The 2002 eruption of Nyiragongo volcano constitutes the most outstanding case ever of lava flow in a big town. It also represents
one of the very rare cases of direct casualties from lava flows, which had high velocities of up to tens of kilometer per
hour. As in the 1977 eruption, which is the only other eccentric eruption of the volcano in more than 100 years, lava flows
were emitted from several vents along a N–S system of fractures extending for more than 10 km, from which they propagated
mostly towards Lake Kivu and Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants. We assessed the lava flow hazard on the entire volcano
and in the towns of Goma (D.R.C.) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) through numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths. Lava flow
paths are computed based on the steepest descent principle, modified by stochastically perturbing the topography to take into
account the capability of lava flows to override topographic obstacles, fill topographic depressions, and spread over the
topography. Code calibration and the definition of the expected lava flow length and vent opening probability distributions
were done based on the 1977 and 2002 eruptions. The final lava flow hazard map shows that the eastern sector of Goma devastated
in 2002 represents the area of highest hazard on the flanks of the volcano. The second highest hazard sector in Goma is the
area of propagation of the western lava flow in 2002. The town of Gisenyi is subject to moderate to high hazard due to its
proximity to the alignment of fractures active in 1977 and 2002. In a companion paper (Chirico et al., Bull Volcanol, in this issue, 2008) we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of reducing lava flow hazard through the construction of protective
barriers, and formulate a proposal for the future development of the town of Goma. 相似文献
The goal of this study is to estimate the efficiency of dewatering operations in Alassio Beach, north Italy by following an integrated approach which included beach volume calculations, daily mapping of the shoreline position, examination of specific beach widening events and daily comparisons of morphodynamic characteristics of the drained beach versus a control section which included wave run-up, bar patterns, rip migration, evolution of the berm and cusp morphology. 相似文献
Summary. Most crustal earthquakes of the world are observed to occur within a seismogenic layer which extends from the Earth's surface to a depth of a few tens of kilometres at most. A model is proposed in which the shear zone along a transcurrent plate margin is represented as a viscoelastic medium with depth-dependent power-law rheology. A frictional resistance linearly increasing with depth is assumed on a vertical transcurrent fault within the shear zone. Such a model is able to reproduce a continuous transition from the brittle behaviour of the upper crust to the ductile behaviour at depth. Assuming that the shear zone is subjected to a constant strain rate from the opposite motions of the two adjacent plates, it is found that there exists a maximum depth H below which tectonic stress can never reach the frictional threshold: this may be identified as the maximum depth of earthquake nucleation. The value of H is consistent with observations for plausible values of the model parameters. The stress evolution in the shear zone is calculated in the linear approximation of the constitutive equation. A change in rigidity with depth, which is also introduced in the model, may reproduce the high vertical gradient of shear stress, which has been measured across the San Andreas fault, and the fact that most earthquakes are nucleated at some depth in the seismogenic layer. A crack which drops the ambient stress to the dynamic frictional level is then introduced in the model. To this aim, a crack solution is employed without a stress singularity at its edges, which is compatible with a frictional stress threshold criterion for fracture. A constraint on the vertical friction gradient is obtained if such cracks are assumed to be entirely confined within the seismogenic layer. 相似文献
We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
Microscopic distribution and speciation of Na, Mg, Ni and Cs in a simulated (inactive) nuclear waste glass were studied using micro X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) and micro X-ray absorption spectroscopy (μ-XAS), after aqueous leaching during 12 years at 90 °C. Na and Mg are major constituents of the glass that can be used to determine the progress of the glass corrosion process and the nature of secondary alteration phases. Ni and Cs represent dose determining long-lived radionuclides (59Ni, 135Cs) in vitrified nuclear waste.The Na-Mg μ-XRF maps revealed that the core regions of the glass fragments are apparently unaltered and compositionally homogeneous, whereas rims and interstitial spaces are enriched with Mg-rich smectite formed during the leaching process. The micro X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) spectra collected at the Mg K-edge in the altered zones show three sharp resonances typical for crystalline Mg-silicates. These resonances are distinctive of Mg occupying undistorted octahedral positions. In contrast, the μ-XANES spectra collected in the core zones of the glass fragments lack this resonance pattern and are identical to the spectra measured on the pristine (unleached) MW glass.Micro extended X-ray absorption fine structure (μ-EXAFS) and μ-XANES analyses at the Ni K-edge revealed three distinct Ni(II) species: (a) Ni uniformly distributed in the glass matrix, (b) micro-inclusions with high Ni concentrations and (c) Ni associated to the Mg-clay. The comparison with reference spectra of unleached MW and other Ni-bearing silicate glasses indicated that species (a) represents the original coordinative environment of Ni in the glass. The μ-EXAFS analyses revealed that species (b) is structural Ni in trevorite (NiFe2O4), which probably formed through unmixing processes during the cooling of the glass melt. The μ-EXAFS of species (c) could be successfully modeled assuming specific adsorption or incorporation of Ni into the lattice of trioctahedral Mg-clay minerals. Alternative models assuming other elements (Ni, Al, Fe) in addition to Mg in the second shell could not be fitted successfully.Aqueous concentration data were used to calculate the speciation of the leaching solutions. Saturation index (SI) calculations indicate undersaturation with respect to NiCO3 and NiSO4·7H2O, but oversaturation with respect to β-Ni(OH)2. The latter result is probably due to the omission of Ni borate and Ni silicate complexes in the speciation calculations, for which formation constants are not available. With the help of estimation techniques, we could infer that such complexes would dominate the Ni speciation and consequently reduce the SI below the saturation of β-Ni(OH)2.The μ-XRF maps show that Cs is uniformly distributed in the MW glass, since no region with high Cs concentration could be detected. The Cs LIII-edge μ-XAS spectra were all very similar independently of the degree of alteration, indicating similar coordination environments of Cs in the core regions of the glass as well as in the secondary clays. These spectra largely differ from that measured for pollucite (a potential secondary Cs-phase in altered glasses) implying that the coordination environments of Cs in the MW glass and in pollucite are fundamentally different.The present study shows that μ-XRF and μ-XAS are essential tools in determining the fate and the retention mechanisms of radionuclides released from nuclear waste during aqueous alteration. Our spectroscopic analyses allowed us to exclude formation of specific Ni and Cs secondary solids (e.g. nepouite, β-Ni(OH)2, pollucite) during the aqueous alteration. Ni and Cs are instead distributed as trace elements in the alteration phases formed by major elements during the leaching process. Our results imply that solid solution and/or adsorption equilibria, rather than pure phase solubility equilibria, are the adequate chemical models to determine Ni and Cs aqueous concentrations in performance assessments for radioactive waste repositories. 相似文献
Females of Donax trunculus L. show higher concentrations of Mn and Zn than males. Differences are very high for Mn which also shows very large monthly fluctuations. Both the metals present higher contents during the period of gonadic maturation. Some high values of manganese found in the period when gonads are resting suggest the influence of sharp environmental variations in the area where bivalves have been collected. 相似文献