Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.     

Direct luminescence chronology of the Epipaleolithic Kebaran site of Nahal Hadera V,Israel

We report direct luminescence ages for the culture‐bearing sediments of the Kebaran site of Nahal Hadera V (NHV) in the coastal plain of Israel. Although the site contains, in addition to rich lithic deposits, plentiful mammalian bone, it has proved to be undatable using radiocarbon dating, in spite of the fact that the cultural context places the time of occupation well within the range of radiocarbon dating. In contrast, luminescence dating of the site sediments proved successful. Luminescence ages were determined using the single aliquot additive‐dose (SAA) method, applied to sand‐sized quartz extracts to determine past equivalent doses (D_e). Dose rates (R) were calculated using thick source alpha counting for the uranium (U) and thorium (Th) concentrations and x‐ray fluorescence analysis for the potassium (K₂0) concentration. Of the five samples collected at the site, four represent cultural and subcultural deposits and the fifth represents the geological substrate for the archaeological deposit, a quartz‐rich, carbonate‐cemented dune sand known as aeolianite or kurkar. The luminescence age of the kurkar is 42.7 ± 6.3 ka. Human occupation of the site occurred between 21.3 ka and 14.0 ka ago, during the Last Glacial Maximum. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Primitive Ordovician (Floian) echinoderms from Sandu,Guizhou Province,South China,and their significance

Pelmatozoans diversified primarily during the Middle and Late Ordovician Period, with Early Ordovician records being much more limited, resulting in many gaps in our knowledge of the early stages of their diversification. Dissociated pelmatozoan ossicles have been found abundantly in one section in the Tonggao Formation (Tetragraptus approximatus Biozone, Floian, Early Ordovician). Most of the ossicles are thecal plates and stem ossicles from hemicosmitoid and glyptocystitoid cystoids. Thecal plates of ‘Cheirocrinus’ sp., Polycosmites sp., and other plates of uncertain affinity are described. A different ossicle type, Pentagonopentagonalis (col.), may represent crinoid remains; this would be one of the earliest occurrences of the class. The thecal ossicles and columnals are all considered, as both sets of data are desirable to determine the most complete estimate of generic diversity. The echinoderm ossicles may have been transported in from shallower water palaeoenvironments and clusters of ossicles may represent coprolites or regurgitates. Estimates of Early Ordovician palaeogeography that place this site at 30°S or near the palaeoequator are supported by the physiological requirements of the primitive echinoderms described herein. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Natural variability associated with the CARLIT method on the rocky shores of the Ligurian Sea (Italy)

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC, adopted by the European Community in 2000 with the goal of maintaining and improving the aquatic environments, requires that member states achieve and maintain a good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. In the marine context, the ecological status has to be quantified applying indexes based on appropriate key biological elements, which allow the categorization of water bodies into five Ecological Status (ES) classes. The CARLIT index is a cartographic monitoring tool enabling the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) to be calculated using macroalgae in coastal hard bottoms as a key biological element; at present it is being applied in Spain, France and Italy. To detect actual changes of water quality and, consequently, rely on the application of indexes for the assessment of the ecological status in the marine environment, it is necessary to evaluate their sensitivity to natural variability at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study we present a first quantification of natural (spatial and temporal) variability of EQR‐CARLIT quality assessment in 2006 and 2007 along the Ligurian coast (North‐Western Mediterranean, Italy). The EQR‐CARLIT values recorded along the Ligurian coastline show that natural variability of EQR‐CARLIT is low and that it does not affect the attribution of a given stretch of coast to a particular ES class, in agreement with the major human pressures acting in the area (urbanization, river load, sea‐farming). A small‐scale variability was detected, strengthening the use of cartography of the whole rocky shore, whenever possible, or, alternatively, the assessment of the ecological status for long stretches of coast, to encompass the small‐scale variability due to local factors.     

Assessment of soil factors controlling ephemeral gully erosion on agricultural fields

The soil factor is crucial in controlling and properly modeling the initiation and development of ephemeral gullies (EGs). Usually, EG initiation has been related to various soil properties (i.e. sealing, critical shear stress, moisture, texture, etc.); meanwhile, the total growth of each EG (erosion rate) has been linked with proper soil erodibility. But, despite the studies to determine the influence of soil erodibility on (ephemeral) gully erosion, a universal approach is still lacking. This is due to the complex relationship and interactions between soil properties and the erosive process. A feasible soil characterization of EG erosion prediction on a large scale should be based on simple, quick and inexpensive tests to perform. The objective of this study was to identify and assess the soil properties – easily and quickly to determine – which best reflect soil erodibility on EG erosion. Forty‐nine different physical–chemical soil properties that may participate in establishing soil erodibility were determined on agricultural soils affected by the formation of EGs in Spain and Italy. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory and in the field (in the vicinity of the erosion paths). Because of its importance in controlling EG erosion, five variables related to antecedent moisture prior to the event that generated the gullies and two properties related to landscape topography were obtained for each situation. The most relevant variables were detected using multivariate analysis. The results defined 13 key variables: water content before the initiation of EGs, organic matter content, cation exchange capacity, relative sealing index, two granulometric and organic matter indices, seal permeability, aggregates stability (three index), crust penetration resistance, shear strength and an erodibility index obtained from the Jet Test erosion apparatus. The latter is proposed as a useful technique to evaluate and predict soil loss caused by EG erosion. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a multi‐temporal,LiDAR‐derived,digital terrain model in a landslide‐volume estimation

Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km² study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (V_L = 0.452A_L^1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (V_L = 2.510A_L^1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >10⁵ m² is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Historical trends in Florida temperature and precipitation

Because of its low topographic relief, unique hydrology, and the large interannual variability of precipitation, Florida is especially vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we investigate a comprehensive collection of climate metrics to study historical trends in both averages and extremes of precipitation and temperature in the state. The data investigated consist of long‐term records (1892–2008) of precipitation and raw (unadjusted) temperature at 32 stations distributed throughout the state. To evaluate trends in climate metrics, we use an iterative pre‐whitening method, which aims to separate positive autocorrelation from trend present in time series. Results show a general decrease in wet season precipitation, most evident for the month of May and possibly tied to a delayed onset of the wet season. In contrast, there seems to be an increase in the number of wet days during the dry season, especially during November through January. We found that the number of dog days (above 26.7 °C) during the year and during the wet season has increased at many locations. For the post‐1950 period, a widespread decrease in the daily temperature range (DTR) is observed mainly because of increased daily minimum temperature (Tmin). Although we did not attempt to formally attribute these trends to natural versus anthropogenic causes, we find that the urban heat island effect is at least partially responsible for the increase in Tmin and its corresponding decrease in DTR at urbanized stations compared with nearby rural stations. In the future, a formal trend attribution study should be conducted for the region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.