Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.     

Climate-induced primary productivity change and fishing impacts on the Central North Pacific ecosystem and Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery

An existing Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for the Central North Pacific was updated and modified to focus on the area used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The EwE model was combined with output from a coupled NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate and biogeochemical model to investigate the likely ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate-induced primary productivity changes. Four simulations were conducted based on 2 fishing effort and climate scenarios from 2010 to 2100. Modeled small and large phytoplankton biomass decreased by 10 % and 20 % respectively, resulting in a 10 % decline in the total biomass of all higher trophic level groups combined. Climate impacts also affected the Hawaii longline fishery, with a 25–29 % reduction in modeled target species yield. Climate impacts on the ecosystem and the fishery were partially mitigated by a drop in fishing effort. Scenarios with a 50 % reduction in fishing effort partially restored longline target species yield to current levels, and decreased longline non-target species yield. These model results suggest that a further reduction in fishery landings mortality over time than the 2010 level may be necessary to mitigate climate impacts and help sustain yields of commercially preferred fish species targeted by the Hawaii longline fishery through the 21st century.     

The impact of parameter lumping and geometric simplification in modelling runoff and erosion in the shrublands of southeast Arizona

There have been many studies of hydrologic processes and scale. However, some researchers have found that predictions from hydrologic models may not be improved by attempting to incorporate the understanding of these processes into hydrologic models. This paper quantifies the effect of simplifying watershed geometry and averaging the parameter values on simulations generated using the KINEROS2 model. Furthermore, it examines how these changes in model input effect model output. The model was applied on a small semiarid rangeland watershed in which runoff is generated by the infiltration excess mechanism. The study concludes that averaging input parameter values has little effect on runoff volume and peak in simulating runoff. However, geometric simplification does have an effect on runoff peak and volume, but it is not statistically significant. In contrast, both averaging input parameter values and geometric simplification have an effect on model‐predicted sediment yield. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of thermal and cyclic stressing on the strength of rocks from Mount St. Helens, Washington

Stratovolcanoes and lava domes are particularly susceptible to sector collapse resulting from wholesale rock failure as a consequence of decreasing rock strength. Here, we provide insights into the influence of thermal and cyclic stressing on the strength and mechanical properties of volcanic rocks. Specifically, this laboratory study examines the properties of samples from Mount St. Helens; chosen because its strength and stability have played a key role in its history, influencing the character of the infamous 1980 eruption. We find that thermal stressing exerts different effects on the strengths of different volcanic units; increasing the heterogeneity of rocks in situ. Increasing the uniaxial compressive stress generates cracking, the timing and magnitude of which was monitored via acoustic emission (AE) output during our experiments. AEs accelerated in the approach to failure, sometimes following the pattern predicted by the failure forecast method (Kilburn 2003). Crack damage during the experiments was tracked using the evolving static Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which represent the quasi-static deformation in volcanic edifices more accurately than dynamic elastic moduli which are usually implemented in volcanic models. Cyclic loading of these rocks resulted in a lower failure strength, confirming that volcanic rocks may be weakened by repeated inflation and deflation of the volcanic edifice. Additionally, volcanic rocks in this study undergo significant elastic hysteresis; in some instances, a material may fail at a stress lower than the peak stress which has previously been endured. Thus, a volcanic dome repeatedly inflated and deflated may progressively weaken, possibly inducing failure without necessarily exceeding earlier conditions.     

Simultaneous Observations of the Chromosphere with TRACE and SUMER

Using mainly the 1600 Å continuum channel and also the 1216 Å Lyman-α channel (which includes some UV continuum and C iv emission) aboard the TRACE satellite, we observed the complete lifetime of a transient, bright chromospheric loop. Simultaneous observations with the SUMER instrument aboard the SOHO spacecraft revealed interesting material velocities through the Doppler effect existing above the chromospheric loop imaged with TRACE, possibly corresponding to extended nonvisible loops, or the base of an X-ray jet.