Potential loading damage to industrial storage tanks due to volcanic ash fallout

The phenomenon of volcanic fallout ash from Mt. Etna in Sicily (Italy) is well known and frequent in recent years, as in the period 2001–2004. As a consequence, significant problems for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities have occurred. The industrial areas of Catania and Augusta-Priolo, located in south eastern Sicily, might be involved during particular weather conditions. This paper aims at determining the potential scenarios of damage to industrial facilities caused by volcanic ash fallout. The work has been focused on the study of both fixed and floating roof storage tanks, containing flammable liquids, and examines extreme failures damage causing the greatest loss of containment for these facilities. To include scenarios arising from natural phenomena (Na-Tech events) in the standard risk assessment procedure, the estimation of the vulnerability of these facilities is necessary. The study has been applied to the area surrounding Mt. Etna, and the procedure can also be extended to other case studies.     

Spatial variability of soil nutrients in disturbed riverine mangrove forests at different stages of regeneration in the San Juan River estuary,Venezuela

Geostatistical analysis of selected soil properties were performed in two mangrove sites (B7 and B9) dominated by the mangrove speciesRhizophora mangle along the San Juan River, Venezuela, to evaluate the effect of forest disturbance on nutrient spatial distributions. Plots within area B7 were clear-cut in 1972–1973 and in area B9 in 1982–1983. Four plots within each area were systematically selected and represented natural (2) and regenerated (2) forests. Individual plots were 1.5 ha in B7 and 1.25 ha in B9 and sampled at a resolution of 25 m. Soil samples were obtained at the intersection of an aligned grid with 90 points in B7 and 78 points in B9. Measured soil properties included salinity, total nitrogen, total carbon, total phosphorus, osmolality, and pore water cation concentrations (potassium, calcium, magnesium, and sodium). Sites were sampled in May 1996 and 1997, although spatial analysis was performed only for the data obtained in May 1997. Geostatistical analysis showed that most of the variables tested were spatially auto-correlated within each area and that there were no differences between regenerated and natural plots. Structural variance as a proportion of sample variance ranged from 55–99% for most of the properties. The significant spatial dependence observed for most of the variables in natural and regenerated plots, despite management schedules, indicates that clear-cutting did not have an effect on modifying the distribution of nutrient concentrations. These results suggest that after 15 and 25 yr following forest disturbance nutrient distributions were reestablished either there was not a net effect on patterns of element loss or tidal input was stronger than plant modifications of soils.     

A relocatable ocean model in support of environmental emergencies

During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.     

Simulated Urban Climate Response to Historical Land Use Modification in the Basin of Mexico

Numerical simulations of thermal field variation due to land use changes, such as the reduction of the lacustrine system and the growth of the urban area, in the Basin of Mexico are presented. It is shown that the historically recorded warming in the basin could be attributed, not only to the growth of the urban area, but more importantly to the drastic reduction in the lacustrine system that existed in the basin.     

Improved initial ensemble generation coupled with ensemble square root filters and inflation to estimate uncertainty

The performance of the Ensemble Kalman Filter method (EnKF) depends on the sample size compared to the dimension of the parameters space. In real applications insufficient sampling may result in spurious correlations which reduce the accuracy of the filter with a strong underestimation of the uncertainty. Covariance localization and inflation are common solutions to these problems. The Ensemble Square Root Filters (ESRF) is also better to estimate uncertainty with respect to the EnKF. In this work we propose a method that limits the consequences of sampling errors by means of a convenient generation of the initial ensemble. This regeneration is based on a Stationary Orthogonal-Base Representation (SOBR) obtained via a singular value decomposition of a stationary covariance matrix estimated from the ensemble. The technique is tested on a 2D single phase reservoir and compared with the other common techniques. The evaluation is based on a reference solution obtained with a very large ensemble (one million members) which remove the spurious correlations. The example gives evidence that the SOBR technique is a valid alternative to reduce the effect of sampling error. In addition, when the SOBR method is applied in combination with the ESRF and inflation, it gives the best performance in terms of uncertainty estimation and oil production forecast.     

Spatial pattern of photospheric granules in a sunspot neighborhood

Based on high-resolution (0.3 arcsec) observations, we studied the behavior of solar granulation in the neighborhood of a sunspot. The bright granules’ spatial distribution and the granules’ surface density as a function of distance from the center of the sunspot umbra were determined.Bright granules distribute delimiting cells of dimensions in the mesogranular scale. The mean diameter of these cells does not show significant variation with the variation of the magnetic field of the sunspot. The granules’ surface density does not show significant variation with distance to the sunspot umbra. Both results point to a very weak, if any, influence of the sunspot magnetic field at distances greater than 20 arcsec.     

Symbiodinium (internal transcribed spacer 2) diversity in the coral host Agaricia lamarcki (Cnidaria: Scleractinia) between shallow and mesophotic reefs in the Northern Caribbean (20–70 m)

This study investigated differences in Symbiodinium diversity in the scleractinian coral species Agaricia lamarcki between shallow (20–25 m) and mesophotic (50–70 m) depths in the Northern Caribbean. Corals were sampled in each of four shallow sites (20–25 m; n = 18) and three mesophotic sites (50–70 m; n = 18) from Mona Island (Puerto Rico) and the US Virgin Islands during a mesophotic exploratory cruise and from the La Parguera shelf edge, off Southwestern Puerto Rico. Symbiodinium diversity was assessed using internal transcribed spacer 2 sequences clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Clustering resulted in eight clade C OTUs and one clade D OTU. Of these, there were three common Symbiodinium OTUs consisting of C3 and D1a.N14 in shallow reefs and C11.N4 in mesophotic reefs. Statistical tests (permutational multivariate analysis of variance and analysis of similarity) showed significant differences between clade C Symbiodinium OTUs in A. lamarcki colonies located at shallow and mesophotic depths, indicating symbiont zonation. Symbiodinium diversity in A. lamarcki from the Northern Caribbean is comparable to previous reports in the Southern Caribbean for this species. This is the first report of the thermal tolerant species Symbiodinium trenchii (D1a) in A. lamarcki.     

Oil-spill fishery impact assessment model: Application to selected Georges Bank fish species

An oil-spill fishery impact assessment model composed of an oil-spill fates model, a shelf hydrodynamics model, an ichthyoplankton transport and fate model, and a fishery population model originally developed by Reed & Spaulding, has been improved and applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the probable impact of oil spills on several key fisheries. The model addresses direct impacts of oil on the commercial fishery through hydrocarbon-induced egg and larval mortality. This early life stage hydrocarbon-induced mortality is estimated by assuming a toxicity threshold approach and by mapping the spatial/temporal interaction between the subsurface oil concentrations caused by the spill and the developing eggs and larvae. Model output is given in terms of differential catch, with a comparison made of hydrocarbon-impacted fisheries.Simulations of tanker and blowout spills at two separate locations for each season of the year in the Outer Continental Shelf lease areas have been completed for Atlantic herring, haddock, and Atlantic cod. Results to date suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal spawning distribution of the species, and the hydrodynamics of the area. The largest impacts occur for spring and winter spills.