Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

Heat tracing to examine seasonal groundwater flow beneath a low-gradient stream in rural central Illinois,USA

The thermal profile of a streambed is affected by a number of factors including: temperatures of stream water and groundwater, hydraulic conductivity, thermal conductivity, heat capacity of the streambed, and the geometry of hyporheic flow paths. Changes in these parameters over time cause changes in thermal profiles. In this study, temperature data were collected at depths of 30, 60, 90 and 150 cm at six streambed wells 5 m apart along the thalweg of Little Kickapoo Creek, in rural central Illinois, USA. This is a third-order low-gradient baseflow-fed stream. A positive temperature gradient with inflection at 90-cm depth was observed during the summer period. A negative temperature gradient with inflection at 30 cm was observed during the winter period, which suggests greater influence of stream-water temperatures in the substrate during the summer. Thermal models of the streambed were built using VS2DHI to simulate the thermal profiles observed in the field. Comparison of the parameters along with analysis of temperature envelopes and Peclet numbers suggested greater upwelling and stability in temperatures during the winter than during the summer. Upwelling was more pronounced in the downstream reach of the pool in the riffle and pool sequence.     

Delivering pro-poor water and sanitation services: The technical and political challenges in Malawi and Zambia

Meeting Millennium Development Goals on water and sanitation services in developing countries are fraught with difficulties, as can be seen most clearly from the experiences of Malawi and Zambia, two of the world’s poorest countries that have committed to meeting these goals. The challenges are not only technical, requiring programmatic or engineering solutions, but are also and most importantly political, because solutions will most often cause a rearrangement of the peculiar forms of power relations that have emerged within institutional and political environments of the two countries. The challenges include weak state support for water and sanitation provision, unreliable and contested indicators of coverage, poor sectoral co-ordination, and fragmented donor efforts. This field note examines these challenges in greater detail to cast new light as well as draw attention to possible solutions that can be implemented.     

Mn-oxides and sequestration of heavy metals in a suburban catchment basin of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The Chesapeake Bay is greatly impacted by numerous pollutants including heavy metals and understanding the controls on the distribution of heavy metals in the watershed is critical to mitigation and remediation efforts in controlling this type of pollution. Clasts from a stormwater catchment basin draining a subdivision near George Mason University, Fairfax VA (38°50.090°N 78°19.204°W) were investigated using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning electron microcopy (SEM) and energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) to determine the nature of Mn-oxide coatings and relationship to bound heavy metals. Mn-oxides are poorly crystalline and occur as subhedral to anhedral platy particles and more rarely as euhedral plates. Micronodules are a commonly observed texture. Chemical compositions of coatings are variable with average major constituent concentrations being Mn (33.38 wt%), Fe (11.88 wt%), Si (7.33 wt%), Al (5.03 wt%), and Ba (0.90 wt%). Heavy metals are found in the coatings with Zn being most prevalent, occurring in approximately 58% of analyses with an average concentration of (0.66 wt%). Minor amounts of Co, Ni, Pb, and Cl are observed. Heavy metals and Cl are interpreted as being derived from road pollution. Mn-oxides can serve as a sequestration mechanism for pollution but may also release heavy metals. Field and laboratory observations indicate Mn-oxides occurring on the surface of the clasts can be mechanically mobilized. This is a mechanism for transporting heavy metals into the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Deicing agents may serve as a mechanism to release heavy metals through cation exchange and increased ionic strength. This is the first detailed mineralogical investigation of Mn-oxides and the roles they may play in pollution in the Chesapeake Bay.     

Electricity consumption patterns within cities: application of a data-driven settlement characterization method

ABSTRACT

Urban areas presently consume around 75% of global primary energy supply, which is expected to significantly increase in the future due to urban growth. Having sustainable, universal energy access is a pressing challenge for most parts of the globe. Understanding urban energy consumption patterns may help to address the challenges to urban sustainability and energy security. However, urban energy analyses are severely limited by the lack of urban energy data. Such datasets are virtually non-existent for the developing countries. As per current projections, most of the new urban growth is bound to occur in these data-starved regions. Hence, there is an urgent need of research methods for monitoring and quantifying urban energy utilization patterns. Here, we apply a data-driven approach to characterize urban settlements based on their formality, which is then used to assess intra-urban urban energy consumption in Johannesburg, South Africa; Sana’a, Yemen; and Ndola, Zambia. Electricity is the fastest growing energy fuel. By analyzing the relationship between the settlement types and the corresponding nighttime light emission, a proxy of electricity consumption, we assess the differential electricity consumption patterns. Our study presents a simple and scalable solution to fill the present data void to understand intra-city electricity consumption patterns.     

Production of carbonate and silica nano-particles in stirred bead milling

This paper presents the experimental results of the mechanical production of silica and carbonate colloidal particles below 100 nm using two types of stirred bead mills (i.e., DCP Superflow 12 and PML H/V). It is shown that the stirred bead mill with very small beads can be used as an efficient equipment for the production of the colloidal particles in nanoscale from the feed materials of several microns in sizes at high energy consumptions. The DCP Superflow mill with high power densities is superior for the effective size reduction and production rate, compared to the conventional PML H/V mill with lower power densities. The smaller particles could be produced by the DCP Superflow mill at the same level of high energy inputs as from the PML H/V mill. The “grinding limit” for the processes in the mills has been discussed.     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

Origins and evolution of rhyolitic magmas in the central Snake River Plain: insights from coupled high-precision geochronology,oxygen isotope,and hafnium isotope analyses of zircon

We present new high-precision CA-ID-TIMS and in situ U–Pb ages together with Hf and O isotopic analyses (analyses performed all on the same grains) from four tuffs from the 15?10 Ma Bruneau–Jarbidge center of the Snake River Plain and from three rhyolitic units from the Kimberly borehole in the neighboring 10?6 Ma Twin Falls volcanic center. We find significant intrasample diversity in zircon ages (ranges of up to 3 Myr) and in δ¹⁸O (ranges of up to 6‰) and ε_Hf (ranges of up to 24 ε units) values. Zircon rims are also more homogeneous than the associated cores, and we show that zircon rim growth occurs faster than the resolution of in situ dating techniques. CA-ID-TIMS dating of a subset of zircon grains from the Twin Falls samples reveals complex crystallization histories spanning 10⁴–10⁶ years prior to some eruptions, suggesting that magma genesis was characterized by the cyclic remelting of buried volcanic rocks and intrusions associated with previous magmatic episodes. Age-dependent trends in zircon isotopic compositions show that rhyolite production in the Yellowstone hotspot track is driven by the mixing of mantle-derived melts (normal δ¹⁸O and ε_Hf) and a combination of Precambrian basement rock (normal δ¹⁸O and ε_Hf down to ??60) and shallow Mesozoic and Cenozoic age rocks, some of which are hydrothermally altered (to low δ¹⁸O values) by earlier stages of Snake River Plain magmatism. These crustal melts hybridize with juvenile basalts and rhyolites to produce the erupted rhyolites. We also observe that the Precambrian basement rock is only an important component in the erupted magmas in the first eruption at each caldera center, suggesting that the accumulation of new intrusions quickly builds an upper crustal intrusive body which is isolated from the Precambrian basement and evolves towards more isotopically juvenile and lower-δ¹⁸O compositions over time.