The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

La branche orientale de l'arc de Chypre. Morphostructure d'une frontière de plaques d'après les résultats de la campagne BLAC (2003)

The eastern bend of the Cyprus Arc, at the transition between the submerged Mediterranean subduction and the onshore fault zones that underline the Eurasian, African and Arabic plates boundaries is a submarine feature undergoing a complex tectonic deformation. The BLAC marine geophysical survey helps to better assess the type of the deformation that affects the Messinian to Quaternary sediments along this plate boundary. The deformation, focussed between two tectonic corridors, displays compressive and transpressive features in the central part, becoming thrusting when moving westward in connection with the Cyprus accretionnary wedge. The northeastern end of this submarine range connects with the Latakia Ridge, which is, together with its continental extension, under a tensional tectonic regime. To cite this article: J. Benkhelil et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland

There is a growing need of the climate change impact modeling and adaptation community to have more localized climate change scenario information available over complex topography such as in Switzerland. A gridded dataset of expected future climate change signals for seasonal averages of daily mean temperature and precipitation in Switzerland is presented. The basic scenarios are taken from the CH2011 initiative. In CH2011, a Bayesian framework was applied to obtain probabilistic scenarios for three regions within Switzerland. Here, the results for two additional Alpine sub-regions are presented. The regional estimates have then been downscaled onto a regular latitude-longitude grid with a resolution of 0.02° or roughly 2 km. The downscaling procedure is based on the spatial structure of the climate change signals as simulated by the underlying regional climate models and relies on a Kriging with external drift using height as auxiliary predictor. The considered emission scenarios are A1B, A2 and the mitigation scenario RCP3PD. The new dataset shows an expected warming of about 1 to 6 °C until the end of the 21st century, strongly depending on the scenario and the lead time. Owing to a large vertical gradient, the warming is about 1 °C stronger in the Alps than in the Swiss lowlands. In case of precipitation, the projection uncertainty is large and in most seasons precipitation can increase or decrease. In summer a distinct decrease of precipitation can be found, again strongly depending on the emission scenario.     

Puhimau Thermal Area: A Window into the Upper East Rift Zone of Volcano, Hawaii?

We report the results of two soil CO₂ efflux surveys by the closed chamber circulation method at the Puhimau thermal area in the upper East Rift Zone (ERZ) of volcano, Hawaii. The surveys were undertaken in 1996 and 1998 to constrain how much CO₂ might be reaching the ERZ after degassing beneath the summit caldera and whether the Puhimau thermal area might be a significant contributor to the overall CO₂ budget of . The area was revisited in 2001 to determine the effects of surface disturbance on efflux values by the collar emplacement technique utilized in the earlier surveys. Utilizing a cutoff value of 50 g m⁻² d⁻¹ for the surrounding forest background efflux, the CO₂ emission rates for the anomaly at Puhimau thermal area were 27 t d⁻¹ in 1996 and 17 t d⁻¹ in 1998. Water vapor was removed before analysis in all cases in order to obtain CO₂ values on a dry air basis and mitigate the effect of water vapor dilution on the measurements. It is clear that Puhimau thermal area is not a significant contributor to CO₂ output and that most of CO₂ (8500 t d⁻¹) is degassed at the summit, leaving only magma with its remaining stored volatiles, such as SO₂, for injection down the ERZ. Because of the low CO₂ emission rate and the presence of a shallow water table in the upper ERZ that effectively scrubs SO₂ and other acid gases, Puhimau thermal area currently does not appear to be generally well suited for observing temporal changes in degassing at .     

Particulate contribution to extinction of visible radiation: Pollution, haze, and fog

A data set acquired by eight particle-dedicated instruments set up on the SIRTA (Site Instrumental de Recherche par Télédétection Atmosphérique, which is French for Instrumented Site for Atmospheric Remote Sensing Research) during the ParisFog field campaign are exploited to document microphysical properties of particles contributing to extinction of visible radiation in variable situations. The study focuses on a 48-hour period when atmospheric conditions are highly variable: relative humidity changes between 50 and 100%, visibility ranges between 65 and 35 000 m, the site is either downwind the Paris area either under maritime influence. A dense and homogeneous fog formed during the night by radiative cooling. In 6 h, visibility decreased down from 30 000 m in the clear-sky regime to 65 m within the fog, because of advected urban pollution (factor 3 to 4 in visibility reduction), aerosol hydration (factor 20) and aerosol activation (factor 6). Computations of aerosol optical properties, based on Mie theory, show that extinction in clear-sky regime is due equally to the ultrafine modes and to the accumulation mode. Extinction by haze is due to hydrated aerosol particles distributed in the accumulation mode, defined by a geometric mean diameter of 0.6 μm and a geometric standard deviation of 1.4. These hydrated aerosol particles still contribute by 20 ± 10% to extinction in the fog. The complementary extinction is due to fog droplets distributed around the geometric mean diameter of 3.2 μm with a geometric standard deviation of 1.5 during the first fog development stage. The study also shows that the experimental set-up could not count all fog droplets during the second and third fog development stages.     

Accurately measuring volcanic plume velocity with multiple UV spectrometers

A fundamental problem with all ground-based remotely sensed measurements of volcanic gas flux is the difficulty in accurately measuring the velocity of the gas plume. Since a representative wind speed and direction are used as proxies for the actual plume velocity, there can be considerable uncertainty in reported gas flux values. Here we present a method that uses at least two time-synchronized simultaneously recording UV spectrometers (FLYSPECs) placed a known distance apart. By analyzing the time varying structure of SO₂ concentration signals at each instrument, the plume velocity can accurately be determined. Experiments were conducted on Kīlauea (USA) and Masaya (Nicaragua) volcanoes in March and August 2003 at plume velocities between 1 and 10 m s⁻¹. Concurrent ground-based anemometer measurements differed from FLYSPEC-measured plume speeds by up to 320%. This multi-spectrometer method allows for the accurate remote measurement of plume velocity and can therefore greatly improve the precision of volcanic or industrial gas flux measurements. Editorial responsibility: A. Woods     

Asiago Supernova classification program: Blowing out the first two hundred candles

We present the compilation of the first 221 supernovae classified during the Asiago Classification Program (ACP). The details of transients classification and the preliminarily reduced spectra, in fits format, are immediately posted on the Padova‐Asiago SN group web site. The achieved performances for the first 2 years of the ACP are analysed, showing that half of all our classifications were made within 5 days from transient detection. The distribution of the supernova types of this sample resembles the distribution of the general list of all the supernovae listed in the Asiago SN catalog (ASNC, Barbon et al. 1999). Finally, we use our subsample of 78 core‐collapse supernovae, for which we retrieve the host‐galaxy morphology and r ‐band absolute magnitudes, to study the observed subtype distribution in dwarf compared to giant galaxies. This ongoing program will give its contribution to the classification of the large number of transients that will be soon delivered by the Gaia mission. (© 2014 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)