Determination and application of the weights for landslide susceptibility mapping using an artificial neural network

The purpose of this study is the development, application, and assessment of probability and artificial neural network methods for assessing landslide susceptibility in a chosen study area. As the basic analysis tool, a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for spatial data management and manipulation. Landslide locations and landslide-related factors such as slope, curvature, soil texture, soil drainage, effective thickness, wood type, and wood diameter were used for analyzing landslide susceptibility. A probability method was used for calculating the rating of the relative importance of each factor class to landslide occurrence. For calculating the weight of the relative importance of each factor to landslide occurrence, an artificial neural network method was developed. Using these methods, the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) was calculated using the rating and weight, and a landslide susceptibility map was produced using the index. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis, with and without weights, were confirmed from comparison with the landslide location data. The comparison result with weighting was better than the results without weighting. The calculated weight and rating can be used to landslide susceptibility mapping.     

Long-term bed load transport rate based on aerial-photo and ground penetrating radar surveys of fan-delta growth, Coast Mountains, British Columbia

Sequential aerial photography, sonar bathymetry, ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and sediment sampling and analysis provide the basis for calculating the volumetric and mass rate of progradation of the delta of Fitzsimmons Creek, a steep, high-energy, debris-flow-dominated channel draining about 100 km² of the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Fitzsimmons Creek is typical of small mountain rivers in the region. GPR imaging is used to define the pre-depositional morphology of the receiving basin, a technique that improves the accuracy of the volumetric survey. The 52-year record (1947–1999) of progradation yielded an average annual volumetric transport rate of 1.00±0.16×10⁴ m³ year⁻¹ for bed load, corresponding to a mass transport rate of 1.60±0.28×10⁴ Mg year⁻¹. Bed load yields are consistent with those obtained in hydrogeomorphically similar basins in the region and elsewhere. Decade-based annual rates, which vary from 0.64±0.11×10⁴ to 2.85±0.38×10⁴ Mg year⁻¹, provide poor estimates of the 52-year average. Indeed, the 52-year record may also not be long enough to fully integrate the significant fluctuations in the sediment efflux from Fitzsimmons Creek. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other comparable mountain environments worldwide.     

Polygonal grain‐based distinct element modeling for mechanical behavior of brittle rock

The microstructure of rock was numerically reproduced by a polygonal grain‐based model, and its mechanical behavior was examined by performing the uniaxial compression test and Brazilian tests via the Universal Distinct Element Code. The numerical results of the model demonstrated good agreement with the experimental results obtained with rock specimens in terms of the stress–strain behavior, strength characteristics, and brittle fracture phenomenon. An encouraging result is that the grain‐based model‐Universal Distinct Element Code model can reproduce a low ratio of tensile to compressive strength of 1/20 to 1/10 without the need for an additional process. This finding is ascribed to the fact that the geometrical features of polygons can effectively capture the effects of angularity, finite rotation, and interlocking of grains that exist in reality. A numerical methodology to monitor the evolution of micro‐cracks was developed, which enabled us to examine the progressive process of the failure and distinguish the contribution of tensile cracking to the process from that of shear cracking. From the observations of the micro‐cracking process in reference to the stress–strain relation, crack initiation stress, and crack damage stress, it can be concluded that the failure process of the model closely resembles the microscopic observations of rock. We also carried out a parametric study to examine the relationships between the microscopic properties and the macroscopic behavior of the model. Depending on the micro‐properties, the model exhibited a variety of responses to the external load in terms of the strength and deformation characteristics, the evolution of micro‐cracks, and the post‐peak behavior. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Rock of Gibraltar re‐visited

Gibraltar, a 6km² peninsula jutting south from Spain at the western entrance to the Mediterranean Sea, is dominated by its 424 m‐high Rock: famous as a landmark to seafarers since ancient times. Twenty‐five years ago, an article in Geology Today (1991, v.7, pp.95–101) interpreted the Rock as a partly overturned mass of Early Jurassic dolomitic limestone, thrust into position during continent–continent collision about 15–20 million years before present and shaped finally by shoreline processes active during Quaternary tectonic uplift. Later articles featured the complex of tunnels and chambers excavated between 1782 and 1968 by British military engineers within its 2.6 km‐long main ridge (1992, v.8, pp.92–98), and the Neanderthals known to have used some of its caves (1997, v.13, pp.179–184). Significant aspects of the Rock's geological history have clarified since then.     

Recent progress on combining geomorphological and geochronological data with ice sheet modelling,demonstrated using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

Palaeo-ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model-based approaches. To achieve this goal, model-data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice-flow direction and flow-switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice-free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.     

Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Development of large‐scale seismites in Upper Cretaceous fluvial sandstones in a fault‐proximal setting

Large‐scale soft‐sediment deformation structures occur within fluvial sandstone bodies of the Upper Cretaceous Wahweap Formation in the Kaiparowits basin, southern Utah, USA. These structures represent an exceptional example of metre‐scale fault‐proximal, seismogenic load structures in nearly homogenous sandstones. The load structures consist of two types: large‐scale load casts and wedge‐shaped load structures. Large‐scale load casts penetrate up to 4·5 m into the underlying sandstone bed. Wedge‐shaped load structures include metre‐scale, parallel, sub‐vertical features and decimetre‐scale features along the periphery of the large‐scale load casts or other wedge‐shaped load structures. Wedge‐shaped load structures contain well‐developed, medial cataclastic shear deformation bands. All load structures contain pervasive well‐defined millimetre‐thick to centimetre‐thick internal laminae, oriented parallel to the outside form of the load structures and asymptotic to deformation bands. Both types of load structures formed because of an inverted density profile, earthquake‐triggered liquefaction and growth of irregularities (a Rayleigh–Taylor instability) on the sandstone–sandstone erosional contact. The internal laminae and deformation bands formed during deformation and clearly demonstrate polyphase deformation, recording a transition from liquefied to hydroplastic to brittle modes of deformation. Decimetre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures on the edge of the large‐scale load casts probably formed towards the end of a seismic event after the sediment dewatered and increased the frictional contact of grains enough to impart strength to the sands. Metre‐scale wedge‐shaped load structures were created as the tips of downward foundering sediments were driven into fractures, which widened incrementally with seismic pulsation. With each widening of the fracture, gravity and a suction effect would draw additional sediment into the fracture. Superimposed laminae indicate a secondary syndeformational origin for internal laminae, probably by flow‐generated shearing and vibrofluidization mechanisms. Large‐scale and wedge‐shaped load structures, polyphase deformation and secondary laminae may characterize soft‐sediment deformation in certain fault‐proximal settings.