelectric EDF power plant in 1966 led to large salinity drops. The zooplankton community was mainly composed of two common brackish species: Acartia tonsa and Brachionus plicatilis. Since 2006, European litigation has strongly constrained the input of freshwater, maintaining the salinity above 15. A study was performed between 2008 and 2010 to evaluate how these modifications have impacted the zooplankton community. Our results show that the community is more diverse and contains several coastal marine species (i.e., Centropages typicus, Paracalanus parvus and Acartia clausi). A. tonsa is still present but is less abundant, whereas B. plicatilis has completely disappeared. Strong predatory marine species, such as chaetognaths, the large conspicuous autochtonous jellyfish Aurelia aurita and the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, are now very common as either seasonal or permanent features of the lagoon.     

Tidal flushing and wind driven circulation of Ahe atoll lagoon (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) from in situ observations and numerical modelling

Hydrodynamic functioning and water circulation of the semi-closed deep lagoon of Ahe atoll (Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia) were investigated using 1year of field data and a 3D hydrodynamical model. Tidal amplitude averaged less than 30cm, but tide generated very strong currents (2ms(-1)) in the pass, creating a jet-like circulation that partitioned the lagoon into three residual circulation cells. The pass entirely flushed excess water brought by waves-induced radiation stress. Circulation patterns were computed for climatological meteorological conditions and summarized with stream function and flushing time. Lagoon hydrodynamics and general overturning circulation was driven by wind. Renewal time was 250days, whereas the e-flushing time yielded a lagoon-wide 80-days average. Tide-driven flush through the pass and wind-driven overturning circulation designate Ahe as a wind-driven, tidally and weakly wave-flushed deep lagoon. The 3D model allows studying pearl oyster larvae dispersal in both realistic and climatological conditions for aquaculture applications.     

A conceptual evolutionary aseismic decision support framework for hospitals

In this paper, aconceptual evolutionary framework for aseismic decision support for hospitalsthat attempts to integrate a range of engineering and sociotechnical models is presented. Genetic algorithms are applied to find the optimal decision sets. A case study is completed to demonstrate how the frameworkmay applytoa specific hospital.The simulations show that the proposed evolutionary decision support framework is able to discover robust policy sets in either uncertain or fixed environments. The framework also qualitatively identifies some of the characteristicbehavior of the critical care organization. Thus, by utilizing the proposedframework, the decision makers are able to make more informed decisions, especially toenhance the seismic safety of the hospitals.     

Ecosystem service provision: an operational way for marine biodiversity conservation and management

Since no extensive conceptual framework has been developed on the issues of ecosystem service (ES) and service provider (SP) in the marine environment, we have made an attempt to apply these to the conservation and management of marine biodiversity. Within this context, an accurate individuation of SPs, namely the biological component of a given ecosystem that supports human activities is fundamental. SPs are the agents responsible for making the ES-based approach operational. The application of these concepts to the marine environment should be based on an model different to the terrestrial one. In the latter, the basic model envisages a matrix of a human-altered landscape with fragments of original biodiversity; conversely, in the marine environment the model provides fragments where human activities are carried out and the matrix is represented by the original biodiversity. We have identified three main classes of ES provision: in natural, disturbed and human-controlled environments. Economic valuation of marine ESs is an essential condition for making conservation strategies financially sustainable, as it may stimulate the perceived need for investing in protection and exploitation of marine resources.     

考虑湿化效应的堆石料Gudehus-Bauer 亚塑性模型应用研究

在扼要分析堆石料主要力学特性的基础上,在亚塑性理论框架内,采用扩展的Gudehus-Bauer亚塑性模型对堆石料因含水率发生变化引起的湿化行为进行建模预测。扩展模型除能考虑含水率对颗粒硬度的影响外,还能反映土体密实度、应力状态和含水率等对堆石料非线性和非弹性变形的影响。将该模型应用于心墙坝初次蓄水时应力变形的亚塑性计算分析中。结果表明,扩展模型能较合理地反映心墙堆石坝的湿化变形规律。     

2011年5月11日西班牙东南洛尔卡Mw5．1地震诱发的大范围滑坡

2011年5月11日,一个中等震级地震（Mw5．1）袭击了西班牙东南部洛尔卡城和邻近地区,造成了显著的破坏和人员伤亡。通过地震影响区的野外考察对250多处主要是碎裂型（岩／土崩塌、碎裂的土质滑坡和岩崩）诱发滑坡进行了定点和特征描述。与以前该区域相似震级（Mw4．7～5．0）的地震事件,以及以前预测地震期间斜坡表现的模型结果相比,本次地震诱发滑坡的数量相当大。提出了几个原因来解释这种差异：（1）地震序列中相对高震级（Mw4．5）的前震可能弱化了区域内的斜坡强度;（2）这些事件产生了高的地震动峰值;（3）发生了地形场地效应。本研究的结果指出了在改进区域斜坡特征研究模型时考虑这些影响的重要性。     

The impact of dredge-fill on Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: regression and patterns of recovery

Posidonia oceanica meadows can be severely damaged by dredge-fill operations. We report on the construction of gas pipelines that occurred between 1981 and 1993 in SW Sicily, Italy. A large portion of the meadow was mechanically removed, and the excavated trench was filled with a mosaic of substrates, ranging from sand to consolidated rock debris. Meadow loss and recovery were quantified over 7 years after the end of operations. We recorded an overall loss of 81.20 ha of meadow. Substrate strongly affected recovery as the percent cover by P. oceanica consistently increased on calcareous rubble, reaching values of 44.37 ± 3.05% in shallow sites after 7 years, whereas no significant increase occurred on other substrates. As in the Mediterranean Sea exploitation of coastal areas continues to grow with consequent impacts on P. oceanica meadows, this case study illustrates how artificial rubble-like materials could be employed to support the restoration of damaged meadows.