A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano

A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.     

On the spatio-temporal distribution of M 7.0+ worldwide seismicity with a non-parametric statistics

The aim of this paper is to provide some constrains on the time behavior of earthquake generation mechanism, through the usage of a non-parametric statistics that leads up to the empirical estimation of the hazard function. The results indicate that the most characterizing temporal feature for large (M 7.0+) worldwide shallow earthquake occurrence is a clustering lasting few years, indicating that the probability of earthquake occurrence is higher immediately after the occurrence of an event. After that, the process becomes almost time independent, as in a Poisson process. Remarkably, this time clustering is very similar to what previously found for different spatio-magnitude windows, and it does not seem to depend on the tectonic style of the region. This may support the hypothesis of an universal law for earthquake occurrence.     

Detecting short-term evolution of Etnean scoria cones: a LIDAR-based approach

The 2001 and 2002–2003 flank eruptions on Mount Etna (Italy) were characterized by intense explosive activity which led to the formation of two large monogenetic scoria cones (one from each eruption) on the upper southern flank of the volcano. Continuous monitoring of Etna, especially during flank eruptions, has provided detailed information on the growth of these cones. They differ in genesis, shape, and size. A set of high resolution (1 m) digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data collected during four different surveys (2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007) has been used to map morphology and to extract the morphometric parameters of the scoria cones. By comparing LIDAR-derived DEMs with a pre-eruption (1998) 10 m DEM, the volume of the two scoria cones was calculated for the first time. Comparison of the LIDAR-derived DEMs revealed in unprecedented detail morphological changes during scoria cone degradation. In particular, the morphologically more exposed and structurally weaker 2002–2003 cone was eroded rapidly during the first few years after its emplacement mainly due to gravitational instability of slopes and wind erosion.     

Cyclic shear-compression tests on masonry walls strengthened with alternative configurations of CFRP strips

This work reports the results of an experimental programme aimed at investigating the in-plane behaviour of clay-brick masonry walls externally strengthened by carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. Particularly, four different geometrical layouts were considered for the CFRP strips, though keeping unchanged the quantity of composites employed in each wall. Firstly, a preliminary experimental work was carried out on samples of the constitutive materials for quantifying their key mechanical properties and evaluating the bond behaviour of FRP strips on the masonry substrates. Then, eleven cyclic shear-compression tests were performed to observe the response of strengthened walls and the influence of the strengthening layouts under investigation. The proposed experimental report is intended as a contribution to the current state of knowledge about the behaviour of FRP-strengthened masonry walls: it is available to assess the accuracy and possibly improve the predictive capacity of design-oriented capacity models. Finally, the comparison of the reported experimental results with the predictions obtained by applying the analytical relationships proposed by a recently issued guideline for FRP strengthening of masonry structures is proposed.