A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

A broad‐scale assessment of the effect of improved soil management on catchment baseflow index

Although the importance of sustainable soil management is recognized, there are many threats to soils including widespread soil structural degradation. This reduces infiltration through the soil surface and/or the percolation of water through the soil profile, with important consequences for crop yields, nutrient cycling and the hydrological response of catchments. This article describes a broad‐scale modelling approach to assess the potential effect that improved agricultural soil management, through reduced soil structural degradation, may have on the baseflow index (BFI) of catchments across England and Wales. A daily soil–water balance model was used to simulate the indicative BFI of 45 696 thirty‐year model runs for different combinations of soil type, soil/field condition, land cover class and climate which encapsulate the variability across England and Wales. The indicative BFI of catchments was then calculated by upscaling the results by spatial weighting. WaSim model outputs of indicative BFI were within the 95% confidence intervals of the national‐average BFI values given for the Hydrology of Soil Type (HOST ? ) classes for 26 of the 28 classes. At the catchment scale, the concordance correlation coefficient between the BFI from the WaSim model outputs and those derived from HOST was 0·83. Plausible improvements in agricultural soil/field condition produced modest simulated increases of up to 10% in the indicative BFI in most catchments across England and Wales, although for much of southern and northern England the increases were less than 5%. The results suggest that improved soil management might partially mitigate the expected adverse effects of climate change on baseflow to rivers. Healthy, well‐functioning soils produce many additional benefits such as better agricultural yields and reduced pollutant movement, so improved soil management should provide win‐win opportunities for society, agricultural systems and the environment and provide resilience to some of the expected environmental impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study of the barotropic tides and tidal energy distribution in the Indonesian seas with the assimilated finite volume coastal ocean model

The tides and tidal energetics in the Indonesian seas are simulated using a three-dimensional finite volume coastal ocean model. The high-resolution coastline-fitted model is configured to better resolve the hydrodynamic processes around the numerous barrier islands. A large model domain is adopted to minimize the uncertainty adjacent to open boundaries. The model results with elevation assimilation based on a simple nudge scheme faithfully reproduced the general features of the barotropic tides in the Indonesian Seas. The mean root-mean-square errors between the observed and simulated tidal constants are 2.3, 1.1, 2.4, and 1.5 cm for M₂, S₂, K₁, and O₁, respectively. Analysis of the model solutions indicates that the semidiurnal tides in the Indonesian Seas are primarily dominated by the Indian Ocean, whereas the diurnal tides in this region are mainly influenced by the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with previous studies. Examinations of tidal energy transport reveal that the tidal energy for both of the simulated tidal constituents are transported from the Indian Ocean into the IS mainly through the Lombok Strait and the Timor Sea, whereas only M₂ energy enters the Banda Sea and continues northward. The tidal energy dissipates the most in the passages on both sides of Timor Island, with the maximum M₂ and K₁ tidal energy transport reaching about 750 and 650 kW m^–1, respectively. The total energy losses of the four dominant constituents in the IS are nearly 338 GW, with the M₂ constituent dissipating 240.8 GW. It is also shown that the bottom dissipation rate for the M₂ tide is about 1–2 order of magnitudes larger than that of the other three tidal components in the Indonesian seas.     

Urban stormwater thermal gene expression models for protection of sensitive receiving streams

Thermal impact of typical high‐density residential, industrial, and commercial land uses is a major concern for the health of aquatic life in urban watersheds, especially in smaller, cold, and cool‐water streams. This is the first study of its kind that provides simple easy‐to‐use equations, developed using gene expression programming (GEP) that can guide the assessment and the design of urban stormwater management systems to protect thermally sensitive receiving streams. We developed 3 GEP models using data collected during 3 years (2009–2011) from 4 urban catchments; the first GEP model predicts event mean temperature at the inlet of the pond; the second model predicts the stormwater temperature at the outlet of the pond; and the third model predicts the temperature of the stormwater after flowing through a cooling trench and before discharging to the receiving stream. The new models have high correlation coefficients of 0.90–0.94 and low prediction uncertainty of less than 4% of the median value of the predicted runoff temperatures. Sensitivity analysis shows that climatic factors have the highest influence on the thermal enrichment followed by the catchment characteristics and the key design variables of the stormwater pond and the cooling trench. The general method presented here is easily transferable to other regions of the world (but not necessarily the exact equations developed here); also through sensitivity and parametric analysis, we gained insight on the key factors and their relative importance in modelling thermal enrichment of urban stromwater runoff.     

39Ar recoil losses and presolar ages in Allende inclusions

Ar analyses are reported for five coarse-grained, Ca-Al-rich inclusions from the Allende meteorite. The samples were neutron-irradiated in individual evacuated ampoules, and the Ar gas in the ampoules as well as the samples was analyzed. A large fraction (up to 60%) of the³⁹Ar from³⁹K (n, p) reactions was lost out of the inclusions into the ampoules. The³⁹Ar losses resulted in substantial increases in the apparent⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages of the samples.³⁹Ar recoil loss during neutron-irradiation is a major effect and must be accounted for in⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar dating. All of the Allende inclusions studied contained substantial trapped³⁶Ar. The origin of the trapped³⁶Ar is unknown, and the possible presence of trapped⁴⁰Ar cannot be excluded. Ar measurements on Allende inclusions which have yielded anomalously old ages must be re-examined in the context of³⁹Ar recoil loss and possible contributions of trapped⁴⁰Ar. Allende inclusions appear on both accounts to be poor candidates to search for relicts of presolar materials with well-defined K/Ar ages.     

The continuity equation slope model and basal boundary conditions: A further comment

Intermediates between a fixed basal elevation and a constant rate of downcutting throughout the slope profile are perhaps more realistic than either extreme case.     

Evidence for long-term asymmetries in the Earth's magnetic field and possible implications for dynamo theories

Paleomagnetic data indicate that there is a north-south asymmetry in the time-averaged magnetic field and that there are small but significant differences between the normal and reverse polarity states. The geographical variation is most likely due to spatial variation in the boundary conditions at the core-mantle interface. The difference in the magnetic fields of the reverse and normal polarity states can be modeled in terms of a “standing field”. The paleomagnetic data are insufficient to determine whether or not this “standing field” is of core origin. However, consideration of mechanisms, including thermoelectric currents, indicates that there probably are important differences in core processes between the two polarity states. At first glance this interpretation is difficult to reconcile with the fact that the magnetic induction equation is antisymmetric with respect to the magnetic field. A way around this problem is the possibility that only certain transitions are allowed between acceptable eigenstates in dynamo models of the Earth's magnetic field.     

Variations in plasma parameters and magnetic field upon magnetopause crossing at the main phase maximum of the magnetic storm of November 14, 2012

Measurements of the plasma parameters and magnetic field upon magnetopause crossings by the THEMIS-А satellite during the large magnetic storm of November 14, 2012, are analyzed. The main specific feature of this event is the magnetopause crossing at the time of the magnetic-storm maximum. An imbalance of total pressure on the magnetopause reaching up to ~40% has been observed. An abrupt turn of the magnetic field immediately on the magnetopause is recorded. Inside the magnetosphere, plasma motions have been observed, both along the magnetopause and inward, at velocities of ~100–300 km/s. Variations in geomagnetic parameters are analyzed before and after the crossing. It is shown that specific features of the observed crossing may be associated with a sharp change in the magnetospheric current systems during the magnetospheric substorm.     

Retrieving earthquake signature in grace gravity solutions

The GRACE satellites have been orbiting the Earth since 2002, monitoring the time variable gravity field. Some of the observed fluctuations are due to geodynamic causes, but they are often hidden in the complex signal, composed of hydrology, ocean, atmosphere, and geodynamics, the signal of geodynamic origin being usually the smallest. In addition, dealiasing residuals and noise make the separation of the signal from the different causes more difficult. We proposed a method based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function decomposition to extract the signal of physical origin, under the hypothesis that the physical signal is spatially more consistent than the noise and aliasing incomplete correction. We used synthetic geoid variations associated with earthquakes located at nearly 2000 positions at the Earth surface, based on several examples of large actual subduction events. We show that, with the present day accuracy, we can retrieve the geoid variations associated with more than 98 per cent of the earthquakes of magnitude 9 or above, around 60 per cent for magnitude 8.8, 40 per cent for magnitude 8.6 and 33 per cent for magnitude 8.3. Some events, with the right properties and location, can be detected with magnitude as low as 8. We then applied the method to the GRACE solutions, and retrieved the Hokkaido event (2003) and the Sumatra event (2004), which is in agreement with the retrieval rates mentioned here above.     

Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.