Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Comparison of garnet-biotite, calcite-graphite, and calcite-dolomite thermometry in the Grenville Orogen; Ontario, Canada

The Elzevir Terrane of the Grenville Orogen in southern Ontario contains metapelites and abundant graphitic marbles that were regionally metamorphosed from the upper greenschist to upper amphibolite facies. Comparative thermometry was undertaken with widely used calibrations for the systems garnet-biotite, calcite-dolomite, and calcite-graphite. Temperatures that are obtained from matrix biotites paired with prograde garnet near-rim analyses are usually consistent with those determined using calcite-graphite thermometry. However, calcite-graphite thermometry occasionally yields low temperatures due to lack of equilibration of anomalously light graphite. Application of calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite systems may yield temperatures up to 70 °C higher than calcite-dolomite in amphibolite facies rocks. Calcite-dolomite temperatures most closely approach those from calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite when the samples contain a single generation of dolomite and calcite grains contain no visible dolomite exsolution lamellae. However, some of these samples yield temperatures considerably lower than temperatures calculated from calcite-graphite and garnet-biotite thermometry, indicating that the calcite-dolomite thermometer may have been partially reset during retrogression. Estimated peak metamorphic temperatures of regional metamorphism between Madoc (upper greenschist facies) and Bancroft (upper amphibolite facies) range from 500 to 650 °C. These results place the chlorite-staurolite isograd at 540 °C, the kyanite-sillimanite isograd at 590 °C, and the sillimanite-K-feldspar isograd at 650 °C. Although each thermometer may have an absolute uncertainty of as much as ±50 °C, the 50 to 60 °C temperature differences between the isograds are probably accurate to 10 to 20 °C. An incomplete picture of the thermal gradients can result from the application of only one thermometer in a given area. Simultaneous application of several systems allows one to recognize and overcome the inherent limitations of each thermometer. Received: 26 March 1997 / Accepted: 15 April 1998     

Urbanization and sustainable metropolitan development in China: Patterns, problems and prospects*

The path of urbanization in the People's Republic of China is largely shaped by the nation's industrial development strategies. In the first three decades of socialist construction, and especially after the Sino-Soviet rift at the end of the 1950s, the adoption of strategies of self-reliance had led to urban biased patterns of development. The introduction of economic reforms and the open door policy in 1978 paved the way for and facilitated national economic development. Two issues, which feature significantly in the processes of development in China, are assessed. The first is the relationship between economic development and the protection of arable land. The second is the quest for a coordinated hyper-development in both urban and rural areas. This paper concludes by proposing a sustainable metropolitan development strategy that suits the case of China. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The oldest tylosaurine mosasaur (Reptilia; Lacertilia) from the Late Cretaceous of Belgium: Hermann von Meyer (1860) revisited

A mosasaurid parietal from the Late Cretaceous of Belgium, originally described by Von Meyer (1860), turns out to be assignable to the tylosaurine Hainosaurus cf. bernardi Dollo 1885. A small sediment sample, extracted from the bone, was analysed for coccoliths and revealed its early Late Campanian age. This is thus the earliest record of a tylosaurine mosasaur from Belgium.     

Depositional environment of a Kimmeridgian carbonate 'black band' (Akkuyu Formation, south-western Turkey)

The Upper Jurassic Akkuyu Formation of south-western Turkey consists of pale-coloured carbonate facies, but includes a peculiar ‘black band’ at its base. In order to characterize the depositional environment of this level, a sedimentological, organic and inorganic geochemical study was performed on 30 samples. Three units are distinguished. Unit 1 consists of black marlstones, very rich in organic carbon (22–30%) with HI (hydrogen index) values around 600. The organic matter is an amorphous homogeneous material even at nanoscopic scale. This unit is also characterized by a very high concentration of V ( >1000 p.p.m.) and a δ¹³C_org value around ?26·5‰. Unit 2 shows thin-bedded black limestones with chert layers. Its organic content varies from 2% to 6%. As in unit 1, the HI values are uniformly high (600), and gas chromatography shows a high quantity of hopanes. The V concentration is also high (≈400 p.p.m.). The unit has a high Sr/Ca ratio, an organic carbon isotopic ratio close to ?28·7‰ and diffuse, nanoscopically amorphous organic material that is closely associated with pyrite. Unit 3 corresponds to the white limestones overlying the ‘black band’. This calcitic facies is almost devoid of organic carbon (<0·1%). The δ¹³C_org values are similar to those of unit 1 (?25·5‰ to ?26‰). Deposition occurred in a basinal environment surrounded by a carbonate platform. Primary productivity was high but not exceptional; terrestrial organic inputs were scarce. Bottom waters were probably euxinic during the deposition of unit 1. The presence of both hopane-rich and sulphur-rich nanoscopically amorphous organic matter may be the result of strong sulphate-reducing bacterial activity. Coupled with low amounts of iron, this led to intense vulcanization of the organic matter and thus good preservation. With the onset of unit 2 deposition, environmental conditions became less extreme, perhaps because of cooler water temperatures. Finally, the depositional conditions became oxic, leading to the accumulation of pale-coloured organic-poor limestones of unit 3.     

苏南太湖流域地下水过度开采引起的地面沉降及其防治对策

因地下水过量开采而引起的地面沉降是重要的地质灾害和生态环境问题,据最新统计资料,全国96个城市或地区发生了不同程度的地面沉降。苏南太湖流域由于城镇用水和工业用水的迅速增加,大量开采地下水,导致区域内出现了5000km^2的地区地面沉降,有些地区累计沉降量超过2．0m。地面沉降已经影响到区域的供水安全和生态安全,增加了基础设施建设成本,加快区域供水步伐,调整工业结构,加强水资源综合规划和管理是防治地面沉降的重要措施。     

基于植物昼夜释氧变化规律的复合垂直流人工湿地氮形态

为了研究植物根系释氧规律对人工湿地中硝化与反硝化作用的影响,采用传统连续运行方式及根据释氧规律调节的新型运行方式(白天连续进水、夜间停水),在复合垂直流人工湿地小试系统中进行实验,采用代表性的挺水植物香蒲作为湿地植物,水力负荷为0.71 m3/(m2.d).结果表明:系统内白天以好氧的硝化作用为主,夜间以厌氧、缺氧的反硝化作用为主,且在新型运行方式下,系统内白天亚硝酸盐氮累积量为传统运行方式的5倍,硝酸盐氮累积量为其2倍,夜间亚硝酸盐氮和硝酸盐氮减少量又分别比传统运行方式高64%和26%.这说明在新型运行方式下,人工湿地脱氮效果优于传统运行方式.     

A new methodology for energy-based seismic design of steel moment frames

A procedure is proposed whereby input and hysteretic energy spectra developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems are applied to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) steel moment resisting frames. The proposed procedure is verified using four frames, viz., frame with three-, five-, seven- and nine-stories, each of which is subjected to the fault-normal and fault-parallel components of three actual earthquakes. A very good estimate for the three- and five-story frames, and a reasonably acceptable estimate for the seven-, and nine-story frames, have been obtained. A method for distributing the hysteretic energy over the frame height is also proposed. This distribution scheme allows for the determination of the energy demand component of a proposed energy-based seismic design (EBSD) procedure for each story. To address the capacity component of EBSD, a story-wise optimization design procedure is developed by utilizing the energy dissipating capacity from plastic hinge formation/rotation for these moment frames. The proposed EBSD procedure is demonstrated in the design of a three-story one-bay steel moment frame.     

Examining the Use of USEPA's Generic Attenuation Factor in Determining Groundwater Screening Levels for Vapor Intrusion

A value of 0.001 is recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for its groundwater‐to‐indoor air Generic Attenuation Factor (GAFG), used in assessing potential vapor intrusion (VI) impacts to indoor air, given measured groundwater concentrations of volatile chemicals of concern (e.g., chlorinated solvents). The GAFG can, in turn, be used for developing groundwater screening levels for VI given target indoor air quality screening levels. In this study, we examine the validity and applicability of the GAFG both for predicting indoor air impacts and for determining groundwater screening levels. This is done using both analysis of published data and screening model calculations. Among the 774 total paired groundwater‐indoor air measurements in the USEPA's VI database (which were used by that agency to generate the GAFG) we found that there are 427 pairs for which a single groundwater measurement or interpolated value was applied to multiple buildings. In one case, up to 73 buildings were associated with a single interpolated groundwater value and in another case up to 15 buildings were associated with a single groundwater measurement (i.e., that the indoor air contaminant concentrations in all of the associated buildings were influenced by the concentration determined at a single point). In more than 70% of the cases (390 of 536 paired measurements in which horizontal building‐monitoring well distance was recorded) the monitoring wells were located more than 30 m (and one up to over 200 m) from the associated buildings. In a few cases, the measurements in the database even improbably implied that soil gas contaminant concentrations increased, rather than decreased, in an upward direction from a contaminant source to a foundation slab. Such observations indicate problematic source characterization within the data set used to generate the GAFG, and some indicate the possibility of a significant influence of a preferential contaminant pathway. While the inherent value of the USEPA database itself is not being questioned here, the above facts raise the very real possibility that the recommended groundwater attenuation factors are being influenced by variables or conditions that have not thus far been fully accounted for. In addition, the predicted groundwater attenuation factors often fall far beyond the upper limits of predictions from mathematical models of VI, ranging from screening models to detailed computational fluid dynamic models. All these models are based on the same fundamental conceptual site model, involving a vadose zone vapor transport pathway starting at an underlying uniform groundwater source and leading to the foundation of a building of concern. According to the analysis presented here, we believe that for scenarios for which such a “traditional” VI pathway is appropriate, 10^?4 is a more appropriately conservative generic groundwater to indoor air attenuation factor than is the EPA‐recommended 10^?3. This is based both on the statistical analysis of USEPA's VI database, as well as the traditional mathematical models of VI. This result has been validated by comparison with results from some well‐documented field studies.     

Intentional contamination of water distribution networks: developing indicators for sensitivity and vulnerability assessments

Performing a comprehensive risk analysis is primordial to ensure a reliable and sustainable water supply. Though the general framework of risk analysis is well established, specific adaptation seems needed for systems such as water distribution networks (WDN). Understanding of vulnerabilities of WDN against deliberate contamination and consumers’ sensitivity against contaminated water use is very vital to inform decision-maker. This paper presents an innovative step-by-step methodology for developing comprehensive indicators to perform sensitivity, vulnerability and criticality analyses in case of absence of early warning system (EWS). The assessment and the aggregation of these indicators with specific fuzzy operators allow identifying the most critical points in a WDN. Intentional intrusion of contaminants at these points can potentially harm both the consumers as well as water infrastructure. The implementation of the developed methodology has been demonstrated through a case study of a French WDN unequipped with sensors.