Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

A Leaky-Conduit Model of Transient Flow in Karstic Aquifers

Karst Flow Model (KFM) simulates transient flow in an unconfined karstic aquifer having a well-developed conduit system. KFM treats the springshed as a two-dimensional porous matrix containing a triangulated irregular network of leaky conduits. The number and location of conduits can be specified arbitrarily, perhaps using field information as a guide, or generated automatically. Conduit networks can be tree-like or braided. Rainwater that has infiltrated down from the surface leaks into the conduits from the adjacent porous matrix at a rate dictated by Darcy’s law, then flows turbulently to the spring via the conduits. KFM is calibrated using the known steady state; geometry and recharge determine the steady fluxes in the conduits, and the head distribution determines conduit gradients and sizes. Spring flow can vary with time due to spatially and temporally variable recharge and due to prescribed variations in the elevation of the spring. KFM is illustrated by four examples run on a test aquifer consisting of 27 nodes, 42 elements, and 26 conduits. Three examples (drought, uniform rainstorm, storm-water input to one element) are simulations, while the fourth uses data from a spring-basin flooding event. The qualitative fit between the predicted and observed spring discharge in the fourth example provides support of the hypothesis that the dynamic behavior of a karst conduit system is an emergent property of a self-organized system, largely independent of the locations and properties of individual conduits.     

Magmatic-to-hydrothermal crystallization in the W–Sn mineralized Mole Granite (NSW, Australia): Part I: Crystallization of zircon and REE-phosphates over three million years—a geochemical and U–Pb geochronological study

Zircon, monazite and xenotime crystallized over a temperature interval of several hundred degrees at the magmatic to hydrothermal transition of the Sn and W mineralized Mole Granite. Magmatic zircon and monazite, thought to have crystallized from hydrous silicate melt, were dated by conventional U–Pb techniques at an age of 247.6 ± 0.4 and 247.7 ± 0.5 Ma, respectively. Xenotime occurring in hydrothermal quartz is found to be significantly younger at 246.2 ± 0.5 Ma and is interpreted to represent hydrothermal growth. From associated fluid inclusions it is concluded that it precipitated from a hydrothermal brine ≤ 600 °C, which is below the accepted closure temperature for U–Pb in this mineral. These data are compatible with a two-stage crystallization process: precipitation of zircon and monazite as magmatic liquidus phases in deep crustal magma followed by complete crystallization and intimately associated Sn–W mineralization after intrusion of the shallow, sill-like body of the Mole Granite. Later hydrothermal formation of monazite in a biotite–fluorite–topaz reaction rim around a mineralized vein was dated at 244.4 ± 1.4 Ma, which distinctly postdates the Mole Granite and is possibly related to a younger hidden intrusion and its hydrothermal fluid system.

Obtaining precise age data for magmatic and hydrothermal minerals of the Mole Granite is hampered by uncertainties introduced by different corrections required for multiple highly radiogenic minerals crystallising from evolved hydrous granites, including ²³⁰Th disequilibrium due to Th/U fractionation during monazite and possibly xenotime crystallization, variable Th/U ratios of the fluids from which xenotime was precipitating, elevated contents of common lead, and post-crystallization lead loss in zircon, enhanced by the fluid-saturated environment. The data imply that monazite can also survive as a liquidus phase in protracted magmatic systems over periods of 10⁶ years. The outlined model is in agreement with prominent chemical core-rim variation of the zircon.     

Nutrient Inputs, Phytoplankton Response, and CO2 Variations in a Semi-Enclosed Subtropical Embayment, Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii

The marine shelf areas in subtropical and tropical regions represent only 35% of the total shelf areas globally, but receive a disproportionately large amount of water (65%) and sediment (58%) discharges that enter such environments. Small rivers and/or streams that drain the mountainous areas in these climatic zones deliver the majority of the sediment and nutrient inputs to these narrow shelf environments; such inputs often occur as discrete, episodic introductions associated with storm events. To gain insight into the linked biogeochemical behavior of subtropical/tropical mountainous watershed-coastal ocean ecosystems, this work describes the use of a buoy system to monitor autonomously water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and physical forcing associated with local storm events in the coastal ocean of southern Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay. Storm events cause most of the fluvial nutrient, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon inputs to Kaneohe Bay. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to values of 48 and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of such nutrient subsidies by phytoplankton causes rapid declines of N levels, return to N-limited conditions, and subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over timescales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. The enhanced productivity may promote the drawing down of pCO₂ and lowering of surface water column carbonate saturation states, and in some events, a temporary shift from N to P limitation. The productivity-driven CO₂ drawdown may temporarily lead to air-to-sea transfer of atmospheric CO₂ in a system that is on an annual basis a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere due to calcification and perhaps heterotrophy. Storms may also strongly affect proximal coastal zone pCO₂ and hence carbonate saturation state due to river runoff flushing out high pCO₂ soil and ground waters. Mixing of the CO₂-charged water with seawater causes a salting out effect that releases CO₂ to the atmosphere. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific region are similar to Kaneohe Bay, and our work provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO₂ dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air?Csea CO₂ exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, proximal and distal. It cannot be overemphasized that this research illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing that are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Finally, the work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the biogeochemical and physical responses of coastal subtropical/tropical coral reef ecosystems to climatic perturbations.     

Modeling in paleoceanography

The two last decades of research in paleoceanography are characterized by extensive data collection and by the development of numerous hypotheses based on these data. Both the nature of the thermohaline circulation and the nature of the surface circulation during past times are currently being debated. Physical models of the ocean circulation are beginning to play an important role in these debates. The models range from highly simplified mathematical representations intended to illustrate physical principles to three-dimensional time-dependent global models intended to simulate temperature, salinity and flow fields. At the very least such models can be applied to explore the limitations or appropriateness of various assumptions in paleoceanography. At the very best, paleoceanographic data may be used as a verification of simulations of past oceans.     

Trace element zoning in pyroxenes from ODP Hole 735B gabbros: diffusive exchange or synkinematic crystal fractionation?

Major and trace element profiles of clinopyroxene grains in oceanic gabbros from ODP Hole 735B have been investigated by a combined in situ analytical study with ion probe, and electron microprobe. In contrast to the homogeneous major element compositions, trace elements (REE, Y, Cr, Sr, and Zr) show continuous core to rim zoning profiles. The observed trace element systematics in clinopyroxene cannot be explained by a simple diffusive exchange between melts and gabbros along grain boundaries. A simultaneous modification of the melt composition is required to generate the zoning, although Rayleigh fractional crystallization modelling could mimic the general shape of the profiles. Simultaneous metasomatism between the cumulate crystal and the porous melt during crystal accumulation is the most likely process to explain the zoning. Deformation during solidification of the crystal mush could have caused squeezing out of the incompatible element enriched residual melts (interstitial liquid). Migration of the melt along grain boundaries might carry these melt out of the system. This process named as synkinematic differentiation or differentiation by deformation (Natland and Dick in J Volcanol Geotherm Res 110(3–4):191–233, 2001) may act as an important magma evolution mechanism in the oceanic crust, at least at slow-spreading ridges.     

Differential modulation of eastern oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.     

The oldest tylosaurine mosasaur (Reptilia; Lacertilia) from the Late Cretaceous of Belgium: Hermann von Meyer (1860) revisited

A mosasaurid parietal from the Late Cretaceous of Belgium, originally described by Von Meyer (1860), turns out to be assignable to the tylosaurine Hainosaurus cf. bernardi Dollo 1885. A small sediment sample, extracted from the bone, was analysed for coccoliths and revealed its early Late Campanian age. This is thus the earliest record of a tylosaurine mosasaur from Belgium.