Uncertainty quantification in numerical simulation of particle-laden flows

Numerical models can help to push forward the knowledge about complex dynamic physical systems. Modern approaches employ detailed mathematical models, taking into consideration inherent uncertainties on input parameters (phenomenological parameters or boundary and initial conditions, among others). Particle-laden flows are complex physical systems found in nature, generated due to the (possible small) spatial variation on the fluid density promoted by the carried particles. They are one of the main mechanisms responsible for the deposition of sediments on the seabed. A detailed understanding of particle-laden flows, often referred to as turbidity currents, helps geologists to understand the mechanisms that give rise to reservoirs, strategic in oil exploration. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides a rational framework to assist in this task, by combining sophisticated computational models with a probabilistic perspective in order to deepen the knowledge about the physics of the problem and to access the reliability of the results obtained with numerical simulations. This work presents a stochastic analysis of sediment deposition resulting from a turbidity current considering uncertainties on the initial sediment concentrations and particles settling velocities. The statistical moments of the deposition mapping, like other important features of the currents, are approximated by a Sparse Grid Stochastic Collocation method that employ a parallel flow solver for the solution of the deterministic problems associated to the grid points. The whole procedure is supported and steered by a scientific workflow management engine designed for high performance computer applications.     

Stability of Solution Cavities in Urban Developments: A Case Study Towards Enhancing Geohazard Risk Assessment

Karst cavities in fissured soluble rock represent serious geotechnical hazard for civil construction and urban development. The process of cavity formation, expansion, and propagation is difficult to predict because it is driven by a combination of diverse causes, such as the dissolution rate of rock; flow of groundwater; amount of fine material within rock layers; presence of loose, uncontrolled fill over the rock; and the leakage of underground utilities. Several factors can affect cavity stability, including cavity geometry and dimensions, cavity depth, overburden surface-layer lithology, and surface-loading conditions. This paper presents a case study for karst cavities stability in the Abu Dhabi Municipality (ADM) of the United Arab Emirates as part of a comprehensive study initiated by the ADM to address the geotechnical, geologic, and hydrogeological hazards encountered in the municipality. The purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for assessing karst cavities stability in the ADM, and thereby, quantify their potential hazard for civil construction and urban development in the municipality. A numerical study is performed, using a finite difference model that is based on site-specific ground conditions encountered in a localized area. Results from this numerical investigation are presented in the form of stability charts for different lithologic and surface-loading conditions. These charts are used to develop a set of geographic information system cavity-collapse geohazard maps for the study area to factor solution cavity-collapse risk into an integrated geohazard map for the ADM. Based on available information and the case study presented herein, it is concluded that the collapse of solution cavities do not significantly contribute to the geotechnical hazard observed in the ADM.     

Integrated field, satellite and petrological observations of the November 2010 eruption of Erta Ale

Erta Ale volcano, Ethiopia, erupted in November 2010, emplacing new lava flows on the main crater floor, the first such eruption from the southern pit into the main crater since 1973, and the first eruption at this remote volcano in the modern satellite age. For many decades, Erta Ale has contained a persistently active lava lake which is ordinarily confined, several tens of metres below the level of the main crater, within the southern pit. We combine on-the-ground field observations with multispectral imaging from the SEVIRI satellite to reconstruct the entire eruptive episode beginning on 11 November and ending prior to 14 December 2010. A period of quiescence occurred between 14 and 19 November. The main eruptive activity developed between 19 and 22 November, finally subsiding to pre-eruptive levels between 8 and 15 December. The estimated total volume of lava erupted is ??0.006?km³. The mineralogy of the 2010 lava is plagioclase?+?clinopyroxene?+?olivine. Geochemically, the lava is slightly more mafic than previously erupted lava lining the caldera floor, but lies within the range of historical lavas from Erta Ale. SIMS analysis of olivine-hosted melt inclusions shows the Erta Ale lavas to be relatively volatile-poor, with H₂O contents ??1,300?ppm and CO₂ contents of ??200?ppm. Incompatible trace and volatile element systematics of melt inclusions show, however, that the November 2010 lavas were volatile-saturated, and that degassing and crystallisation occurred concomitantly. Volatile saturation pressures are in the range 7?C42?MPa, indicating shallow crystallisation. Calculated pre-eruption and melt inclusion entrapment temperatures from mineral/liquid thermometers are ??1,150?°C, consistent with previously published field measurements.     

Paleoecology of Late Carboniferous Phylloid Algae in Southern Guizhou, SW China

Phylloid algae arc important rcef-builders in the late Carboniferous. This paper focuses on the paleoecology of phylloid algae in the Late Carboniferous on well-exposed reefs in Ziyun County, Guizhou Province. Phylloid algae growing closely packed arc attached via holdfast or similar structure to substrate. They were growing in environments such as shallow water, photic zone and below the wave base with medium energy currents. They have a variety of morphological forms, such as single cup-shaped, cabbage-shaped and clustering cup-shaped. The thalli arc of certain tenacity and intensity. In the areas dominated by phylloid algae, other marine orgam＇sms arc relatively scarce. Obviously, phylloid algae arc stronger competitors for living space than other co-occurring organisms.     

Changes in climate,vegetation cover and vegetation composition affect runoff generation in the Gulf of Guinea Basin

Although considerable effort has been deployed to understand the impact of climate variability and vegetation change on runoff in major basins across Africa, such studies are scarce in the Gulf of Guinea Basin (GGB). This study combines the Budyko framework and elasticity concept along with geospatial data to fill this research gap in 44 nested sub-basins in the GGB. Annual rainfall from 1982 to 2021 show significant decreasing and increasing trends in the northern and southern parts of the GGB, respectively. Annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) also shows significant increasing trends with higher magnitudes observed in the northern parts of the GGB. Changing trends in climate variables corroborates with shift to arid and wetter conditions in the north and south, respectively. From 2000 to 2020 vegetation cover estimated using enhanced vegetation index (EVI) shows significant increasing trends in all sub-basins including those experiencing a decline in annual rainfall. Vegetation composition measured using vegetation continuous fields (VCFs) from 2000 to 2020 show an increase in tree canopy cover (TC), a decline in short vegetation cover and marginal changes in bare ground cover (BG). Elasticity coefficients show that a 10% increase in annual rainfall and PET may lead to a 33% increase and 24% decline in runoff, respectively. On the other hand, a 10% increase in EVI may lead to a 4% decline in runoff while a 10% increase in TC, SV and BG may reduce runoff by 4% and increase runoff by 3% and 2%, respectively. Even though changes are marginal, decomposing vegetation into different parameters using EVI and VCFs may lead to different hydrological effects on runoff which is one of the novelties of this study that may be used for implementing nature-based solutions. The study also demonstrates that freely available geospatial data together with analytical methods are a promising approach for understanding the impact of climate variability and vegetation change on hydrology in data-scarce regions.     

Holocene insect fossils from two sites at Ennadai Lake, Keewatin, Northwest Territories, Canada

Ennadai Lake, in the forest-tundra ecotonal region of Keewatin, Northwest Territories, Canada, has been the subject of several paleoecological investigations (palynology, plant macrofossils, fossil soils). This study concerns Holocene insect fossils at Ennadai, a new approach in a region shown to be sensitive to climatic change. The Ennadai I site yielded 53 taxa, representing 13 families of Coleoptera and 7 families of other insects and arachnids, including abundant ants. These fossils range in age from about 6300 to 630 yr B.P. The Ennadai II site produced fossils of 58 taxa, including 13 beetle families and 15 families of other arthropods, ranging in age from 4700 to 870 yr B.P. The insect evidence suggests the presence of trees in the Ennadai region from 6000 to 2200 yr B.P. A conifer pollen decline from 4800 to 4500 yr B.P. at Ennadai has previously been interpreted as an opening up or retreat of forest in response to climatic cooling, but the insect fossils reveal the continued presence of trees during this interval. Both insect assemblages suggest trends of forest retreat and tundra expansion between about 2200 and 1500 yr B.P., presumably due to climatic cooling, with a return of woodland by about 1000 yr B.P.     

The Dynamics of an Introduced: Balanus glandula Population in the Southwestern Atlantic Rocky Shores. The Consequences on the Intertidal Community*

Abstract. This paper deals with the population dynamics of the introduced barnacle Balanus glandula in a port shelter and a rocky shore exposed of a southwestern Atlantic area. Replicated areas in both zones were denuded monthly and censused in both the high intertidal and the upper mid intertidal zone. The settlement pattern. recruitment, mortality and growth of B. glandula and a comparative successional pattern in both areas were recorded. Recruitment began in winter, i.e., July in the port and August in the rocky shore. In the port, green algae dominate up to a final community of Balanus glandula all along the intertidal, while in rocky shores the red encrusting alga Hildenbrandia lecanellieri establishes a cover that is replaced by the mytilid Brachidontes rodriguezi in the mid intertidal and by B. glandula in the high intertidal and upper mid intertidal. B. glandula densities were greater in the upper mid intertidal 19 600 and 5050 indiv. · m^-2 in the port and rocky shore, respectively than in the high intertidal 13600 and 1100 indiv.· m^-2, respectively. Mortality was greater in the port up to 62%, but heavy settlement allows a final density 4 times greater than in eulittoral rocky shores and 10 times greater than in the high intertidal. The winter reproduction of Balanus glandula, the absence of predators, the neutral or beneficial effect of algae. with spatial and temporal partitioning of substrate allows it to successfully outcompete mussels and other barnacle species from the intertidal community of both sheltered and exposed areas.