Paleoecology of a Middle Wisconsin Deposit from Southern California

Analysis of a buried deposit in the Diamond Valley of southern California has revealed well-preserved pollen, wood, and diatom remains. Accelerator mass spectrometry dates of 41,200±2100 and 41,490±1380 ¹⁴C yr B.P. place this deposit in marine isotope stage 3. Diatoms suggest a shallow lacustrine environment. Pollen data suggest that several plant communities were present near the site, with grassland, scrub, chaparral, forest, and riparian communities represented. Comparison with modern pollen suggests similarities with montane forests in the nearby San Bernardino and San Jacinto ranges, indicating vegetation lowering by at least 900 m elevation and temperatures 4°–5°C cooler than today. An increase in high-elevation conifer pollen documents climatic cooling near the profile top. Early-profile diatoms are typical of warm water with high alkalinity and conductivity, whereas later diatoms suggest a higher flow regime and input of cooler water into the system. We suggest that the sequence is part of the cooling phase of an interstadial Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle. Records of the middle Wisconsin period are rare in southern California, but the Diamond Valley site is similar to records from Tulare Lake in the San Joaquin Valley and the ODP Site 893A record from Santa Barbara Basin. It is probable that the Diamond Valley assemblage is a local expression of a vegetation type widespread in the ranges and basins of southwestern California during the middle Wisconsin.     

The Symbolic Wolf: A Construal Level Theory Analysis of the Perceptions of Wolves in the United States

Charismatic wildlife can be difficult to manage due to the controversies they generate among stakeholders, which may be rooted in their symbolic meaning. Using construal-level theory, we coded the images of gray wolves mentioned by respondents to a national survey (n?=?621) and an issue public survey (n?=?447) as symbolic (abstract) or corporeal (concrete). We analyzed the relationship between these representations of wolves and several perceptions that may perpetuate social conflict. Most people thought of wolves abstractly, and abstract thoughts were associated with positive feelings toward wolves and agreement with existence beliefs regarding wolves. Concrete representations were associated with identifying as a gun or property rights advocate, hunter, or farmer/rancher. Given these disparate views of wolves, engaging stakeholders through collaborative processes designed to foster a shared understanding of this species, while addressing the concerns of those groups, could be useful in reducing conflict concerning wolf management.     

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

Heat tracing to examine seasonal groundwater flow beneath a low-gradient stream in rural central Illinois,USA

The thermal profile of a streambed is affected by a number of factors including: temperatures of stream water and groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, thermal conductivity, heat capacity of the streambed, and the geometry of hyporheic flow paths. Changes in these parameters over time cause changes in thermal profiles. In this study, temperature data were collected at depths of 30, 60, 90 and 150 cm at six streambed wells 5 m apart along the thalweg of Little Kickapoo Creek, in rural central Illinois, USA. This is a third-order low-gradient baseflow-fed stream. A positive temperature gradient with inflection at 90-cm depth was observed during the summer period. A negative temperature gradient with inflection at 30 cm was observed during the winter period, which suggests greater influence of stream-water temperatures in the substrate during the summer. Thermal models of the streambed were built using VS2DHI to simulate the thermal profiles observed in the field. Comparison of the parameters along with analysis of temperature envelopes and Peclet numbers suggested greater upwelling and stability in temperatures during the winter than during the summer. Upwelling was more pronounced in the downstream reach of the pool in the riffle and pool sequence.     

Delivering pro-poor water and sanitation services: The technical and political challenges in Malawi and Zambia

Meeting Millennium Development Goals on water and sanitation services in developing countries are fraught with difficulties, as can be seen most clearly from the experiences of Malawi and Zambia, two of the world’s poorest countries that have committed to meeting these goals. The challenges are not only technical, requiring programmatic or engineering solutions, but are also and most importantly political, because solutions will most often cause a rearrangement of the peculiar forms of power relations that have emerged within institutional and political environments of the two countries. The challenges include weak state support for water and sanitation provision, unreliable and contested indicators of coverage, poor sectoral co-ordination, and fragmented donor efforts. This field note examines these challenges in greater detail to cast new light as well as draw attention to possible solutions that can be implemented.