The West African monsoon onset in 2006: sensitivity to surface albedo, orography, SST and synoptic scale dry-air intrusions using WRF

In order to test the sensitivity of the transitional phase of the 2006 West African monsoon (WAM) onset to different mechanisms, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been carried out addressing the role of the Saharan heat low (SHL) and its sensitivity to the albedo field and to the northern Africa orography, and the role of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean. Lowering albedo over the desert region induces a northward location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), while removing mountains in North Africa reduces rainfall over West Africa. Shifting SST forward by 15?days leads to a northward location of the ITCZ before the WAM onset. However none of these factors modifies the timing of the WAM onset in 2006. The transitional phase of the 2006 WAM onset has been examined in more detail. The enhancement of SHL intensity, combined with the development of the oceanic cold tongue in the Guinea gulf, leads to low-level moisture flux divergence in the ITCZ reducing rainfall and increasing low-level humidity over the Sahel. However, weakening of convection can be clearly attributed to dry-air intrusions in mid-levels, originating from the subtropical westerly jet and associated with Rossby wave pattern over North Africa. Sensitivity tests on the synoptic scale forcing outside of the WRF model domain confirm the dominating role of large-scale dynamics to control the transitional phase of the WAM onset and its timing. However it is shown that the regional factors can modulate this larger scale forcing.     

Numerical investigation of the impact of uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimation and land surface model parameters on simulation of soil moisture

This study aims at evaluating the uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture (1D, vertical column) from an offline land surface model (LSM) forced by hydro-meteorological and radiation data. We focus on two types of uncertainty: an input error due to satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainty, and, LSM soil-parametric error. The study is facilitated by in situ and remotely sensed data-driven (precipitation, radiation, soil moisture) simulation experiments comprising a LSM and stochastic models for error characterization. The parametric uncertainty is represented by the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique, which models the parameter non-uniqueness against direct observations. Half-hourly infra-red (IR) sensor retrievals were used as satellite rainfall estimates. The IR rain retrieval uncertainty is characterized on the basis of a satellite rainfall error model (SREM). The combined uncertainty (i.e., SREM + GLUE) is compared with the partial assessment of uncertainty. It is found that precipitation (IR) error alone may explain moderate to low proportion of the soil moisture simulation uncertainty, depending on the level of model accuracy—50–60% for high model accuracy, and 20–30% for low model accuracy. Comparisons on the basis of two different sites also yielded an increase (50–100%) in soil moisture prediction uncertainty for the more vegetated site. This study exemplified the need for detailed investigations of the rainfall retrieval-modeling parameter error interaction within a comprehensive space-time stochastic framework for achieving optimal integration of satellite rain retrievals in land data assimilation systems.     

A new large supernova remnant in the southern sky?

A faint filamentary structure on a Southern Schmidt plate is thought to be a supernova remnant.     

Correlation of fabric tensors for granular materials using 2D DEM

Acta Geotechnica - Soil fabric anisotropy can be quantitatively assessed by means of fabric tensors introduced as internal variables in constitutive models and defined by unit vectors along the...     

Seismic analysis of coupled soil-pile-structure systems leading to the definition of a pseudo-natural SSI frequency

The elastodynamic response of coupled soil-pile-structure systems to seismic loading is studied using rigorous three-dimentional (3D) finite element models. The system under investigation comprises of a single pile supporting a single degree of freedom (SDOF) structure founded on a homogeneous viscoelastic soil layer over rigid rock. Parametric analyses are carried out in the frequency domain, focusing on the dynamic characteristics of the structure, as affected by typical foundation properties such as pile slenderness and soil-pile relative stiffness. Numerical results demonstrate the strong influence on effective natural SSI period of the foundation properties and the crucial importance of cross swaying-rocking stiffness of the pile. Furthermore, the notion of a pseudo-natural SSI frequency is introduced, as the frequency where pile-head motion is minimized with respect to free field surface motion. Dynamic pile bending is examined and the relative contributions of kinematic and inertial interaction, as affected by the frequency content of input motion, are elucidated.     

Dynamic stiffness and kinematic response of single piles in inhomogeneous soil

The effect of soil inhomogeneity on dynamic stiffness and kinematic response of single flexural elastic piles to vertically-propagating seismic SH waves is explored. A generalized parabolic function is employed to describe the variable shear wave propagation velocity in the inhomogeneous stratum. A layered soil with piece-wise homogeneous properties is introduced to approximate the continuous inhomogeneity in the realm of a Beam-on-Dynamic-Winkler-Foundation model. The problem is treated numerically by means of a layer transfer-matrix (Haskell–Thompson) formulation, and validated using available theoretical solutions and finite-element analyses. The role of salient model parameters such as pile-head fixity conditions, pile-to-soil stiffness ratio, surface-to-base shear wave velocity ratio and rate of inhomogeneity is elucidated. A new normalization scheme for inertial and kinematic response of such systems is presented based on an average Winkler wavenumber. With reference to long piles in moderately inhomogeneous soils, results indicate that: (a) kinematic pile response is essentially governed by a single dimensionless frequency parameter accounting for pile-to-soil stiffness ratio, pile slenderness and soil inhomogeneity and (b) definition of a characteristic pile wavelength allows an approximate estimation of pile elastodynamic response for preliminary design or analysis. Issues related to domain discretization and Winkler moduli are discussed.     

1D harmonic response of layered inhomogeneous soil: Analytical investigation

The seismic response of inhomogeneous soil deposits is explored analytically by means of one-dimensional viscoelastic wave propagation theory. The problem under investigation comprises of a continuously inhomogeneous stratum over a homogeneous layer of higher stiffness, with the excitation defined in terms of vertically propagating harmonic S waves imposed at the base of the system. A generalized parabolic function is employed to describe the variable shear wave propagation velocity in the inhomogeneous layer. The problem is treated analytically leading to an exact solution of the Bessel type for the natural frequencies, mode shapes and base-to-surface response transfer function. The model is validated using available theoretical solutions and finite-element analyses. Results are presented in the form of normalized graphs demonstrating the effect of salient model parameters such as layer thickness, impedance contrast between surface and base layer, rate of inhomogeneity and hysteretic damping ratio. Equivalent homogeneous soil approximations are examined. The effect of vanishing shear wave propagation velocity near soil surface on shear strains and displacements is explored by asymptotic analyses.     

Regional climate modelling of the 2006 West African monsoon: sensitivity to convection and planetary boundary layer parameterisation using WRF

Regional climate model (RCM) is a valuable scientific tool to address the mechanisms of regional atmospheric systems such as the West African monsoon (WAM). This study aims to improve our understanding of the impact of some physical schemes of RCM on the WAM representation. The weather research and forecasting model has been used by performing six simulations of the 2006 summer WAM season. These simulations use all combinations of three convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (PBLSs). By comparing the simulations to a large set of observations and analysis products, we have evaluated the ability of these RCM parameterizations to reproduce different aspects of the regional atmospheric circulation of the WAM. This study focuses in particular on the WAM onset and the rainfall variability simulated over this domain. According to the different parameterizations tested, the PBLSs seem to have the strongest effect on temperature, humidity vertical distribution and rainfall amount. On the other hand, dynamics and precipitation variability are strongly influenced by CPSs. In particular, the Mellor?CYamada?CJanjic PBLS attributes more realistic values of humidity and temperature. Combined with the Kain?CFritsch CPS, the WAM onset is well represented. The different schemes combination tested also reveal the role of different regional climate features on WAM dynamics, namely the low level circulation, the land?Catmosphere interactions and the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinean coast and the Sahel.     

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional “climate modeling” source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.     

The atmospheric component of the Mediterranean Sea water budget in a WRF multi-physics ensemble and observations

The use of high resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr^?1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr^?1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (～10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ～70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (～13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (～35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (～55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (～32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr^?1 over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation.