Improving flow forecasting by error correction modelling in altered catchment conditions

Despite human is an increasingly significant component of the hydrologic cycle in many river basins, most hydrologic models are still developed to accurately reproduce the natural processes and ignore the effect of human activities on the watershed response. This results in non‐stationary model forecast errors and poor predicting performance every time these models are used in non‐pristine watersheds. In the last decade, the representation of human activities in hydrological models has been extensively studied. However, mathematical models integrating the human and the natural dimension are not very common in hydrological applications and nearly unknown in the day‐to‐day practice. In this paper, we propose a new simple data‐driven flow forecast correction method that can be used to simultaneously tackle forecast errors from structural, parameter and input uncertainty, and errors that arise from neglecting human‐induced alterations in conceptual rainfall–runoff models. The correction system is composed of two layers: (i) a classification system that, based on the current flow condition, detects whether the source of error is natural or human induced and (ii) a set of error correction models that are alternatively activated, each tailored to the specific source of errors. As a case study, we consider the highly anthropized Aniene river basin in Italy, where a flow forecasting system is being established to support the operation of a hydropower dam. Results show that, even by using very basic methods, namely if‐then classification rules and linear correction models, the proposed methodology considerably improves the forecasting capability of the original hydrological model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis

Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived. The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning, calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters. The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed databases.     

Blue and infrared light curves of the mysterious pre-main-sequence star V582 Mon (KH 15D) from 1955 to 1970

In recent years, an increasing number of publications have been devoted to the peculiar and mysterious pre-main-sequence star V582 Mon, also known as KH 15D. This extraordinary T Tauri star, located in the young star cluster NGC 2264, appears to be an eclipsing variable. In the present paper, we report a unique and self-consistent set of light curves in the blue and near-infrared (IR) bands, spanning a 15-yr interval (epoch 1955–1970). Our photometric data show clearly that the beginning of the eclipse stage occurred in early 1958 in the blue, and perhaps around 4 yr later in the IR. The light-curve period turns out to be the same reported by recent observations (about 48.3 d), so that no evidence for a period change results. On the other hand, in our data the light-curve shape appears to be sinusoidal and is therefore different from the one displayed today. The photometric behaviour, determined with time-series and colour-index analysis, suggests that V582 Mon (KH 15D) could initially be surrounded by an accretion disc/torus seen edge-on, with subsequent thin dust formation at the beginning of the blue radiation absorption. The dust could then aggregate into larger particles providing the transition between selective and total absorption, accompanied with eclipsing variability in the IR. The minima of the periodic light curve become deeper owing to the increasing dimension and number of dust grains, and then flatten owing to a contraction in the disc.     

The Campo Imperatore Near Earth Object Survey (CINEOS)

The Campo Imperatore Near Earth Object Survey (CINEOS) is an Italian survey dedicated to the search and follow-up of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). It is operated with the 90 cm f/3 Schmidt telescope at the Campo Imperatore of the Rome Astronomical Observatory (INAF-OAR) as a joint project with the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale and Fisica Cosmica (INAF-IASF) in Rome. Since the end of 2001 CINEOS has covered about 4,250 sq. deg to 20th magnitude in the course of about 160 nights. This effort led to the discovery of 7 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 1 comet (167P/CINEOS; a member of the Centaur group) and a few other unusual objects including 2004 XH₅₀ with a unique comet-like orbit. CINEOS has also contributed almost 2,200 preliminary designations and over 30,000 detections to the Minor Planet Center. About 20% of the survey effort was carried out at low solar elongations (LSE), although no object with an orbit interior (Inner Earth Objects, IEO class) or nearly interior to the Earth (Aten class) was found. The work at LSE was, however, very important to test survey strategies implemented with larger telescopes. We also provide the results of a CINEOS simulation on a reliable NEO population model based on the results of two larger scale surveys, Spacewatch and LINEAR.     

Numerical modeling of impact heating and cooling of the Vredefort impact structure

Abstract— Large meteorite impacts, such as the one that created the Vredefort structure in South Africa?2 Ga ago, result in significant heating of the target. The temperatures achieved in these events have important implications for post‐impact metamorphism as well as for the development of hydrothermal systems. To investigate the post‐impact thermal evolution and the size of the Vredefort structure, we have analyzed impact‐induced shock heating in numerical simulations of terrestrial impacts by projectiles of a range of sizes thought to be appropriate for creating the Vredefort structure. When compared with the extent of estimated thermal shock metamorphism observed at different locations around Vredefort, our model results support our earlier estimates that the original crater was 120–160 km in diameter, based on comparison of predicted to observed locations of shock features. The simulations demonstrate that only limited shock heating of the target occurs outside the final crater and that the cooling time was at least 0.3 Myr but no more than 30 Myr.     

The Sustainable Pumping Rate Concept: Lessons from a Case Study in Central Italy

The term sustainable pumping rate (SPR) is defined as the maximum pumping rate that can be maintained indefinitely without mining an aquifer, and is different from the concept of safe yield (SY), which takes into account also aspects related to the much wider concept of sustainability. The assessment of the SPR for the case study of Petrignano d'Assisi, an alluvial aquifer located in Central Italy, shows the need for a reliable estimate of the global water budget of the aquifer, particularly of the recharge under undisturbed conditions; however, the latter is not sufficient, because the SPR is affected also by the geometry of the aquifer, the hydraulic conductivity pattern, the variation of recharge/discharge ratio induced by the abstractions, and so on. All these aspects are analyzed by means of a numerical flow model calibrated both under undisturbed conditions (1974) and under exploitation conditions (1998 to 2004). The steady-state modeling results show that the relation between recharge and abstractions both at local and global scale is a key point in order to estimate a long-term SPR. Moreover, as it could be necessary to overexploit the aquifer for short periods, e.g., during drought episodes, the estimate of SPR must be performed also in transient conditions, in order to take into account the characteristic time of depletion and the successive recovery.     

Sources of contamination to weak lensing tomography: redshift-dependent shear measurement bias

The current methods available to estimate gravitational shear from astronomical images of galaxies introduce systematic errors which can affect the accuracy of weak lensing cosmological constraints. We study the impact of KSB shape measurement bias on the cosmological interpretation of tomographic two-point weak lensing shear statistics.
We use a set of realistic image simulations produced by the Shear Testing Programme (STEP) collaboration to derive shape measurement bias as a function of redshift. We define biased two-point weak lensing statistics and perform a likelihood analysis for two fiducial surveys. We present a derivation of the covariance matrix for tomography in real space and a fitting formula to calibrate it for non-Gaussianity.
We find the biased aperture mass dispersion is reduced by  ∼20 per cent  at redshift ∼1, and has a shallower scaling with redshift. This effect, if ignored in data analyses, biases σ₈ and w ₀ estimates by a few per cent. The power of tomography is significantly reduced when marginalizing over a range of realistic shape measurement biases. For a Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS)-Wide-like survey,  [Ω_m, σ₈]  confidence regions are degraded by a factor of 2, whereas for a Kilo-Degree Survey (KIDS)-like survey the factor is 3.5. Our results are strictly valid only for KSB methods, but they demonstrate the need to marginalize over a redshift-dependent shape measurement bias in all future cosmological analyses.