Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.     

Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century

Five simple indices of surface temperature are used to investigate the influence of anthropogenic and natural (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol) forcing on observed climate change during the twentieth century. These indices are based on spatial fingerprints of climate change and include the global-mean surface temperature, the land-ocean temperature contrast, the magnitude of the annual cycle in surface temperature over land, the Northern Hemisphere meridional temperature gradient and the hemispheric temperature contrast. The indices contain information independent of variations in global-mean temperature for unforced climate variations and hence, considered collectively, they are more useful in an attribution study than global mean surface temperature alone. Observed linear trends over 1950–1999 in all the indices except the hemispheric temperature contrast are significantly larger than simulated changes due to internal variability or natural (solar and volcanic aerosol) forcings and are consistent with simulated changes due to anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcing. The combined, relative influence of these different forcings on observed trends during the twentieth century is investigated using linear regression of the observed and simulated responses of the indices. It is found that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the observed changes in surface temperature during 1946–1995. We found that early twentieth century changes (1896–1945) in global mean temperature can be explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing, as well as internal climate variability. Estimates of scaling factors that weight the amplitude of model simulated signals to corresponding observed changes using a combined normalized index are similar to those calculated using more complex, optimal fingerprint techniques.     

Community volunteer assessment of recreational water quality in the Hutt River,Wellington

ABSTRACT

Water is an important component of many recreational opportunities and New Zealand invests significant resources in recreational water quality (RWQ) monitoring to assess risks to public health. However, monitoring primarily focuses on microbiological hazards and RWQ is considerably broader than this. The goal of this study was to take a comprehensive approach to evaluating RWQ while exploring the potential for greater public involvement in monitoring. A popular river swimming site was co-monitored weekly by volunteers and a council field officer. The attributes monitored–water temperature, visual clarity, benthic cyanobacteria and filamentous periphyton cover, E. coli and rubbish–were identified from a volunteer workshop. There was good concordance between volunteer and council data suggesting that volunteer measurements can be considered reliable. This highlights the potential for volunteers, with professional support, including training and quality assurance, to extend council RWQ surveillance to additional monitoring sites while improving public engagement on water management.     

Organochlorine contaminant exposure and associations with hematological and humoral immune functional assays with dam age as a factor in free-ranging northern fur seal pups (Callorhinus ursinus)

Potential effects of organochlorine contaminant (OC) exposure on humoral immune function and health of free-ranging northern fur seals were investigated. Forty-two "neonates" were captured for blood sample collection and re-sampled as "pups" 29-51 days later. OCs were extracted from whole blood to identify polychlorinated biphenyl congeners and chlorinated pesticides by high performance liquid chromatography. Humoral immune function was assessed by antibody responses to vaccination and immunoglobulin concentrations. Additional health status indicators included leukocyte counts and haptoglobin concentrations. Mean OC concentrations were higher in neonates than at recapture. Neonates of young dams had higher mean OC concentrations than neonates of older dams. A higher proportion of old dam's pups developed a twofold or greater increase in antigen-specific antibodies compared to young dam's pups. Higher OC exposure and poor immune responses in first-born pups may indicate a higher risk of secondary morbidity and mortality than pups of multiparous dams.     

Synoptic and mesoscale controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation in the western United States

We present a new event-scale catalog of stable isotopic measurements from 5?years of storm events at 4 sites in southern California, which is used to understand the storm to storm controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation and validate the event-scale performance of an isotope-enabled GCM simulation (IsoGSM) (Yoshimura et?al. 2008). These analyses are motivated to improve the interpretation of proxy records from this region and provide guidance in testing the skill of GCMs in reproducing the hydrological variability in the western US. We find that approximately 40% of event-scale isotopic variability arises from the percentage of precipitation that is convective and the near surface relative humidity in the days prior to the storms landfall. The additional isotopic variability arises from the fact that storms arriving from different source regions advect moisture of distinct isotopic compositions. We show using both field correlation and Lagrangian trajectory analysis that the advection of subtropical and tropical moisture is important in producing the most isotopically enriched precipitation. The isotopic catalog is then used along with satellite-derived δD retrievals of atmospheric moisture to benchmark the performance of the IsoGSM model for the western US. The model is able to successfully replicate the observed isotopic variability suggesting that it is closely reproducing the moisture transport and storm track dynamics that drive the large storm-to-storm isotopic range. Notably, we find that an increase in moisture flux from the central tropical Pacific leads to a convergence of isotopically enriched water vapor in the subtropics and consequently an increase in δ¹⁸O of precipitation at sites along the entire west coast. Changes in poleward moisture flux from the central Tropical Pacific have important implications for both the global hydrological cycle and regional precipitation amounts and we suggest such changes can be captured through instrumental and proxy-reconstruction of the spatiotemporal isotopic patterns in the precipitation along the west coast of the US.     

Probable causes of late twentieth century tropospheric temperature trends

We assess the most probable causes of late twentieth century (1960–1994) tropospheric temperature changes. Optimal detection techniques are used to compare observed spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface and tropospheric temperature change with results from experiments performed with two different versions of the Hadley Centre climate model. We detect anthropogenic forcings, particularly well-mixed greenhouse-gases, with a less certain sulfate aerosol cooling influence. More limited evidence exists for a detectable volcanic influence. Our principal results do not depend upon the choice of model. Both models, but particularly HadCM3, appear to overestimate the simulated climate response to greenhouse gases (especially at the surface) and volcanoes. This result may arise, at least in part, due to errors in the forcings (especially sulfate) and technical details of our approach, which differs from previous studies. We use corrected and uncorrected versions of the radiosonde record to assess sensitivity of our detection results to observational uncertainties. We find that previous corrections applied to the radiosonde temperature record are likely to have been sub-optimal in only taking into account temporal consistency. However, the choice of corrected or uncorrected version has no systematic effect upon our main conclusions. We show that both models are potentially internally consistent explanations of observed tropospheric temperatures.     

A comparison of stream bank erosion processes on forested and moorland streams in the Balquhidder Catchments,central Scotland

Stream bank erosion rates measured over a two-year period on a moorland and a forested stream in the Institute of Hydrology's Balquhidder Paired Catchments in central Scotland were compared. Bank erosion rates are generally higher on the mainstream of the moorland catchment and highest in wintger on both streams. Bank erosion is correlated with the incidence of frost: minimum temperatures measured on stream banks of the forested stream were an average of 3·7°C higher than on stream banks both outside the forest and on the moorland stream. This makes the incidence of frost on forested stream banks half as frequent. Volumes of material eroded from the mainstreams were combined with bulk density measurements and it is estimated that erosion of the mainstream banks is contributing 1·5 and 7·3 per cent of the sediment yield of the forested and moorland catchments, respectively. Analysis of the vertical distribution of erosion on the banks of both streams suggests an undercutting mechanism which is more pronounced in the moorland stream. The influence of trees on bank erosion and possible implications for the management of forest streams are discussed. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast-track attribution assessments based on pre-computed estimates of changes in the odds of warm extremes

Climate Dynamics - Regional warming due to anthropogenic influence on the climate is expected to increase the frequency of very warm years and seasons. The growing research area of extreme event...