Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....     

Object and Pixel-Based Reservoir Modeling of a Braided Fluvial Reservoir

To assess differences between object and pixel-based reservoir modeling techniques, ten realizations of a UK Continental Shelf braided fluvial reservoir were produced using Boolean Simulation (BS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Various sensitivities associated with geological input data as well as with technique-specific modeling parameters were analyzed for both techniques. The resulting realizations from the object-based and pixel-based modeling efforts were assessed by visual inspection and by evaluation of the values and ranges of the single-phase effective permeability tensors, obtained through upscaling. The BS method performed well for the modeling of two types of fluvial channels, yielding well-confined channels, but failed to represent the complex interaction of these with sheetflood and other deposits present in the reservoir. SIS gave less confined channels and had great difficulty in representing the large-scale geometries of one type of channel while maintaining its appropriate proportions. Adding an SIS background to the Boolean channels, as opposed to a Boolean background, resulted in an improved distribution of sheetflood bodies. The permeability results indicated that the SIS method yielded models with much higher horizontal permeability values (20–100%) and lower horizontal anisotropy than the BS versions. By widening the channel distribution and increasing the range of azimuths, however, the BS-produced models gave results approaching the SIS behavior. For this reservoir, we chose to combine the two methods by using object-based channels and a pixel-based heterogeneous background, resulting in moderate permeability and anisotropy levels.     

Spatial constrained inverse rock physics modelling

Predicting reservoir parameters, such as porosity, lithology, and saturations, from geophysical parameters is a problem with non‐unique solutions. The variance in solutions can be extensive, especially for saturation and lithology. However, the reservoir parameters will typically vary smoothly within certain zones—in vertical and horizontal directions. In this work, we integrate spatial correlations in the predicted parameters to constrain the range of predicted solutions from a particular type of inverse rock physics modelling method. Our analysis is based on well‐log data from the Glitne field, where vertical correlations with depth are expected. It was found that the reservoir parameters with the shortest depth correlation (lithology and saturation) provided the strongest constraint to the set of solutions. In addition, due to the interdependence between the reservoir parameters, constraining the predictions by the spatial correlation of one parameter also reduced the number of predictions of the other two parameters. Moreover, the use of additional constraints such as measured log data at specific depth locations can further narrow the range of solutions.     

Bifurcation of the Pacific North Equatorial Current in a wind-driven model: response to climatological winds

The sensitivity of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the Pacific to different wind products is investigated. Variations of the bifurcation latitude with season is simulated in a purely wind-driven model and is found to be in agreement with recent observations. The seasonal cycle is nearly independent of the wind climatology, but the annual average latitude depends on the wind stress curl. It is also shown that in the upper ocean, the poleward shift in bifurcation latitude with depth is realistic in our simple model. This implies that given a stratification close to the observed, it is primarily the wind forcing that determines the location of the bifurcation and its seasonal variation.     

Assessment of the influence of horizontal diaphragms on the seismic performance of vernacular buildings

The awareness and preservation of the vernacular heritage and traditional construction techniques and materials is crucial as a key element of cultural identity. However, vernacular architecture located in earthquake prone areas can show a particularly poor seismic performance because of inadequate construction practices resulting from economic restraints and lack of resources. The horizontal diaphragms are one of the key aspects influencing the seismic behavior of buildings because of their major role transmitting the seismic actions to the vertical resisting elements of the structure. This paper presents a numerical parametric study adopted to understand the seismic behavior and resisting mechanisms of vernacular buildings according to the type of horizontal diaphragm considered. Detailed finite element modeling and nonlinear static (pushover) analyses were used to perform the thorough parametric study aimed at the evaluation and quantification of the influence of the type of diaphragm in the seismic behavior of vernacular buildings. The reference models used for this study simulate representative rammed earth and stone masonry vernacular buildings commonly found in the South of Portugal. Therefore, this paper also contributes for a better insight of the structural behavior of vernacular earthen and stone masonry typologies under seismic loading.     

Comparison Between Stress and Strain Quantities of the Failure–Deformation Process of Fennoscandian Hard Rocks Using Geological Information

The aim of this paper was to compare the stress and strain quantities that are related to the failure–deformation process of hard rock. The data used here was obtained from laboratory uniaxial compression tests performed on different types of Fennoscandian hard rocks. The failure–deformation process quantities were compared at each deformation stage and for each single specimen. Moreover, geological information such as the rock origin process and the rock characteristics of the specimens were studied and linked to the stress and strain quantities. The purpose was to investigate the influence of the rock origin process and rock characteristics on these quantities. The main results of this study showed that the normalized crack damage lateral strain (ε _3cd/ε _3p ) and the volumetric strain (ε _crv?ci and ε _v?cd) quantities were strongly affected by the grain size. The normalized and volumetric quantities are weakly dependent on the mineral composition.     

Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies

Previous experimental studies have found that people generally misperceive the basic dynamics of renewable resources, and in particular the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. The purpose of the present laboratory experiment is to find out why people misperceive the dynamics of CO₂ accumulation and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a simulator, 242 subjects were each asked to control total global emissions of CO₂ to reach a given target for the stock of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Consistent with previous investigations we find a strong tendency for people to overshoot the stated goal. Furthermore, our results point out that people need help to develop proper mental models of CO₂ accumulation and they need motivation to reconsider inappropriate decision heuristics. Based on these results and the literature on conceptual change a new information strategy is designed. To motivate, it imposes cognitive conflict; and to facilitate new understanding, it provides simple analogies. A new test shows promising learning effects. The results have important implications for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), governments, and media covering the climatic change issue as well as for general education.     

From the Sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 Coronal Mass Ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching ?263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.