Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach

Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain).     

Volatile loss from melt inclusions in pyroclasts of differing sizes

We have investigated the loss of H₂O from olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MIs) by designing an experiment using tephra samples that cooled at different rates owing to their different sizes: ash, lapilli, and bomb samples that were deposited on the same day (10/17/74) of the sub-Plinian eruption of Volcán de Fuego in Guatemala. Ion microprobe, laser ablation-ICPMS, and electron probe analyses show that MIs from ash and lapilli record the highest H₂O contents, up to 4.4 wt%. On the other hand, MIs from bombs indicate up to 30 % lower H₂O contents (loss of ~1 wt% H₂O) and 10 % post-entrapment crystallization of olivine. This evidence is consistent with the longer cooling time available for a bomb-sized clast, up to 10 min for a 3–4-cm radius bomb, assuming conductive cooling and the fastest H diffusivities measured in olivine (D~10^?9 to 10^?10 m²/s). On the other hand, several lines of evidence point to some water loss prior to eruption, during magma ascent and degassing in the conduit. Thus, results point to both slower post-eruptive cooling and slower magma ascent affecting MIs from bombs, leading to H₂O loss over the timescale of minutes to hours. The important implication of this study is that a significant portion of the published data on H₂O concentrations in olivine-hosted MIs may reflect unrecognized H₂O loss via diffusion. This work highlights the importance of reporting clast and MI sizes in order to assess diffusive effects and the potential benefit of using water loss as a chronometer of magma ascent.     

Crystal reaming during the assembly, maturation, and waning of an eleven-million-year crustal magma cycle: thermobarometry of the Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster

Phenocryst assemblages of lavas from the long-lived Aucanquilcha Volcanic Cluster (AVC) have been probed to assess pressure and temperature conditions of pre-eruptive arc magmas. Andesite to dacite lavas of the AVC erupted throughout an 11-million-year, arc magmatic cycle in the central Andes in northern Chile. Phases targeted for thermobarometry include amphibole, plagioclase, pyroxenes, and Fe–Ti oxides. Overall, crystallization is documented over 1–7.5 kbar (~25 km) of pressure and ~680–1,110 °C of temperature. Pressure estimates range from ~1 to 5 kbar for amphiboles and from ~3 to 7.5 kbar for pyroxenes. Pyroxene temperatures are tightly clustered from ~1,000–1,100 °C, Fe–Ti oxide temperatures range from ~750–1,000 °C, and amphibole temperatures range from ~780–1,050 °C. Although slightly higher, these temperatures correspond well with previously published zircon temperatures ranging from ~670–900 °C. Two different Fe–Ti oxide thermometers (Andersen and Lindsley 1985; Ghiorso and Evans 2008) are compared and agree well. We also compare amphibole and amphibole–plagioclase thermobarometers (Ridolfi et al. 2010; Holland and Blundy 1994; Anderson and Smith 1995), the solutions from which do not agree well. In samples where we employ multiple thermometers, pyroxene temperature estimates are always highest, zircon temperature estimates are lowest, and Fe–Ti oxide and amphibole temperature estimates fall in between. Maximum Fe–Ti oxide and zircon temperatures are observed during the middle stage of AVC activity (~5–3 Ma), a time associated with increased eruption rates. Amphibole temperatures during this time are relatively restricted (~850–1,000 °C). The crystal record presented here offers a time-transgressive view of an evolving, multi-tiered subvolcanic reservoir. Some crystals in AVC lavas are likely to be true phenocrysts, but the diversity of crystallization temperatures and pressures recorded by phases in individual AVC lavas suggests erupting magma extensively reams and accumulates crystals from disparate levels of the middle to upper crust.     

Bayesian modelling the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream

We present an 8000‐year history spanning 650 km of ice margin retreat for the largest marine‐terminating ice stream draining the former British–Irish Ice Sheet. Bayesian modelling of the geochronological data shows the ISIS expanded 34.0–25.3 ka, accelerating into the Celtic Sea to reach maximum limits 25.3–24.5 ka before a collapse with rapid marginal retreat to the northern Irish Sea Basin (ISB). This retreat was rapid and driven by climatic warming, sea‐level rise, mega‐tidal amplitudes and reactivation of meridional circulation in the North Atlantic. The retreat, though rapid, is uneven, with the stepped retreat pattern possibly a function of the passage of the ice stream between normal and adverse ice bed gradients and changing ice stream geometry. Initially, wide calving margins and adverse slopes encouraged rapid retreat (～550 m a^?1) that slowed (～100 m a^?1) at the topographic constriction and bathymetric high between southern Ireland and Wales before rates increased (～200 m a^?1) across adverse bed slopes and wider and deeper basin configuration in the northern ISB. These data point to the importance of the ice bed slope and lateral extent in predicting the longer‐term (>1000 a) patterns and rates of ice‐marginal retreat during phases of rapid collapse, which has implications for the modelling of projected rapid retreat of present‐day ice streams. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scombroclupea occidentalis</Emphasis> sp. nov. (Clupeiformes,Teleostei) from the Cenomanian (Cretaceous) Plattenkalk deposits of NE Mexico

A new species of the clupeid genus Scombroclupea is described from the Upper Cretaceous (Cenomanian) Plattenkalk locality “Loma la Mula” in Coahuila, northeastern Mexico. The material provides new osteological data for the genus, which clarify its systematic position. The Mexican Scombroclupea points to an occurrence of the genus in the western Tethys and indicates a vicariant event between S. macrophthalma from Lebanon and Croatia and the new species described herein. The analysis of the functional morphology of Scombroclupea supports the reconstruction of an oscillatory locomotion mode in this genus.     

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).     

Holocene tectono-geomorphic evolution of Haryana plains,Western Ganga plain,India

Haryana plain is the drainage divide between the Ganga plain in the east and the Indus plain in the west. Being a part of the Himalayan foreland, its geomorphology, sedimentation processes, and tectonism are broadly controlled by the Himalayan tectonics. Soil and geomorphological mapping in Haryana plain bring out geomorphic features such as paleochannels, various active drainage patterns, and landforms such as old fluvial plains, floodplains, piedmonts, pediments, terminal fans, and eolian plains. Based on the degree of soil development, and Optical stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages, the soil-geomorphic units were grouped into six members (QIMS-I to VI) (Quaternary Indus Morphostratigraphic Sequence) of a morphostratigraphic sequence: QIMS-VI 9.86–5.38 Ka, QIMS-V 5.38–4.45 Ka, QIMS-IV 4.45–3.60 Ka, QIMS-III 3.60–2.91 Ka, QIMS-II <?2.91–1.52 Ka, and QIMS-I <?1.52 Ka. OSL chronology of different geomorphic features suggests six episodes of tectono-geomorphic evolution in the region since 10 Ka. Neotectonic features such as nine faults, two lineaments, and five fault-bounded tectonic blocks have been identified. Independent tilting and sagging of the blocks in response to neotectonics have resulted in modification of landforms, depositional processes, and hydro-geomorphology of the region. Major rivers like the Yamuna, the Ghaggar, and the Sutlej show different episodes of shifting of their courses. Lineament controlled few extinct channels have been recorded between 20 and 25 m depth below the surface in the ground-penetrating radar (GPR) profiles. These buried channels are aligned along the paleo-course of the Lost Saraswati River interpreted from the existing literature and hence are considered as the course of the lost river. Seven terminal fans have been formed on the downthrown blocks of the associated faults. The Markanda Terminal Fan, the first of such features described, is indeed a splay terminal fan and was formed by a splay distributary system of the Markanda River. Association of three terminal fans of different ages with the Karnal fault indicates the segment-wise development of the fault from west to east. Also, comparison with other such studies in the Ganga plain to further east suggests that the terminal fans formed by streams with distributary drainage pattern occur only in semiarid regions as in the present area and thus are indicators of semiarid climate/paleoclimate. Though the whole region is tectonically active, the region between the Rohtak fault and Hisar fault is most active at present signified by the concentration of earthquake epicenters.     

Application of instantaneous amplitude gradient for ground penetrating radar signal analyses

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is an effective geophysical method for environmental and engineering exploration. However, significant background interference occurs around most work sites, which increases the difficulty of analyzing and interpreting GPR profiles. For time-distance profile analyses, more accurate results can be obtained using the instantaneous parameters of the analytic signals. In this study, these instantaneous parameters are extracted and compared using 1D model waveform and 2D model strong interference profiles. The results show that the instantaneous amplitude gradient effectively reflects the model information, even under strong interference. The instantaneous amplitude gradient is applied to GPR survey data from a study site, and the results indicate that the technique reflects the underground structure information of the survey area. Drilling verification further confirms that the instantaneous amplitude gradient accurately reflects the underground structure information.