Development and verification of deep-water blowout models

Modeling of deep-water releases of gas and oil involves conventional plume theory in combination with thermodynamics and mass transfer calculations. The discharges can be understood in terms of multiphase plumes, where gas bubbles and oil droplets may separate from the water phase of the plume and rise to the surface independently. The gas may dissolve in the ambient water and/or form gas hydrates––a solid state of water resembling ice. All these processes will tend to deprive the plume as such of buoyancy, and in stratified water the plume rise will soon terminate. Slick formation will be governed by the surfacing of individual oil droplets in a depth and time variable current. This situation differs from the conditions observed during oil-and-gas blowouts in shallow and moderate water depths. In such cases, the bubble plume has been observed to rise to the surface and form a strong radial flow that contributes to a rapid spreading of the surfacing oil. The theories and behaviors involved in deepwater blowout cases are reviewed and compared to those for the shallow water blowout cases.     

Bayesian analysis of stage–fall–discharge models for gauging stations affected by variable backwater

Parsimonious stage–fall–discharge rating curve models for gauging stations subject to backwater complications are developed from simple hydraulic theory. The rating curve models are compounded in order to allow for possible shifts in the hydraulics when variable backwater becomes effective. The models provide a prior scientific understanding through the relationship between the rating curve parameters and the hydraulic properties of the channel section under study. This characteristic enables prior distributions for the rating curve parameters to be easily elicited according to site‐specific information and the magnitude of well‐known hydraulic quantities. Posterior results from three Norwegian and one American twin‐gauge stations affected by variable backwater are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian rating curve assessment is appropriate for developing rating procedures for gauging stations that are subject to variable backwater. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of anisotropic heterogeneous near-well flow using MPFA methods on flexible grids

Control-volume multipoint flux approximations (MPFA) are discussed for the simulation of complex near-well flow using geometrically flexible grids. Due to the strong non-linearity of the near-well flow, a linear model will, in general, be inefficient. Instead, a model accounting for the logarithmic pressure behavior in the well vicinity is advocated. This involves a non-uniform refinement of the grid in the radial direction. The model accounts for both near-well anisotropies and heterogeneities. For a full simulation involving multiple wells, this single-well approach can easily be coupled with the reservoir model. Numerical simulations demonstrate the convergence behavior of this model using various MPFA schemes under different near-well conditions for single-phase flow regimes. Two-phase simulations support the results of the single-phase simulations.     

Correction to: Sea-state contributions to sea-level variability in the European Seas

Ocean Dynamics - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-020-01434-9     

Simulating stochastically excited oscillations: The mode lifetime of ξ Hya

The discovery of solar-like oscillations in the giant star ξ Hya (G7 III) was reported by Frandsen et al. (2002). Their frequency analysis was very limited due to alias problems in the data set (caused by single-site observations). The extent to which the aliasing affected their analysis was unclear due to the unknown damping time of the stellar oscillation modes. In this paper we describe a simulator created to generate time series of stochastically excited oscillations, which takes as input an arbitrary window function and includes both white and non-white noise. We also outline a new method to compare a large number of simulated time series with an observed time series to determine the damping time, amplitude, and limited information on the degree of the stochastically excited modes. For ξ Hya we find the most likely amplitude to be ∼ 2 m s⁻¹, in good agreement with theory (Houdek and Gough, 2002), and the most likely damping time to be ∼ 2 days, which is much shorter than the theoretical value of 15–20 days calculated by Houdek and Gough (2002).     

Filament activation and magnetic reconnection

Solar Physics - A curved filament in a decaying active region (AR&;nbsp;8329) was observed on 9 September 1998 with a combination of several instruments. The main data base is a 4-hour long time...     

Challenges in global ballast water management

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied.