Earthquake detection probability within a seismically quiet area: application to the Bruchsal geothermal field

In applications such as oil and gas production, deep geothermal energy production, underground storage, and mining, it is common practice to implement local seismic networks to monitor and to mitigate induced seismicity. For this purpose, it is crucial to determine the capability of the network to detect a seismic event of predefined magnitude in the target area. The determination of the magnitude of completeness of a network is particularly required to properly interpret seismic monitoring results. We propose a method to compute the detection probability for existing local seismic networks, which (i) strictly follows the applied detection sequence; (ii) estimates the detection capability where seismicity has not yet occurred; and (iii) delivers the results in terms of probabilities. The procedure includes a calibration of a local magnitude scale using regional earthquakes recorded by the network and located outside the monitored area. It involves pre‐processing of the seismograms recorded at each station as performed during the triggering sequence, which is assumed based on amplitude thresholds. Then, the calibrated magnitude–distance–amplitude relations are extrapolated at short distances and combined to reproduce the network detection sequence. This generates a probability to detect a seismic event of a given magnitude at a specified location. This observation‐based approach is an alternative to a fully theoretical detection capability modelling and includes field conditions. Seismic wave attenuation by geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation, site effect, and instrumental responses are partly accounted for by the calibration. We apply this procedure on the seismic network deployed in the Bruchsal geothermal field (Germany). Although the system was in good working order, no induced seismicity was identified in the area between June 2010, when monitoring started, and November 2012. The recording of distant seismicity during this time period, however, allowed the application of the proposed procedure. According to the applied network detection parameters, the results indicate that the absence of seismicity can be interpreted as a 95% probability that no seismic event with M_L ≥ 0.7 occurred below the network at 2.4‐km depth, i.e., in the geothermal reservoir.     

Water‐bottom multiple attenuation by Kirchhoff extrapolation

Despite being less general than 3D surface‐related multiple elimination (3D‐SRME), multiple prediction based on wavefield extrapolation can still be of interest, because it is less CPU and I/O demanding than 3D‐SRME and moreover it does not require any prior data regularization. Here we propose a fast implementation of water‐bottom multiple prediction that uses the Kirchhoff formulation of wavefield extrapolation. With wavefield extrapolation multiple prediction is usually obtained through the cascade of two extrapolation steps. Actually by applying the Fermat’s principle (i.e., minimum reflection traveltime) we show that the cascade of two operators can be replaced by a single approximated extrapolation step. The approximation holds as long as the water bottom is not too complex. Indeed the proposed approach has proved to work well on synthetic and field data when the water bottom is such that wavefront triplications are negligible, as happens in many practical situations.     

东昆仑活动断裂带西大滩段断层气(Rn,CO2)的释放特征

通过在东昆仑活动断裂带西大滩段进行断层气测试,首次获取了该断裂带中Rn和CO2的释放量。在2004年开挖的2～3m深的探槽内,氡浓度可达20732Bq.m-3,氡发射率可达433mBq.m-2.s-1,远高于在地表的氡浓度505～2380Bq.m-3与氡发射率7～28.19mBq.m-2.s-1(地表氡发射率均值为14.7mBq.m-2.s-1,与世界平均值相当)。从而我们推断该断裂具有从上部第四系覆盖物到深部花岗岩之间的良好连通性。在地表CO2的析出率平均值为18.9g.m-2.d-1,与通常的背景值相当,在探槽中和距离断层1km的地方没有明显的空间变化,但是在断层北侧3km处的一个近乎直立的千枚岩小山上,CO2的析出率却很高,为421g.m-2.d-1,同时该处氡的发射率也高,达503mBq.m-2.s-1,因此,有必要在该断裂附近进行长期监测     

An investigation of the SO2 content of the venusian mesosphere using SPICAV-UV in nadir mode

Using the SPICAV-UV spectrometer aboard Venus Express in nadir mode, we were able to derive spectral radiance factors in the middle atmosphere of Venus in the 170-320 nm range at a spectral resolution of R ? 200 during 2006 and 2007 in the northern hemisphere. By comparison with a radiative transfer model of the upper atmosphere of Venus, we could derive column abundance above the visible cloud top for SO₂ using its spectral absorption bands near 280 and 220 nm. SO₂ column densities show large temporal and spatial variations on a horizontal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Typical SO₂ column densities at low latitudes (up to 50°N) were found between 5 and 50 μm-atm, whereas in the northern polar region SO₂ content was usually below 5 μm-atm. The observed latitudinal variations follow closely the cloud top altitude derived by SPICAV-IR and are thought to be of dynamical origin. Also, a sudden increase of SO₂ column density in the whole northern hemisphere has been observed in early 2007, possibly related to a convective episode advecting some deep SO₂ into the upper atmosphere.     

Behaviour of REE and mass balance calculations in a lateritic profile over chlorite schists in South Cameroon

An in situ weathering profile overlying chlorite schists in the Mbalmayo-Bengbis formations (South Cameroon) was chosen for the study of the behaviour of REE and the evaluation of geochemical mass balance. After physical and mineralogical studies, the chlorite schists and the undisturbed weathered materials were chemically analyzed for major elements (X-ray fluorescence and titrimetry) and REE (ICP-MS). The behaviour of the REE in the Mbalmayo weathering system was established in comparison with the REE of the reference parent rock. Mass balance calculations were applied to both major elements and REE. The mineralogy of the materials was determined with the aid of a Philips 1720, diffractometer. The chlorite schists of the Mbalmayo sector show low REE contents (Σ=153.44 ppm). These rocks are relatively rich in LREE (about 125 times the chondritic value) and relatively poor in HREE (about 20 times the chondritic value). The REE diagram normalized to chondrites shows a slightly split graph ((La/Yb)_N=6.18) with marked enrichment in LREE (LREE/HREE=9.50) in relation to HREE. Moreover, these spectra do not present any Ce anomaly, but a slightly positive Eu anomaly. The imperfectly evolved profile, whose materials are genetically linked, shows an atypical behaviour of REE. In effect, the LREE are more mobile than the HREE during weathering ((La/Yb)NASC<1) with weak Ce anomalies. This has been rarely reported in lateritic profiles characterized by higher HREE mobility than LREE during weathering processes with high Ce anomalies. This is either due to the difference in the stability of REE-bearing minerals, or to the weak acidic to basic pH conditions (6.70<pH<7.80), or even due to the average evolution of the weathering materials. The pathway of the REE along the profile is as follows: (1) leaching in the saprolites and summit of the profile, except for Ce, which precipitates very weakly in the nodular materials and the coarse saprolite materials, (2) at the base of the profile, solutions come in contact with chlorite schist formations, at this level, the pH increases (pH=7.79), HREE and a part of LREE partially void of Ce precipitate and (3) the other part of LREE precipitates further up in the profile. The geochemical mass balance calculations reveal that these elements are leached in the same phases as the relatively high Si, Al, K and Fe²⁺ contents.     

Disaster risk reduction legislations: Is there a move from events to processes?

Disaster research and scholarship is now advocating a shift from focusing on the hazard event to processes that generate vulnerability and loss of resilience to disasters. Disaster legislations are among prominent instruments that can highlight the tensions as well as challenges that are being encountered towards this change in focus. Using textual analysis, this paper presents a study that investigated whether five post-2002 disaster legislations have shifted emphasis from the hazard to the vulnerability and resilience paradigms. The five examples illustrate that while there is a slight change, at least in rhetoric, from response to a prevention focus, disaster legislations largely promote a centralised institutional framework, with inadequate resource commitments and limited participation from vulnerable communities. Consequently, while generalisations simply cannot be made without a wider analysis of many more examples from different countries, the five disaster legislations appear to re-emphasise the response focus with less attention on the processes that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. The conclusion is that while the rhetoric has changed, the disaster legislations have not significantly moved from the hazard to vulnerability and resilience focus suggesting that reduction of losses and damages to disasters remains a big challenge     

From Predictive Mapping of Mineral Prospectivity to Quantitative Estimation of Number of Undiscovered Prospects

This paper proposes that the spatial pattern of known prospects of the deposit‐type sought is the key to link predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity (PMMP) and quantitative mineral resource assessment (QMRA). This proposition is demonstrated by PMMP for hydrothermal Au‐Cu deposits (HACD) and by estimating the number of undiscovered prospects for HACD in Catanduanes Island (Philippines). The results of analyses of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD and their spatial associations with geological features are consistent with existing knowledge of geological controls on hydrothermal Au‐Cu mineralization in the island and elsewhere, and are used to define spatial recognition criteria of regional‐scale prospectivity for HACD. Integration of layers of evidence representing the spatial recognition criteria of prospectivity via application of data‐driven evidential belief functions results in a map of prospective areas occupying 20% of the island with fitting‐ and prediction‐rates of 76% and 70%, respectively. The predictive map of prospective areas and a proxy measure for degrees of exploration based on the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD were used in one‐level prediction of undiscovered mineral endowment, which yielded estimates of 79 to 112 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Application of radial‐density fractal analysis of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD results in an estimate of 113 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Thus, the results of the study support the proposition that PMMP can be a part of QMRA if the spatial pattern of discovered prospects of the deposit‐type sought is considered in both PMMP and QMRA.     

Marine renewable energy: The ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment

Many countries now recognise the need for mitigation of climate change induced by human activities and have incorporated renewable energy resources within their energy policy. There are extensive resources of renewable energy within the marine environment and increasing interest in extracting energy from locations with either large tidal range, rapid flow with and without wave interaction, or large wave resources. However, the ecological implications of altering the hydrodynamics of the marine environment are poorly understood. Ecological data for areas targeted for marine renewable developments are often limited, not least because of the considerable challenges to sampling in high energy environments. In order to predict the scale and nature of ecological implications there is a need for greater understanding of the distribution and extent of the renewable energy resource and in turn, of how marine renewable energy installations (MREIs) may alter energy in the environment. Regional ecological implications of a MREI need to be considered against the greater and global ecological threat of climate change. Finally, it is recommended that the identification of species and biotopes susceptible to the removal of hydrokinetic energy could be a suitable strategy for understanding how a MREI may alter flow conditions.     

Finite element analysis of the effect of corrosion on the behavior of reinforced earth walls

A simple model for the corrosion‐induced loss of stiffness and strength of the steel strips of earth‐reinforced walls was introduced in a finite element simulation of the long‐term behavior of the wall, in which the backfill‐strips interactions are taken into account by means of a generalized homogenization procedure (called a multiphase model). The results show an initial phase of slow displacements induced by the loss of stiffness, followed after a few decades by a steep acceleration of the displacements, leading to wall failure. The influences of the parameter controlling corrosion, the backfill cohesion and the heterogeneity of the corrosion process are discussed. Results are used to discuss a strategy for reinforced earth wall surveillance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic Characterization of Amphibolites from the Fomopéa Pluton (West Cameroon): Their Implication in the Pan-African Deformation of the Central African Fold Belt

The Fomopea granitic pluton is emplaced in gnessic and amphibolitic basement.These gneissic and amphibolitic basement rocks are represented in the pluton's body as sub-rounded,elongated or stretched xe...