Seismic hazard in the Northwestern Apennines

A study of the seismic hazard for the Northwestern Apennines, based on seismotectonic and seismicity data, is presented. Starting from a seismotectonic analysis, showing the complex structural evolution of the region, the seismic activity in the period 1000–1975 has been modeled by some seismic source zones justified by geostructural and seismological considerations. The recurrence statistical parameters and the attenuation laws have been determined for all these sources. With an appropriate analysis method, maps of seismic hazard for return periods of 50, 200, and 500 years were elaborated. Finally, a comparison with the map of maximum felt intensity and with hazard values calculated by a different approach is presented.     

Projected evolution of circulation types and their temperatures over Central Europe in climate models

The study deals with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation (represented by circulation types) and associated surface air temperatures as projected in an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project. We examine changes of circulation type frequencies and means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures within circulation types in individual seasons for two time slices of transient runs under the SRES A1B scenario (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) with respect to the control period (1961–1990). To study the influence of driving data, simulations of the driving general circulation models (GCMs) also are evaluated. We find that all models project changes of atmospheric circulation that are statistically significant for both future time slices. The models tend to project strengthening of the westerly circulation in winter and its weakening in summer. We show that increases of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons differ for individual circulation types. There are, however, only few features of the projected changes in the future circulation–temperature links that are common among the models, in particular relatively smaller warming for westerly types. Only in winter, projected changes in circulation types tend to contribute to the projected overall warming. This effect is negligible and mostly opposite in the other seasons. We also detect a strong influence of driving data on RCMs’ simulation of atmospheric circulation and temperature changes.     

A closing Ligurian Sea?

Two earthquakes occurred in the Ligurian Sea in December 1989 and April 1990. Both were widely felt along the French and Italian Rivieras, thus reminding us of the seismic risk in this region. The significant increase in the number of seismic stations in the area facilitated the study of these two shocks and their related aftershocks. Using different techniques (absolute and relative hypocentral locations, doublet analysis and waveform modeling), we computed accurate hypocentral locations and estimated the location-error range for earthquakes in this area. We also computed the focal mechanisms for both mainshocks, and we present here a synthesis that integrates previous data. The reactivation in compression of the Ligurian Sea sphenochasm is confirmed, which would eventually result in the closing of an aborted oceanic domain. As the seismic activity is clearly restricted to the northern margin, we suggest it locally results from the lateral expulsion of the south-western Alps along the Apulian indenter.     

Accuracy of Laser Ablation U-Pb Zircon Dating: Results from a Test Using Five Different Reference Zircons

Using a state‐of‐the‐art 193 nm‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS system and with careful control of analytical procedures, the long term external reproducibility and accuracy of the ages Phanerozoic zircons measured over a period of months using calibrator bracketing for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages were ca. 1% (2 RSD) if a single reference zircon was used for the matrix‐matched calibration. When different reference zircons were used for the calibration, suspicious systematic shifts in the obtained ages were observed and thus a reduction in the overall accuracy of the dating method became obvious. Such shifts were within a few percent range of the U‐Pb and Pb/Pb ages and seemed to vary independently of zircon age and composition. A “test of accuracy” experiment was conducted reducing instrumental effects as far as possible by analysing five different reference zircons mounted on a single mount eight times during the same session. An identical protocol was used for all analyses, with unchanged instrument parameters and with ion beam intensities kept as identical as possible. For data reduction, every zircon served consecutively as the reference zircon for calibration, with the others in the batch treated as unknowns. The known reference age and the four calculated ages obtained using the four other RMs for calibration were then compared. Even using such a strict analytical protocol, shifts in ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U, ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratios were still present. They varied non‐systematically and ranged from ?4.35% to 3.08% for the investigated age range (1065 Ma to 226 Ma). Assuming the absence of instrumental effects (i.e., memory, dead‐time correction, non‐linearity of ion counters and interdetector calibration, crystallographic orientation, ablation cell geometry and setup, gas flows), the observed shifts were attributed to matrix and/or ablation related effects. It is proposed that non‐spectral matrix effects in the Ar plasma torch resulted in non‐uniform signal enhancement (or depression?) leading to shifts both in elemental and Pb isotopic ratios. Additionally, the ablated particle size distribution could be an important factor controlling plasma conditions and thus mass bias and fractionation. Until such effects are well understood and controlled, it would seem that any LA‐ICP‐MS zircon U‐Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age determination cannot be meaningfully interpreted at below a ca. 3% to 4% (2 RSD) confidence level.     

Air–Sea \mathrm{CO}_{2} Gas Transfer Velocity in a Shallow Estuary

The air–sea transfer velocity of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}\, (k_{\mathrm{CO}_{2}})$ was investigated in a shallow estuary in March to July 2012, using eddy-covariance measurements of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes and measured air–sea $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ partial-pressure differences. A data evaluation method that eliminates data by nine rejection criteria in order to heighten parametrization certainty is proposed. We tested the data evaluation method by comparing two datasets: one derived using quality criteria related solely to the eddy-covariance method, and the other derived using quality criteria based on both eddy-covariance and cospectral peak methods. The best parametrization of transfer velocity normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 $(k_{600})$ was determined to be: $k_{600} = 0.3\,{U_{10}}^{2.5}$ where $U_{10}$ is the wind speed in m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at 10 m; $k_{600}$ is based on $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes calculated by the eddy-covariance method and including the cospectral peak method criteria. At low wind speeds, the transfer velocity in the shallow water estuary was lower than in other coastal waters, possibly a symptom of low tidal amplitude leading to low intensity water turbulence. High transfer velocities were recorded above wind speeds of 5 m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ , believed to be caused by early-breaking waves and the large fetch (6.5 km) of the estuary. These findings indicate that turbulence in both air and water influences the transfer velocity.     

Long-Term Evolution of FU Ori-Type Stars at Infrared Wavelengths

We investigated the brightness evolution of 5 FU Ori systems in the 1–200 μm wavelength range using observations from the Infrared Space Observatory, 2MASS and MSX data. The SEDs were compared with earlier ones derived from the IRAS photometry and ground-based observations around the epoch 1983. In three cases no difference was seen, in one object the near- and mid-infrared part of the spectrum became fainter by a factor of 2, and in the fifth case a marginal fading was observed. We study in detail the case of V1057 Cyg.