Multimodel ranking and inference in ground water modeling

Uncertainty of hydrogeologic conditions makes it important to consider alternative plausible models in an effort to evaluate the character of a ground water system, maintain parsimony, and make predictions with reasonable definition of their uncertainty. When multiple models are considered, data collection and analysis focus on evaluation of which model(s) is(are) most supported by the data. Generally, more than one model provides a similar acceptable fit to the observations; thus, inference should be made from multiple models. Kullback-Leibler (K-L) information provides a rigorous foundation for model inference that is simple to compute, is easy to interpret, selects parsimonious models, and provides a more realistic measure of precision than evaluation of any one model or evaluation based on other commonly referenced model selection criteria. These alternative criteria strive to identify the true (or quasi-true) model, assume it is represented by one of the models in the set, and given their preference for parsimony regardless of the available number of observations the selected model may be underfit. This is in sharp contrast to the K-L information approach, where models are considered to be approximations to reality, and it is expected that more details of the system will be revealed when more data are available. We provide a simple, computer-generated example to illustrate the procedure for multimodel inference based on K-L information and present arguments, based on statistical underpinnings that have been overlooked with time, that its theoretical basis renders it preferable to other approaches.     

Experimental hearths and the thermal alteration of Caliche on the Southern High Plains

Throughout the Holocene, caliche has been a ubiquitous technological resource for the people of the Southern High Plains. Archaeological sites on the Southern High Plains often contain thermal features that appear to utilize caliche nodules in various cultural processes. These processes usually involve some degree of thermal dynamic alteration to the caliche, identified in the archaeological record as fire‐scorched or blackened nodules. Previous studies of the pyrodynamic properties of caliche have focused on quantification of color and fracture patterns within a laboratory setting, without direct involvement of cultural processes or problems associated with thermal features. Thermal alteration variables of caliche are examined from an actualistic perspective, utilizing previously excavated basin feature geometry and local caliche outcrops. Results indicate that sustained, intense heating of caliche (above 204°C) causes significant, but variable, structural transformations at the specimen level. The experimental use of shallow basin hearths demonstrates that hearth structures were easily capable of achieving and sustaining temperatures that would result in the physical alteration of individual caliche nodules, defined here as hearthstones. The broader implications of this study suggest that the interpretation of archaeological hearthstone assemblages should reflect variability, as observed during this experiment. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Utopia/Isidis overlap: Possible conduit for mud volcanism on Mars

The largest areal concentration of pitted cones on Mars is located in the southwest section of Utopia basin. This particular area of pitted cones has been attributed to mud volcanism; several factors may have facilitated extensive mud volcanism at this location. The concentration of pitted cones is located where Utopia basin intersects Isidis basin; both features are multi-ring impact basins. On Earth, seismic investigations have shown that the outer rings of the Chicxulub multi-ring impact basin extend to the Mohorovi?i? discontinuity (Moho). If this is true on Mars as well, the fractures could act as conduits for water from Utopia Planitia, the site of a large, putative water body. It has been shown that methane can be generated at the mantle on Earth. On Mars this possible source of methane could combine with the infiltrated water to generate clathrates. While methane is not currently being released at the location of the pitted cones it could have been in the past. Three locations of methane release have been observed on Mars, two of which are located on the same outer ring of Isidis basin that intersects the pitted cone population. The area of Utopia basin that contains the large population of pitted cones is adjacent to the highland/lowland boundary where extensive deposition would have occurred. Extensive deposition combined with the potential for methane release may have contributed to the large population of pitted cones in this area of the Utopia basin.     

Geochronology and Landscape Development Along the Middle Río Quequén Grande at the Paso Otero Locality,Pampa Interserrana,Argentina

The Paso Otero Locality is a cluster of archaeological sites within the middle Río Quequén Grande basin located in the northern coastal plain of Argentina. The valley fill is Holocene alluvial, eolian, and palustrine sediment, including the top of the Guerrero Member (∼10,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), upper Río Salado Member (∼3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.), and lower La Postrera Formation (∼2400 ¹⁴C yr B.P.). Regional soils include the Puesto Callejón Viejo (10,000 to 9400 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) and the Puesto Berrondo (∼4800 ¹⁴C yr B.P.). Radiocarbon sampling of buried A‐horizons on both sides of the river produced 17 dates considered reliable. The geoarchaeological information allows exploration of the implications for the formation of the archaeological record. Similar geological processes of differential intensity have resulted in contexts of different archaeological resolution and integrity. The Paso Otero Locality provides both a local and regional view of late Quaternary events and processes for the middle basin of the Río Quequén Grande.     

Last glacial maximum environments in northwestern Patagonia revealed by fossil small mammals

Comparisons of historical and modern assemblages of mammals can yield important insights into patterns and processes of environmental change. Here, we present the first analyses of small mammal assemblages present in northern Patagonia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Using remains obtained from owl pellets excavated from an archeological cave site (Arroyo Corral I, levels VII–V, carbon dates of 22,400–21,530 cal yr BP), we generate estimates of the minimum number of individuals for all species detected; these estimates, in turn are used to determine relative species abundances. Comparisons of these data with similar analyses of small mammal remains obtained from a second archeological site (ACoII, levels IV–V, carbon dates of 10,010–9220 cal yr BP) as well as from modern owl pellets reveal pronounced changes in relative species abundance since the LGM. In particular, Euneomys chinchilloides and Ctenomys sociabilis – the predominant species during the LGM – declined markedly, suggesting a change from open, bare habitat punctuated by patches of wet meadows and shrubs to the more densely vegetated mosaic of ecotone habitats found in this region today. These data provide important new insights into the environmental changes that have occurred in northern Patagonia over the last 20,000 years.     

UCODE反演程序的原理及应用

对地下水模型进行反演是模拟过程中的一个必要步骤,使用反演程序自动校正模型可快速确定最佳拟合的参数值,分析参数对模拟结果的敏感性,比人工试算-调整法更为优越。UCODE是一款被广泛应用的地下水模型反演程序,它使用高斯牛顿法进行参数优化,反演结果对参数初值有一定的依赖性。通过建立假想的非稳定流模型,进行6组数值试验,验证了UCODE程序的实用性。尽管参数的初始取值会影响反演的进程,但只要取值适当,UCODE就能实现优化参数的目的。