Coping with food crises: Lessons from the American Dust Bowl on balancing local food,agro technology,social welfare,and government regulation agendas in food and farming systems

This paper examines four broad policy and public responses to the American Dust Bowl in the 1930s as a way of exploring how society today could address our own “food crisis”. More particularly, in the Dust Bowl some argued that solutions would be found by engineers and farmers who would develop new ways of watering dry fields. A second group believed that inappropriate political and economic incentives had led to bad farming practices prior to the drought and this contributed to wide-spread erosion. To this group, the best solutions included governmental regulation of farm practices. A third group focused on the welfare of individuals, arguing that creating a social safety net to protect marginalized families was the highest priority. Finally, there were commentators who advocated for a smaller scale, ecological, and holistic approach to farming. Today, the same four perspectives are present in debates about how to maintain global food security in light of population growth, high energy prices and climate change. Exploring the similarity of the discourses between today's food crisis and the one that hit American society 80 years ago reveals that advocates of the four different camps are motivated by very different principles. Briefly, proponents of technological solutions base many of their arguments on the assumption that human ingenuity is capable of producing extremely productive food systems. The managerial arguments, by contrast, are based on the idea that the natural environment can be rationally and efficiently managed using scientific principles. The social welfare narrative seeks to create a more equitable food system. Finally, the ecological and holistic narrative argues that diverse, small scale and local food systems are a prerequisite for long term sustainability. The primary contribution of this paper, therefore, is to expose these deeply held ontological tensions as a way of arguing that policy makers today must de-politicise arguments and use the principles embedded in all four narratives when designing programmes to ensure that the 21st century does not face a repeat of the crisis of the 1930s.     

Sea-level change and paleogeographic reconstructions,southern Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Forty-eight new and previously published radiocarbon ages constrain deglacial and postglacial sea levels on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Sea level fell rapidly from its high stand of about +75 m elevation just before 14 000 cal BP (12 000 radiocarbon yrs BP) to below the present shoreline by 13 200 cal BP (11 400 radiocarbon years BP). The sea fell below its present level 1000 years later in the central Strait of Georgia and 2000 years later in the northern Strait of Georgia, reflecting regional differences in ice sheet retreat and downwasting. Direct observations only constrain the low stand to be below ?11 m and above ?40 m. Analysis of the crustal isostatic depression with equations utilizing exponential decay functions appropriate to the Cascadia subduction zone, however, places the low stand at ?30 ± 5 m at about 11 200 cal BP (9800 BP). The inferred low stand for southern Vancouver Island, when compared to the sea-level curve previously derived for the central Strait of Georgia to the northwest, generates differential isostatic depression that is consistent with the expected crustal response between the two regions. Morphologic and sub-bottom features previously interpreted to indicate a low stand of ?50 to ?65 m are re-evaluated and found to be consistent with a low stand of ?30 ± 5 m. Submarine banks in eastern Juan de Fuca Strait were emergent at the time of the low stand, but marine passages persisted between southern Vancouver Island and the mainland. The crustal uplift presently occurring in response to the Late Pleistocene collapse of the southwestern sector of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet amounts to about 0.1 mm/yr. The small glacial isostatic adjustment rate is a consequence of low-viscosity mantle in this tectonically active region.     

Optical spectra of supernova remnant candidates in the Sculptor Group galaxy NGC 300

We present moderate-resolution (<5 Å) long-slit optical spectra of 51 nebular objects in the nearby Sculptor Group galaxy NGC 300 obtained with the 2.3 meter Advanced Technology Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory, Australia. Adopting the criterion of [S?ii]_Total:Hα≥0.4 to confirm supernova remnants (SNRs) from optical spectra, we find that of 28 objects previously proposed as SNRs from optical observations, 22 meet this criterion with six showing [S?ii]_Total:Hα of less than 0.4. Of 27 objects suggested as SNRs from radio data, four are associated with the 28 previously proposed SNRs. Of these four, three (included in the 22 above) meet the criterion. In all, 22 of the 51 nebular objects meet the [S ii]_Total:Hα criterion as SNRs while the nature of the remaining 29 objects remains undetermined by these observations.     

Multiphase Modeling of Geologic Carbon Sequestration in Saline Aquifers

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is being considered as a climate change mitigation option in many future energy scenarios. Mathematical modeling is routinely used to predict subsurface CO₂ and resident brine migration for the design of injection operations, to demonstrate the permanence of CO₂ storage, and to show that other subsurface resources will not be degraded. Many processes impact the migration of CO₂ and brine, including multiphase flow dynamics, geochemistry, and geomechanics, along with the spatial distribution of parameters such as porosity and permeability. In this article, we review a set of multiphase modeling approaches with different levels of conceptual complexity that have been used to model GCS. Model complexity ranges from coupled multiprocess models to simplified vertical equilibrium (VE) models and macroscopic invasion percolation models. The goal of this article is to give a framework of conceptual model complexity, and to show the types of modeling approaches that have been used to address specific GCS questions. Application of the modeling approaches is shown using five ongoing or proposed CO₂ injection sites. For the selected sites, the majority of GCS models follow a simplified multiphase approach, especially for questions related to injection and local‐scale heterogeneity. Coupled multiprocess models are only applied in one case where geomechanics have a strong impact on the flow. Owing to their computational efficiency, VE models tend to be applied at large scales. A macroscopic invasion percolation approach was used to predict the CO₂ migration at one site to examine details of CO₂ migration under the caprock.     

Evaluation of two algorithms for a network of coastal HF radars in the Mid-Atlantic Bight

The National High Frequency (HF) Surface Current Mapping Radar Network is being developed as a backbone system within the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System. This paper focuses on the application of HF radar-derived surface current maps to U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue operations along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the USA. In that context, we evaluated two algorithms used to combine maps of radial currents into a single map of total vector currents. In situ data provided by seven drifter deployments and four bottom-mounted current meters were used to (1) evaluate the well-established unweighted least squares (UWLS) and the more recently adapted optimal interpolation (OI) algorithms and (2) quantify the sensitivity of the OI algorithm to varying decorrelation scales and error thresholds. Results with both algorithms were shown to depend on the location within the HF radar data footprint. The comparisons near the center of the HF radar coverage showed no significant difference between the two algorithms. The most significant distinction between the two was seen in the drifter trajectories. With these simulations, the weighting of radial velocities by distance in the OI implementation was very effective at reducing both the distance between the actual drifter and the cluster of simulated particles as well as the scale of the search area that encompasses them. In this study, the OI further reduced the already improved UWLS-based search areas by an additional factor of 2. The results also indicated that the OI output was relatively insensitive to the varying decorrelation scales and error thresholds tested.     

Scenarios of global municipal water-use demand projections over the 21st century

Abstract

A comparison study is presented of three methods for evaluating trends in drought frequency: the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and a new method for estimation of dry spells (DS), which is based on average daily temperature and precipitation, and takes into account the length of a spell. The methods were applied to climate data from 450 stations in the Elbe River basin for the period 1951–2003, as well as data from several stations with longer observed time series. Statistical methods were used to calculate trend lines and evaluate the significance of detected trends. The dry spells estimated with the new method show significant trends in the whole lowland part of the Elbe basin during the last 53 years, and at the 10% level almost everywhere in the German part of the basin excluding mountains and the area around the river mouth. The SPI and PDSI methods also revealed significant trends, but for smaller areas in the lowland. The new DS method provides a useful supplement to other drought indices for the detection of trends in drought frequency. Furthermore, the DS method was able to detect statistically significant trends in areas where the other two methods failed to find significant trends, e.g. in the loess region in the southwest of the German part of the basin, where small insignificant changes in climate can lead to significant changes in water fluxes. This is important, because the loess region is the area within the basin having the highest crop yields. Therefore, additional research has to be done to investigate possible impacts of detected trends on water resources availability, and possible future trends in drought frequency under climate change.     

Adaptation behavior in the face of global climate change: Survey responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys

We conduct a survey to elicit responses from experts and decision makers serving the Florida Keys regarding vulnerability to global climate change. Study findings reveal deep concern among federal, state and local experts and decision makers about adverse impacts at the local level. A large majority of respondents recognize the increasing likelihood of dynamic, potentially irreversible, socioeconomic and ecological repercussions for the Florida Keys. However, very few experts and decision makers report that their respective agencies have developed formal adaptation plans. Respondents identify significant institutional and social barriers to adaptation and convey their support for a host of strategic measures to facilitate adaptation on an urgent basis. The implications of our findings are discussed in the context of enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience in the Florida Keys and beyond. Information generated from this study can provide functional guidance for improving decision-support systems and promoting adaptation policies.     

Land-use-mediated <Emphasis Type="Italic">Escherichia coli</Emphasis> concentrations in a contemporary Appalachian watershed

A high-spatial resolution study design was used to investigate the relationship between land use practices, stream physicochemistry, hydroclimate, and stream Escherichia (E) coli concentrations in a mixed-land-use watershed in the Appalachian region. Stream samples were collected daily from six monitoring sites and analyzed for total E. coli counts using an enzyme metabolism indicator method. Statistical comparison of E. coli concentration time series showed significant (p?<?0.05) differences between study sites. Although highest average E. coli concentrations were observed at two agricultural sites (534 and 582 colony-forming counts (CFU) per 100 mL, respectively), highest total loadings were observed within the receiving stream, with values increasing downstream (2?×?10¹² and 4.2?×?10¹² study total CFU for bracketed upstream and downstream sites, respectively). No single physical variable displayed a significant correlation (p?<?0.05) with observed E. coli concentration at every site. However, sites displayed different patterns of significant correlations (p?<?0.05) between E. coli concentration and both physicochemical (e.g. pH, dissolved oxygen saturation) and hydroclimate variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation). Percent agricultural land cover was the only land use category that showed significant (p?<?0.04) correlation with study average E. coli concentrations, thereby emphasizing the importance of land use practices to stream pathogen regimes. Results validate the analytical method and provide high-resolution, detailed, quantitative characterizations of stream E. coli regimes, thereby supplying land and water resource managers with science-based information to advance management decisions and improve public health.