When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Prediction of the calcium carbonate budget in a sedimentary basin: A “source-to-sink” approach applied to Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA

Most source-to-sink studies typically focus on the dynamics of clastic sediments and consider erosion, transport and deposition of sediment particles as the sole contributors. Although often neglected, dissolved solids produced by weathering processes contribute significantly in the sedimentary dynamics of basins, supporting chemical and/or biological precipitation. Calcium ions are usually a major dissolved constituent of water drained through the watershed and may facilitate the precipitation of calcium carbonate when supersaturating conditions are reached. The high mobility of Ca²⁺ ions may cause outflow from an open system and consequently loss. In contrast, in closed basins, all dissolved (i.e. non-volatile) inputs converge at the lowest point of the basin. The endoreic Great Salt Lake basin constitutes an excellent natural laboratory to study the dynamics of calcium on a basin scale, from the erosion and transport through the watershed to the sink, including sedimentation in lake's waterbody. The current investigation focused on the Holocene epoch. Despite successive lake level fluctuations (amplitude around 10 m), the average water level seems to have not been affected by any significant long-term change (i.e. no increasing or decreasing trend, but fairly stable across the Holocene). Weathering of calcium-rich minerals in the watershed mobilizes Ca²⁺ ions that are transported by surface streams and subsurface flow to the Great Salt Lake (GSL). Monitoring data of these flows was corrected for recent anthropogenic activity (river management) and combined with direct precipitation (i.e. rain and snow) and atmospheric dust income into the lake, allowing estimating the amount of calcium delivered to the GSL. These values were then extrapolated through the Holocene period and compared to the estimated amount of calcium stored in GSL water column, porewater and sediments (using hydrochemical, mapping, coring and petrophysical estimates). The similar estimate of calcium delivered (4.88 Gt) and calcium stored (3.94 Gt) is consistent with the premise of the source-to-sink approach: a mass balance between eroded and transported compounds and the sinks. The amount of calcium deposited in the basin can therefore be predicted indirectly from the different inputs, which can be assessed with more confidence. When monitoring is unavailable (e.g. in the fossil record), the geodynamic context, the average lithology of the watershed and the bioclimatic classification of an endoreic basin are alternative properties that may be used to estimate the inputs. We show that this approach is sufficiently accurate to predict the amount of calcium captured in a basin and can be extended to the whole fossil record and inform on the storage of calcium.     

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.     

The Symbolic Wolf: A Construal Level Theory Analysis of the Perceptions of Wolves in the United States

Charismatic wildlife can be difficult to manage due to the controversies they generate among stakeholders, which may be rooted in their symbolic meaning. Using construal-level theory, we coded the images of gray wolves mentioned by respondents to a national survey (n?=?621) and an issue public survey (n?=?447) as symbolic (abstract) or corporeal (concrete). We analyzed the relationship between these representations of wolves and several perceptions that may perpetuate social conflict. Most people thought of wolves abstractly, and abstract thoughts were associated with positive feelings toward wolves and agreement with existence beliefs regarding wolves. Concrete representations were associated with identifying as a gun or property rights advocate, hunter, or farmer/rancher. Given these disparate views of wolves, engaging stakeholders through collaborative processes designed to foster a shared understanding of this species, while addressing the concerns of those groups, could be useful in reducing conflict concerning wolf management.     

Surficial and Deep Earth Material Prediction from Geochemical Compositions

Prediction of true classes of surficial and deep earth materials using multivariate spatial data is a common challenge for geoscience modelers. Most geological processes leave a footprint that can be explored by geochemical data analysis. These footprints are normally complex statistical and spatial patterns buried deep in the high-dimensional compositional space. This paper proposes a spatial predictive model for classification of surficial and deep earth materials derived from the geochemical composition of surface regolith. The model is based on a combination of geostatistical simulation and machine learning approaches. A random forest predictive model is trained, and features are ranked based on their contribution to the predictive model. To generate potential and uncertainty maps, compositional data are simulated at unsampled locations via a chain of transformations (isometric log-ratio transformation followed by the flow anamorphosis) and geostatistical simulation. The simulated results are subsequently back-transformed to the original compositional space. The trained predictive model is used to estimate the probability of classes for simulated compositions. The proposed approach is illustrated through two case studies. In the first case study, the major crustal blocks of the Australian continent are predicted from the surface regolith geochemistry of the National Geochemical Survey of Australia project. The aim of the second case study is to discover the superficial deposits (peat) from the regional-scale soil geochemical data of the Tellus Project. The accuracy of the results in these two case studies confirms the usefulness of the proposed method for geological class prediction and geological process discovery.

     

Same space – different perspectives: comparative analysis of geographic context through sketch maps and spatial video geonarratives

ABSTRACT

The importance of including a contextual underpinning to the spatial analysis of social data is gaining traction in the spatial science community. The challenge, though, is how to capture these data in a rigorous manner that is translational. One method that has shown promise in achieving this aim is the spatial video geonarrative (SVG), and in this paper we pose questions that advance the science of geonarratives through a case study of criminal ex-offenders. Eleven ex-offenders provided sketch maps and SVGs identifying high-crime areas of their community. Wordmapper software was used to map and classify the SVG content; its spatial filter extension was used for hot spot mapping with statistical significance tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Then, each subject’s sketch map and SVG were compared. Results reveal that SVGs consistently produce finer spatial-scale data and more locations of relevance than the sketch maps. SVGs also provide explanation of spatial-temporal processes and causal mechanisms linked to specific places, which are not evident in the sketch maps. SVG can be a rigorous translational method for collecting data on the geographic context of many phenomena. Therefore, this paper makes an important advance in understanding how environmentally immersive methods contribute to the understanding of geographic context.     

Spatiotemporal aspects of silica buffering in restored tidal marshes

Losses of pelagic diatom production resulting from silica limitation have not only been blamed for toxic algal blooms, but for the reduction in ability of coastal food webs to support higher trophic levels. Recent research has shown the importance of advective seepage water fluxes of dissolved silica (DSi) from freshwater marshes to pelagic waters during moments of riverine Si-limitation. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of recently installed new tidal areas along the Schelde estuary, located in former polder areas and characterized by so-called controlled reduced tidal regimes (CRT). Nine mass-balance studies were conducted in a newly constructed CRT in the freshwater Schelde estuary. During complete tidal cycles both DSi and amorphous silica (ASi) concentrations were monitored at the entrance culverts and in different habitats in the marsh. A swift DSi-delivery capacity was observed despite the shifted spatiotemporal frame of exchange processes compared to reference marshes. As silica-accumulating vegetation is not yet present, and difference with reference marshes’ deliveries is surprisingly small, we indicate diatomaceous debris and phytoliths to be the main silica source. Although further research is necessary on the driving forces of the different processes involved, restoration of former agricultural areas under CRT-regime provide the potential to buffer silica in the estuary.     

Shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries

Substantial ecological, economic and social problems result from shark interactions in pelagic longline fisheries. Improved understanding of industry attitudes and practices towards shark interactions assists with managing these problems. Information on fisher knowledge and new strategies for shark avoidance may benefit sharks and fishers. A study of 12 pelagic longline fisheries from eight countries shows that incentives to avoid sharks vary along a continuum, based on whether sharks represent an economic disadvantage or advantage. Shark avoidance practices are limited, including avoiding certain areas, moving when shark interaction rates are high, using fish instead of squid for bait and deeper setting. Some conventionally employed fishing gear and methods used to target non-shark species contribute to shark avoidance. Shark repellents hold promise; more research and development is needed. Development of specifically designed equipment to discard sharks could improve shark post release survival prospects, reduce gear loss and improve crew safety. With expanding exploitation of sharks for fins and meat, improved data collection, monitoring and precautionary shark management measures are needed to ensure that shark fishing mortality levels are sustainable.