An AHP–TOPSIS Predictive Model for District-Scale Mapping of Porphyry Cu–Au Potential: A Case Study from Salafchegan Area (Central Iran)

The Salafchegan area in central Iran is a greenfield region of high porphyry Cu–Au potential, for which a sound prospectivity model is required to guide mineral exploration. Satellite imagery, geological geochemical, geophysical, and mineral occurrence datasets of the area were used to run an innovative integration model for porphyry Cu–Au exploration. Five favorable multi-class evidence maps, representing diagnostic porphyry Cu–Au recognition criteria (intermediate igneous intrusive and sub-volcanic host rocks, structural controls, hydrothermal alterations, stream sediment Cu anomalies, magnetic signatures), were combined using analytic hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate a final map of porphyry Cu–Au potential in the Salafchegan area.     

The formation conditions of enstatite chondrites: Insights from trace element geochemistry of olivine‐bearing chondrules in Sahara 97096 (EH3)

We report in situ LA‐ICP‐MS trace element analyses of silicate phases in olivine‐bearing chondrules in the Sahara 97096 (EH3) enstatite chondrite. Most olivine and enstatite present rare earth element (REE) patterns comparable to their counterparts in type I chondrules in ordinary chondrites. They thus likely share a similar igneous origin, likely under similar redox conditions. The mesostasis however frequently shows negative Eu and/or Yb (and more rarely Sm) anomalies, evidently out of equilibrium with olivine and enstatite. We suggest that this reflects crystallization of oldhamite during a sulfidation event, already inferred by others, during which the mesostasis was molten, where the complementary positive Eu and Yb anomalies exhibited by oldhamite would have possibly arisen due to a divalent state of these elements. Much of this igneous oldhamite would have been expelled from the chondrules, presumably by inertial acceleration or surface tension effects, and would have contributed to the high abundance of opaque nodules found outside them in EH chondrites. In two chondrules, olivine and enstatite exhibit negatively sloped REE patterns, which may be an extreme manifestation of a general phenomenon (possibly linked to near‐liquidus partitioning) underlying the overabundance of light REE observed in most chondrule silicates relative to equilibrium predictions. The silicate phases in one of these two chondrules show complementary Eu, Yb, and Sm anomalies providing direct evidence for the postulated occurrence of the divalent state for these elements at some stage in the formation reservoir of enstatite chondrites. Our work supports the idea that the peculiarities of enstatite chondrites may not require a condensation sequence at high C/O ratios as has long been believed.     

Changes in diatom, pollen, and chironomid assemblages in response to a recent volcanic event in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes)

Several lakes in Chile are near important volcanic areas where eruption impacts can limit the quality of lacustrine sediments for reconstructing past environmental changes. In this study, we report changes in diatoms, pollen, and chironomids assemblages after a tephra deposition in Lake Galletué (Chilean Andes). A sediment core obtained from Lake Galletué (40 m water depth) was sliced in 1 cm intervals and subsamples were taken to analyze each proxy. ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs activities were measured to obtain the geochronology and mineralogical analyses were performed to determine the mineral composition of the tephra. Diatom species composition and productivity were modified when the lake received the tephra; Aulacoseira granulata decreased and was later replaced by Cyclotella af. glomerata. After the tephra input, Aulacoseira granulata abundance increased to pre-disturbance levels and Cyclotella af. glomerata decreased. These changes seem to suggest a momentary increase in lake nutrient levels after the tephra deposition. Chironomid assemblages also decreased in head capsules just after the tephra deposition, but the most important change was the replacement of Ablabesmyia by Parakiefferiella, probably due to the sedimentological changes produced by the input of coarse tephra grains. Furthermore, unlike other studies, chironomid assemblages in Lake Galletué did not show a decrease drastically in diversity within the tephra layer. The pollen analysis indicated that, prior to the volcanic event, the vegetal community was dominated by Nothofagus sp., Araucaria araucana, and Blechnum sp.-type. After the tephra deposition, the same taxa are dominant, indicating that the volcanic event seems not produce changes in the vegetation. Nevertheless, within the tephra layer it is possible to see an increase in Poaceae, which represent – due to the percolation process – the effect of eruption on the vegetation. According to our results, diatoms were the most sensitive proxy for describing the changes produced by tephra deposition into the aquatic ecosystem and, despite the noticeable changes in its sedimentological properties; the lake seems to have a high resilience capacity, allowing it to return to pre-tephra input conditions.     

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979–2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.     

The Dona Marika oil spill

Last August, 3,000 tons of petrol (gasolene) was spilled in Milford Haven when the tanker, Dona Marika, ran aground. Since most documented oil spills in British waters have been of crude oil, there is considerable interest in knowing the damage caused by this spillage of a refined oil product.     

Energy fluxes and melt rate of a seasonal snow cover in the Moroccan High Atlas

ABSTRACT

In this study, we used an energy balance model and two simple methods based on readily available data to identify the processes driving the point-scale energy and mass balance of the snowpack. Data were provided from an experimental site located at 3200 m. All models were evaluated by comparing observed and modelled snow water equivalents. Performances are variable from one season to the next and the energy balance model gives better results (mean of root mean square error, RMSE = 25 mm and r² = 0.90) than the two simplified approaches (mean of RMSE = 54 mm and r² = 0.70). There are significant amounts of snow sublimation but they are highly variable from season to season, depending on wind conditions (between 7 and 20% of the total). While the main source of energy for melting is net radiation, the amount of heat brought by sensible heat flux is significant for two of the most windy snow seasons.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor not assigned     

Predicting Lahar-Inundation Zones: Case Study in West Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

This paper demonstrates techniques for pre-eruption prediction of lahar-inundation zones in areas where a volcano has not erupted within living memory and/or where baseline geological information about past lahars could be scarce or investigations to delimit past lahars might be incomplete. A lahar source (or proximal lahar-inundation) zone is predicted based on ratio of vertical descent to horizontal run-out of eruptive deposits that spawn lahars. Immediate post-eruption distal lahar-inundation zones are predicted based on “pre-eruption” distal lahar-inundation zones and on spatial factors derived from a digital elevation model. Susceptibility to distal lahar-inundation is estimated by weights-of-evidence, by logistic regression and by evidential belief functions. Predictive techniques are applied using a geographic information system and are tested in western part of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines). Predictive maps are compared with a forecast volcanic-hazard map through validation against a field-based volcanic-hazard map. The predictive model of proximal lahar-inundation zone has “true positive” prediction accuracy, “true negative” prediction accuracy, “false positive” prediction error and “false negative” prediction error that are similar to those of the forecast volcanic-hazard map. The predictive models of distal lahar inundation zones have higher “true positive” prediction accuracy and lower “false negative” prediction error than the forecast volcanic-hazard map, although the latter has higher “true negative” prediction accuracy and lower “false positive” prediction error than the former. The results illustrate utility of proposed predictive techniques in providing geo-information could be used, howbeit with caution, for planning to mitigate potential lahar hazards well ahead of an eruption that could generate substantial source materials for lahar formation.     

Late glacial and early Holocene hydroclimate variability in northwest Iran (Talesh Mountains) inferred from chironomid and pollen analysis

We reconstructed the paleohydrologic and climatic history of the Lake Neor region, NW Iran, from the end of the late glacial to the middle Holocene (15,500–7500 cal yr BP). Subfossil chironomid and pollen assemblages in a sediment core from a peatland located south of Lake Neor enabled identification of four main hydrologic phases. The period 15,500–12,700 cal yr BP was characterized by a relatively dry climate with an open landscape, suggested by the abundance of Irano-Turanian steppe plants (e.g. Amaranthaceae, Artemisia and Cousinia). Dominance of several shallow-water and semi-terrestrial chironomid taxa (e.g. Pseudosmittia, Smittia/Parasmittia and Paraphaenocladius/Parametriocnemus) during this period is indicative of lower water tables in the wetland. Between 12,700 and 11,300 cal yr BP, chironomid taxa indicate higher wetland water tables, as suggested by the presence of Zavrelia, Chironomus anthracinus/plumosus-type and Micropsectra, which are inhabitants of open-water, lacustrine areas. The open-steppe vegetation remained dominant in the watershed during this time. Increasing wetland moisture could be explained by: (1) cool summers that reduced the evaporation rate; and/or (2) a decrease in duration of the summer dry season. The period 11,300–8700 cal yr BP was characterized by lower wetland moisture, contemporaneous with a delay in the expansion of deciduous forest, suggesting persistent dry climate conditions throughout the beginning of the Holocene, which may have been related to the intensified seasonality of precipitation. Around 8700 cal yr BP, higher wetland water levels, inferred from chironomids, occurred simultaneously with the onset of regional deciduous forest expansion, probably caused by a shortening of the summer dry period. We concluded that chironomids are appropriate paleoecological proxies to investigate global and local hydrologic variability in the Middle East.     

Bonding of methyl mercury to reduced sulfur groups in soil and stream organic matter as determined by x-ray absorption spectroscopy and binding affinity studies

We combined synchrotron-based X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy, extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy and binding affinity studies to determine the coordination, geometry, and strength of methyl mercury, CH₃Hg (II), bonding in soil and stream organic matter. Samples of organic soil (OS), potentially soluble organic substances (PSOS) from the soil, and organic substances from a stream (SOS) draining the soil were taken along a short “hydrological transect.” We determined the sum of concentrations of highly reduced organic S groups (designated Org-S_RED), such as thiol (RSH), disulfane (RSSH), sulfide (RSR), and disulfide (RSSR), using sulfur K-edge XANES. Org-S_RED varied between 27% and 64% of total S in our samples. Hg L_III-edge EXAFS analysis were determined on samples added CH₃Hg (II) to yield CH₃Hg (II)/Org-S_RED ratios in the range 0.01-1.62. At low ratios, Hg was associated to one C atom (the methyl group) at an average distance of 2.03 ± 0.02 Å and to one S atom at an average distance of 2.34 ± 0.03 Å, in the first coordination shell. At calculated CH₃Hg(II)/Org-S_RED ratios above 0.37 in OS, 0.32 in PSOS, and 0.24 in SOS, the organic S sites were saturated by CH₃Hg⁺, and O (and/or N) atoms were found in the first coordination shell of Hg at an average distance of 2.09 ± 0.01 Å. Based on the assumption that RSH (and possibly RSSH) groups take part in the complexation of CH₃Hg⁺, whereas RSSR and RSR groups do not, approximately 17% of total organic S consisted of RSH (+ RSSH) functionalities in the organic soil. Corresponding figures for samples PSOS and SOS were 14% and 9%, respectively. Competitive complexation of CH₃Hg⁺ by halide ions was used to determine the average binding strength of native concentrations of CH₃Hg (II) in the OS sample. Using data for Org-S_RED, calculated surface complexation constants were in the range from 10^16.3 to 10^16.7 for a model RSH site having an acidity constant of mercaptoacetic acid. These values compare favorably with identically defined stability constants (log K₁) for the binding of methyl mercury to thiol groups in well-defined organic compounds.