Istanbul natural gas network rapid response and risk mitigation system

This paper describes a rapid response and risk mitigation system Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Seismic Risk Reduction Project (IGRAS) for the Istanbul Natural Gas Network (IGDA?). Upon the trigger signal received from the earthquake early warning system in Istanbul, the real-time algorithm at IGRAS system district regulators checks the threshold levels of ground-motion parameters and interrupts the gas flow if any exceedance is detected. Then the system: (1) produces almost real-time earthquake hazard maps by using on-line strong-motion data from the strong-motion network in Istanbul: (2) estimates the distribution of damage to the natural gas network; and (3) transfers these damage distribution maps to stakeholders to enable dispatching rapid response teams to high damage areas.     

Hale Cyclicity of Solar Activity and Its Relation to Climate Variability

The periodicity of climatic processes along the Russian Arctic Ocean coast has been studied by analyzing the tree-ring chronologies for the regions close to the northern timberline. The wavelet analysis of annual series of conifer tree rings for the period 1458–1975 has revealed climatic oscillations with periods of 20–25 years. The amplitudes and periods of climatic oscillations in the region of Russian Arctic Ocean proved to exhibit appreciable changes. Especially strong climatic variations in comparison with the recent ones were found to occur during the Maunder minimum epoch when the period of oscillations increased from 22–23 years to 24–29 years, and oscillations with periods of 15 years appeared. After the Maunder minimum, the periods of oscillations and their amplitudes again decreased, and the 15–16-year maximum disappeared. Analysis of solar activity based on of radiocarbon (¹⁴C) concentration in annual tree rings has revealed a similar pattern in changes of periodicity before, during, and after the Maunder minimum. This suggests that quasi-bidecadal climatic oscillations and variations in solar activity can be connected with each other. A possible solar forcing of periodic climatic processes and its nonlinear influence on the atmosphere-ocean-continental system are discussed. The intense quasi-bidecadal climatic oscillations can be, in all probability, interpreted as resulting from amplification of a weak solar signal in the atmosphere-ocean system that has its own noises whose frequencies are close to the 22–23-year solar cycles.     

Understanding Extragalactic Hydroxyl

Hydroxyl (OH) is one of the few molecules in space showing both maser emission and absorption. In the Milky Way, hydroxyl has been found in various environments such as stellar envelopes, star-forming regions, and HII regions, tracing the physical states of the interstellar medium. Extragalactic OH has been found to provide essential information about the dusty and obscuring material within the inner kiloparsec region of active galaxies. At angular resolution of a few tens of parsecs, OH shows a rather complicated spatial distribution and the interpretation of the circumnuclear environment is rather difficult. Based on results obtained from low- and high-resolution observations, the diagnostic tools of OH will be reviewed and the strategies to further investigate extragalactic OH will be discussed.     

Active tectonic and palaeoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa,NW Anatolia

The Mustafakemalpa?a Fault (MF), located among Manyas, Ulubat and Orhaneli faults, is a right lateral strike-slip and 47 km in length. The MF begins with a pressure ridge at the west and exhibits complex jog terminations at east ends in restraining left stepovers. The western section of the fault bounds Miocene and Quaternary units and continues towards ?lyasç?lar. The central segment of the fault, starts with approximately 750-m leftward stepover, exhibits a sinusoidal geometry between Kapakl?oluk and Kabulbaba. In this section, MF traverses mountainous terrain and cuts Ophiolite, Jurassic limestones and Miocene detritals, forming dextral faulting features and gaining reverse component. The eastern section exhibits left stepping en-echelon pattern and consists 2.5-km offset on the Orhaneli River. In this study, palaeoseismological findings related to the Holocene activity and active tectonic properties of the MF are presented. The trenches exposed mismatched stratigraphy, demonstrating evidence of events across the fault. We identified three events (before BC 2190, later AD 1425 and 1850) that have occurred during the past 4000 years. We suggest a long non-characteristic recurrence interval and ~0.7 mm/y slip-rate for MF, based on trench data and offset of the Late Pliocene drainage of Orhaneli River.     

Relative tectonic activity assessment of the Çameli Basin,Western Anatolia,using geomorphic indices

Western Anatolia is one of the world’s most seismically active regions. A nearly N–S-oriented extension caused the formation of E–W- and NE–SW-trending major grabens, creating the potential for earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5. The fault segments of the NE-trending Çameli Basin were evaluated using geomorphic indices, common tools for assessment of relative tectonic activity in such areas. Quantitative measurement of geomorphic indices including mountain-front sinuosity (Smf; 1.35–2.39), valley floor width-to-height ratios (Vf; 0.08?0.37), and hypsometric integral (HI; 0.31–1.05) suggest relatively higher tectonic activity along western and southern part of the basin. Hypsometric curves for all segments of the faults mostly exhibit concave or straight profiles, signifying existence of young mountain fronts in the Çameli Basin. These calculations indicate that the Çameli Basin is tectonically active and, southern/south-western areas of this depression have earthquake potential, consistent with epicentres of recent earthquakes, occurred along some fault segments. Possible reason of this activity seems to be related to the E–W-trending corridor lying between the Gulf of Gökova and south-eastern part of the Çameli Basin, represented by active normal faults. These findings should be valid beyond the Çameli Basin for similar situations along the Isparta Angle’s western margin.     

Seismic performance of a high-rise building by using linear and nonlinear methods

Natural Hazards - In this paper, the seismic behavior of the existing reinforced concrete tall building is investigated by using the linear and nonlinear dynamic methods. The selected existing...     

Disentangling intangible social–ecological systems

Contemporary environmental challenges call for new research approaches that include the human dimension when studying the natural environment. In spite of the recent development of several conceptual frameworks integrating human society with nature, there has been less methodological and theoretical progress on how to quantitatively study such social–ecological interdependencies. We propose a novel theoretical framework for addressing this gap that partly builds on the rapidly growing interdisciplinary research on complex networks. The framework makes it possible to unpack, define and formalize ways in which societies and nature are interdependent, and to empirically link this to specific governance challenges and opportunities using a range of theories from both the social and natural sciences in an integrated way. At the core of the framework is a set of basic building blocks (motifs) that each represents a simplified but non-trivial social–ecological systems (SES) consisting of two social actors and two ecological resources. The set represents all possible patterns of interdependency in a SES. Each unique motif is characterized in terms of social and ecological connectivity, resource sharing, and resource substitutability. By aligning theoretical insights related to the management of common-pool resources, metapopulation dynamics, and the problem of fit in SES with the set of motifs, we demonstrate the multi-theoretical ability of the framework in a case study of a rural agricultural landscape in southern Madagascar. Several mechanisms explaining the inhabitants’ demonstrated ability to preserve their scattered forest patches in spite of strong pressures on land and forest resources are presented.     

Block bootstrap for Mann–Kendall trend test of serially dependent data

Mann–Kendall (MK) test for trend detection must be modified when the data are serially correlated, to prevent the detection of false trends. Various approaches are developed for this purpose, such as prewhitening, trend‐free prewhitening, variance correction and block bootstrap. Each method has its own Type I and Type II errors. In this study, the errors of block bootstrapping MK test are estimated by a simulation study and compared with other methods. Optimal block length that minimizes the Type I error is determined as function of sample size and autocorrelation coefficient. It is shown that the power of block bootstrapping MK test is comparable with those of other modified MK tests. These tests are applied to some annual streamflow series with trend recorded in Turkish rivers, and their powers are compared. A modified form of the trend‐free prewhitening procedure is proposed that has a smaller Type I error. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.