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21.
Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime. 相似文献
22.
The study examines how regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in their control simulations over Central Europe. We evaluate 30-year runs driven by perfect boundary conditions (the ERA40 reanalysis, 1961–1990) and a global climate model (ECHAM5) of an ensemble of RCMs with 25-km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project. The RCMs’ performance is compared against the dataset gridded from a high-density stations network. We find that all RCMs underestimate DTR in all seasons, notwithstanding whether driven by ERA40 or ECHAM5. Underestimation is largest in summer and smallest in winter in most RCMs. The relationship of the models’ errors to indices of atmospheric circulation and cloud cover is discussed to reveal possible causes of the biases. In all seasons and all simulations driven by ERA40 and ECHAM5, underestimation of DTR is larger under anticyclonic circulation and becomes smaller or negligible for cyclonic circulation. In summer and transition seasons, underestimation tends to be largest for the southeast to south flow associated with warm advection, while in winter it does not depend on flow direction. We show that the biases in DTR, which seem common to all examined RCMs, are also related to cloud cover simulation. However, there is no general tendency to overestimate total cloud amount under anticyclonic conditions in the RCMs, which suggests the large negative bias in DTR for anticyclonic circulation cannot be explained by a bias in cloudiness. Errors in simulating heat and moisture fluxes between land surface and atmosphere probably contribute to the biases in DTR as well. 相似文献
23.
Eva Holtanová Ji?í Mik?ovsky Jaroslava Kalvová Petr Pi?oft Martin Motl 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,108(3-4):463-470
We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs’ skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation. 相似文献
24.
Mark W. Shephard Eva Mekis Robert J. Morris Yang Feng Xuebin Zhang Karen Kilcup 《大气与海洋》2014,52(5):398-417
Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis. 相似文献
25.
Stefan Jansen Eva Walpersdorf Ursula Werner Markus Billerbeck Michael E Böttcher Dirk de Beer 《Ocean Dynamics》2009,59(2):317-332
In this article, we describe the dynamics of pH, O2 and H2S in the top 5–10 cm of an intertidal flat consisting of permeable sand. These dynamics were measured at the low water line
and higher up the flat and during several seasons. Together with pore water nutrient data, the dynamics confirm that two types
of transport act as driving forces for the cycling of elements (Billerbeck et al. 2006b): Fast surface dynamics of pore water chemistry occur only during inundation. Thus, they must be driven by hydraulics (tidal
and wave action) and are highly dependent on weather conditions. This was demonstrated clearly by quick variation in oxygen
penetration depth: Seeps are active at low tide only, indicating that the pore water flow in them is driven by a pressure
head developing at low tide. The seeps are fed by slow transport of pore water over long distances in the deeper sediment.
In the seeps, high concentrations of degradation products such as nutrients and sulphide were found, showing them to be the
outlets of deep-seated degradation processes. The degradation products appear toxic for bioturbating/bioirrigating organisms,
as a consequence of which, these were absent in the wider seep areas. These two mechanisms driving advection determine oxygen
dynamics in these flats, whereas bioirrigation plays a minor role. The deep circulation causes a characteristic distribution
of strongly reduced pore water near the low water line and rather more oxidised sediments in the centre of the flats. The
two combined transport phenomena determine the fluxes of solutes and gases from the sediment to the surface water and in this
way create specific niches for various types of microorganisms. 相似文献
26.
27.
M. Boccaletti M. Coli C. Eva G. Ferrari G. Giglia A. Lazzarotto F. Merlanti R. Nicolich G. Papani D. Postpischl 《Tectonophysics》1985,117(1-2)
The Northern Apennines have been subdivided into homogeneous zones, on the basis of recent structural evolution and crustal structure, in which the earthquake distribution can find a coherent framework. These zones, whose physiography is in strict connection with their structure, are: the Internal Peri-Tyrrhenian Belt; the External or Main Belt; the Buried Belt; and the Pede-Alpine Homocline. Earthquake activity has a tendency to cluster along well-defined bands, particularly in the easternmost border of the Peri-Tyrrhenian Belt, as well as along the zone between the External Belt and the Buried Belt, i.e. along the Padanian margin of the Northern Apennines.A minimum of seismic activity seems to be correlated with some zones of the External Belt, as well as with the Late Tertiary and Quaternary magmatic province of Tyrrhenian Southern Tuscany.The fault-plane solutions are coherent with the structural picture.A tentative seismotectonic model of the Northern Apennines is discussed. 相似文献
28.
Eva De Boever Marijke Huysmans Philippe Muchez Lyubomir Dimitrov Rudy Swennen 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009,26(8):1580-1591
Up to 10 m in length and >1 m in diameter tubular, calcite-cemented sandstone concretions are hosted by the faulted Dikilitash unconsolidated sands and sandstones. These structures document shallow subsurface pathways of Early Eocene methane seepage in the Balkan Mountains foreland (NE Bulgaria). Their exceptional exposure allowed a unique study of the factors governing the morphology and spatial distribution of such fossilized fluid conduits. The large dimensions and subvertical, cylindrical shape of the most common tube type primarily reflects the buoyancy-driven, vertical path of an ascending gas-bearing fluid through permeable, mainly unconsolidated sandy host sediments. Tube morphology was also influenced by local stratigraphic anisotropies and might as well document differences in former seepage conditions. Mapping of >800 tubular concretions showed the NNW–NNE elongation and alignment of tube clusters and massive cemented sandstone structures. This suggests that Paleogene fault systems played a major role in directing the movement of fluids. However, within a single tube cluster, tubes are preferentially aligned, over distances up to 50 m along directions at an angle between 10° and 36° with respect to the inferred NNW–NNE, cluster parallel fault traces. In addition, cylindrical tubes of analogue dimensions are aligned over distances >100 m along N15° to N25°-oriented directions. It is hypothesized that this spatial geometry of tubular concretions reflects the complex geometry of deformations structures in fault damage zones along which fluids were preferentially channelled. 相似文献
29.
Pietro Marescotti Eva Azzali Diego Servida Cristina Carbone Giovanni Grieco Luisa De Capitani Gabriella Lucchetti 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2010,61(1):187-199
In this work, we investigated a 3 ha sulphide-bearing waste-rock dump (Libiola Mine, Italy) using mineralogical, geochemical, and geostatistical analyses. The dumped materials were highly heterogeneous in grain size and lithology and varied both laterally and vertically. Other than the host rock of the ore, basalts and serpentinites, the dumped materials contained high amounts of low-grade chalcopyrite- and pyrite-rich mineralisations. Due to these characteristics and to the absence of minerals able to neutralise acidity, this waste-rock dump can be classified as an acid mine drainage (AMD) producer. The study confirms that AMD is still active and, in the best scenario, can persist for up to 6.17 × 103 years. The consequences of this process are of serious environmental concern as it involves strong acidification of the circulating waters, the release of potentially toxic metals into the soil, streams and rivers and the precipitation of huge quantities of secondary Fe-oxides and Fe-oxyhydroxides. 相似文献
30.