Far-field simulation of the 1946 Aleutian tsunami

We present hydrodynamic far-field simulations of the Aleutian tsunami of 1946 April 1, using both a dislocation source representing a slow earthquake and a dipolar one modelling a large landslide. The earthquake source is derived from the recent seismological study by López and Okal, while the landslide source was previously used to explain the exceptional run-up at Scotch Cap in the near field. The simulations are compared to a field data set previously compiled from testimonies of elderly witnesses at 27 far-field locations principally in the Austral and Marquesas Islands, with additional sites at Pitcairn, Easter and Juan Fernández. We find that the data set is modelled satisfactorily by the dislocation source, while the landslide fails to match the measured amplitudes, and to give a proper rendition of the physical interaction of the wavefield with the shore, in particular at Nuku Hiva, Marquesas. The emerging picture is that the event involved both a very slow earthquake, responsible for the far-field tsunami, and a major landslide explaining the near-field run-up, but with a negligible contribution in the far field.     

Tsunami Simulations for Regional Sources in the South China and Adjoining Seas

We present 14 scenarios of potential tsunamis in the South China Sea and its adjoining basins, the Sulu and Sulawezi Seas. The sources consist of earthquake dislocations inspired by the the study of historical events, either recorded (since 1900) or described in historical documents going back to 1604. We consider worst-case scenarios, where the size of the earthquake is not limited by the largest known event, but merely by the dimension of the basin over which a coherent fault may propagate. While such scenarios are arguably improbable, they may not be impossible, and as such must be examined. For each scenario, we present a simulation of the tsunami??s propagation in the marine basin, exclusive of its interaction with the coastline. Our results show that the South China, Sulu and Sulawezi Seas make up three largely independent basins where tsunamis generated in one basin do not leak into another. Similarly, the Sunda arc provides an efficient barrier to tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the shallow continental shelves in the Java Sea, the Gulf of Thailand and the western part of the South China Sea significantly dampen the amplitude of the waves. The eastern shores of the Malay Peninsula are threatened only by the greatest??and most improbable??of our sources, a mega-earthquake rupturing all of the Luzon Trench. We also consider two models of underwater landslides (which can be triggered by smaller events, even in an intraplate setting). These sources, for which there is both historical and geological evidence, could pose a significant threat to all shorelines in the region, including the Malay Peninsula.     

Africa’s middle class: building houses and constructing identities in the small town of Buea,Cameroon

Across Africa households are commissioning new domestic buildings for their own use or to rent out rather than waiting for governments to supply urban shelter. We conceptualize this as two interwoven processes: building houses for a new middle class and the building of a new middle class identity. We draw particular attention to the impact of international migration on these processes. The paper uses quantitative data from building permits and qualitative data from 29 interviews and walk-round tours with homeowners and government officials in Buea, Cameroon. Despite some significant caveats (related to housing the urban poor, regulating building standards, and lost local government revenue), we argue that these individually initiated building projects do a reasonable job of meeting local demand for shelter. However, from the perspective of identity-building these buildings are less successful. Whilst homeowners take considerable pride in their building projects, the statements that these structures make about their identities are not always “read” by their neighbours in the way owners hope. New housing is the lens through which Buea’s residents interpret growing levels of inequality and its associated social tensions.