Observational and predictive uncertainties for multiple variables in a spatially distributed hydrological model

In this study, uncertainty in model input data (precipitation) and parameters is propagated through a physically based, spatially distributed hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE code. Precipitation uncertainty is accounted for using an ensemble of daily rainfall fields that incorporate four different sources of uncertainty, whereas parameter uncertainty is considered using Latin hypercube sampling. Model predictive uncertainty is assessed for multiple simulated hydrological variables (discharge, groundwater head, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture). Utilizing an extensive set of observational data, effective observational uncertainties for each hydrological variable are assessed. Considering not only model predictive uncertainty but also effective observational uncertainty leads to a notable increase in the number of instances, for which model simulation and observations are in good agreement (e.g., 47% vs. 91% for discharge and 0% vs. 98% for soil moisture). Effective observational uncertainty is in several cases larger than model predictive uncertainty. We conclude that the use of precipitation uncertainty with a realistic spatio‐temporal correlation structure, analyses of multiple variables with different spatial support, and the consideration of observational uncertainty are crucial for adequately evaluating the performance of physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models.     

The extension of the Late Weichselian/Late Devensian ice sheets in the North Sea Basin

The distribution of large channel-like features, comprising Weichselian/Devensian incisions, in the western North Sea provides evidence for a much larger extension of the last ice sheet than currently assumed. Morphological comparison of the incisions with those in North Germany and Poland reveals a striking similarity in shape and distribution. The features on the North Sea floor are interpreted as being formed by meltwater erosion within the margin of the ice sheet. The widespread absence of Weichselian/Devensian till in the area under consideration may be attributed to later erosion. Large-scale reworking and redistribution of sediments is indicated by the complete sediment infill of the majority of the incisions.     

The utopia of the binational city

Kerkrade and Herzogenrath, on the German-Dutch border, look back at a common past in the former Land of Rode. This ceased to exist in 1815 when the border was drawn between Prussia and The Netherlands. Since then the people turned their backs to each other more and more and started orientating towards their own nation state. Only after the dramatic nationalism of World War II subsided, did the border loose some of its dividing effects on political and social life. Unification processes of the European Union strengthened this, and the rapprochement between Kerkrade and Herzogenrath has become so intensive that they present themselves as one town: Eurode. The identification of both towns as one territorial, institutional and social entity was and is essential for the success of Eurode. Yet, creating a feeling of 'we-ness' is not enough if the actions and thoughts of the inhabitants do not match this feeling. This article therefore deals with the different stages of cross border integration necessary before one can speak of a 'binational city'. The question remains open however, whether the binational city can ever be more than Utopia. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Combining cosmogenic nuclides and major elements from moraine soil profiles to improve weathering rate estimates

Previous studies of chemical weathering rates for soil developed on glacial moraines generally assumed little or no physical erosion of the soil surface. In this study, we investigate the influence of physical erosion on soil profile weathering rate calculations. The calculation of chemical weathering rates is based on the assumption that soil profiles represent the integrated amount of weathering since the time of moraine deposition. The weathering rate of a surface subjected to denudation is the sum of the weathering loss from the existing soil profile added to the weathering loss in the material removed by denudation, divided by the deposition age. In this study, the amount of weathered material removed since moraine deposition is calculated using the denudation rate estimated from cosmogenic nuclide data and the deposition age of the moraine. Weathering rates accounting for denudation since moraine deposition are compared to weathering rates based on the assumption of no physical erosion and on the assumption of steady-state denudation for the Type Pinedale moraine ( 21 ka) and the Bull Lake-age moraine ( 140 ka) in the Fremont Lake Area (Wind River Mountains, Wyoming, USA). The total weathering rates accounting for denudation are 8.15 ± 1.05 g_(oxide) m^− 2 y^− 1 for the Type Pinedale moraine and 4.78 ± 0.89 g_(oxide) m^− 2 y^− 1 for the Bull Lake-age moraine, which are  2 to 4 times higher, respectively, than weathering rates based on the assumption of no physical erosion. The weathering rates based on denudation since moraine deposition are comparable or smaller than weathering rates assuming steady-state denudation. We find the assumption of steady-state denudation is not valid in depositional landscapes with young deposition ages or slow denudation rates. The decrease in weathering rates over time between the Type Pinedale and Bull Lake-age soils that is observed in the case of no physical erosion is decreased when the influence of denudation on the total weathering rates is taken into account. Fresh unweathered material with high reactive mineral surface area is continuously provided to the surface layer by denudation diminishing the effect of decreasing weathering rate over time.     

Deciphering topographic signals of glaciation and rock uplift in an active orogen: a case study from the Olympic Mountains,USA

Estimating recent patterns of erosion and rock uplift within Cenozoic orogens has proven difficult as signals of these processes have been obfuscated by Plio‐Pleistocene glaciation. The topography of many mountain ranges integrates the effects of long‐lived rock uplift, Late‐Cenozoic climate variation, and post‐glacial landscape adjustment. In this study, we employ a suite of topographic analyses to study the relief of an active mountain range on a sub‐catchment scale in an effort to the separate the long‐term signal of rock uplift from perturbations due to shorter‐lived climate signals. We focus on the Olympic Mountains, USA, where patterns of exhumation and glaciation have been previously estimated; however, our methods and results are broadly applicable to other orogens. Our analysis shows that Plio‐Pleistocene alpine glaciers and the Cordilleran Ice Sheet have reduced the elevations of channel profiles and created anomalously low channel relief in the Olympic Mountains. Large low‐gradient areas formed at lower elevations where ice sheets were present and alpine glaciers widened and deepened valleys. In the more rugged core of the range, near‐threshold hillslopes along the margins of the oversteepened glacially‐carved valleys, dominate the range. This implies a strong Plio‐Pleistocene glacial climate control on the topography over the more recent evolution of the Olympic Mountains. However, the broad relief structure of the range appears to still record the regional rock uplift pattern and is suggestive of an east‐plunging antiform, consistent with folding of the subducting plate or underplating of accreted rocks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大别山中生代钾质岩浆作用与超高压变质地体的剥露机理

在已知的超高压变质地体中, 大别山是碰撞后花岗岩类侵入作用最为强烈的唯一地区。这里, 中生代的钾玄岩系列和高钾钙碱性系列的侵入岩, 可以依其年龄和组成特征划分为３ 组。第 Ｉ组, 主要由晚三叠世 （约２１０ Ｍａ） 二长闪长岩辉长岩体组成, 它可能是在板片断离过程中富集的大陆岩石圈地幔部分熔融的产物 （板片断离型）; 第 Ｉ Ｉ组, 由中侏罗世－ 早白垩世 （１６０～１２０ Ｍａ） 的角闪石英二长岩、黑云母二长花岗岩和正长花岗岩组成, 主要是由幔源岩浆的分离结晶与地壳混染共同作用的产物 （岩浆底垫型）; 第 Ｉ Ｉ Ｉ组, 以白垩纪 （１２５～９５ Ｍａ） 的花岗岩和花岗斑岩为代表, 是在热穹窿作用过程中大别杂岩深熔作用和高度演化的产物 （穹窿型）。大别山超高压变质岩通过地幔的剥露可能与晚三叠世—早侏罗世的板片断离有关, 而大规模的岩浆侵位与超高压变质岩的快速剥露相伴出现说明, 岩浆底垫和岩浆漂浮作用可能在大别山中侏罗世—早白垩世的快速剥露中发挥了重要作用。     

Paleo-bathymetry of the northern North Atlantic and consequences for the opening of the Fram Strait

In the past decade, the geophysical database in the northern North Atlantic and central Arctic Ocean constantly grew. Though far from being complete, the information from new aeromagnetic and seismic data north of the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone and in the Arctic Ocean, in combination with existing compiled geological and geophysical data, is used to produce paleo-bathymetric maps for several Cenozoic time intervals. This paleo-bathymetric model provides evidence for an initial deep-water exchange through the Fram Strait starting around 17 Ma. Furthermore, the model suggests that crustal rifting prior to initial seafloor spreading might have facilitated an earlier deep-water connection. This confirms that the paleo-topography of the Yermak Plateau played an important role in allowing at least the exchange of shallow water between the northern North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean before the opening of the deep-water Fram Strait gateway. In the south of the research area the paleo-bathymetric model indicates that the first possibility for a deep-water overflow from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea to the North Atlantic could have been between 15 and 20 Ma.