Land snails from the last glacial maximum on Andikithira,southern Greece and their palaeoclimatic implications

An assemblage of land snails from an aeolianite deposit on the coast of the southern Greek island of Andikithira is shown to date to 16 000 yr BP and thus represents the period of the last glacial maximum (LGM; Oxygen Isotope Stage 2). The assemblage has no modern analogue. Five of the ten species are extinct on the island and some of these now live only at high elevations (> 950 m). Significantly cooler temperatures, some 5-8°C below present, and slightly drier moisture conditions (lower rainfall, partially offset by reduced evapotranspiration at the lower temperature) are inferred. The large temperature depression at the LGM, well documented in northern and central Europe, extended also to the Mediterranean climate of southern Europe. Late Quaternary climatic changes had a considerable impact on the fauna of this isolated island.     

Cosmological parameter estimation and the spectral index from inflation

Accurate estimation of cosmological parameters from microwave background anisotropies requires high-accuracy understanding of the cosmological model. Normally, a power-law spectrum of density perturbations is assumed, in which case the spectral index n can be measured to around ± 0.004 using microwave anisotropy satellites such as MAP Planck . However, inflationary models generically predict that the spectral index n of the density perturbation spectrum will be scale-dependent. We carry out a detailed investigation of the measurability of this scale dependence by Planck , including the influence of polarization on the parameter estimation. We also estimate the increase in the uncertainty in all other parameters if the scale dependence has to be included. This increase applies even if the scale dependence is too small to be measured, unless it is assumed absent. We study the implications for inflation models, beginning with a brief examination of the generic slow-roll inflation situation, and then move to a detailed examination of a recently devised hybrid inflation model for which the scale dependence of n may be observable.     

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.     

Larval Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasi) Survival in Suspended Sediment

Pacific herring early life stages provide good model systems for studying effects of suspended sediments on estuarine organisms. To investigate effects on the herring larval stage, we used environmentally relevant particle concentrations for San Francisco Bay (200?C400?mg/L of particles <50???m in size) and exposure times of 16?h in a novel two-pump sediment suspension mesocosm. There were no mortalities during the 16-h suspended sediment incubation. Following sediment exposure, larvae were cultured in sediment-free water for up to 10?days during which survival and condition were measured. None were affected by previous sediment treatment. Four criteria for larval condition included growth, heart rate, prey capture, and critical swimming velocity. These results provide a framework for implementing regulatory decisions on anthropogenic activities such as dredging.     

Asymmetry in an uneven place: migrants’ lifestyles,social capital,and self-rated health status in James Town,Accra

This exploratory study examines how migrants’ lifestyles are associated with subjective assessment of their health status in a relatively poor urban neighborhood in Accra. For more than half a century, urban centers have been on the receiving end of internal migrants in Ghana with Accra, Kumasi, and Sekondi-Takoradi receiving the lion’s share. However, a lot of migrants end up in poor neighborhoods due to inability to afford relatively costly rents in the better residential areas in the cities. Migrants who live on the margins of society are adversely impacted by poor environmental conditions that make them susceptible to environmentally-induced diseases such as malaria, cholera, and typhoid. While the poverty, health, and place research in Accra, Ghana, have focused on spatial distribution of inequalities in health, burden of sexual ill health, double burden of diseases, environment, wealth and health relationship, as well as income and health connections, there is paucity of research on association between the daily lifestyles of migrants in poor urban neighborhoods and their health status. Specifically on lifestyle and contextual factors, we examine (1) eating and drinking behavior, (2) perception of environmental factors, (3) attitudes and practices during illnesses, and (4) physical activities. Results from Ordinal Logit Regression models suggest that the key predictors of self-rated health status are: (1) socio-demographic elements like length of stay, job type, and religiosity; and (2) eating and drinking behavior—frequency of buying food from food vendors, and (3) social capital.     

New lacewings (Insecta: Neuroptera) from the Lower Cretaceous Wealden supergroup of Southern England

Eight new genera and thirteen new species of lacewings (Neuroptera) are described from the Lower Cretaceous Wealden Supergroup, Weald Sub-basin: Principiala rudgwickensis sp. nov. (Ithonidae), Stenomylina medialis gen. et sp. nov., Protosmylina bifasciata gen. et sp. nov. (Osmylidae), Cretapsychops corami gen. et sp. nov., Micropsychops parallelus gen. et sp. nov., Valdipsychops logunovi gen. et sp. nov., V. brigidae gen. et sp. nov., V. maculosus gen. et sp. nov., V. proudlovei gen. et sp. nov., V. minimus gen. et sp. nov., Psychopsites rolandi gen. et sp. nov. (Psychopsidae), Actinophlebioides valdensis gen. et sp. nov. and Protohemerobius perexiguus gen. et sp. nov. (Neuroptera familia incertae sedis). Psychopsidae are shown to dominate the neuropteran fauna, while the presence of Brongniartiellidae has not been confirmed in the Wealden, due to previously thought representatives of this family being in fact psychopsids. This is the first fossil record of Ithonidae and Osmylidae in Britain. The range of Kalligrammatidae has been extended in the Cretaceous of Britain from the mid-Valanginian to early Barremian.     

Effect of hydrocarbon production on reflection amplitude properties of reservoirs—a case study of Kov Field,Niger Delta,Nigeria

A better understanding of how hydrocarbons and other fluids such as brine move in the reservoirs within the Kov Field will enable the improved application of secondary recovery methods such as water and gas injections and also highlight areas within the field that have remaining hydrocarbons. This work focuses on the two major sandstone reservoir intervals, the AG-I and the AG-II all within the Agbada Formation, since they showed prominent amplitude changes. In the AG-I Formation, the results obtained from the production data and rock physics modeling show an increase in the amplitude impedance (AI) contrast around injection wells and a decrease in AI contrast around production wells due to fluid replacement, and it also deals with the pressure changes in correlation to the water injection performed to maintain the reservoir pressure, while in the AG-II Formation, the effect of hydrocarbon production serves to visualize and map the oil-water contact (OWC) as it evolves with the production time; the OWC is not observable on later seismic vintages because the reservoir drops below the OWC. Conclusively, the effect of hydrocarbon production throughout the reservoir and across the entire Field would be beneficial in mapping fluid changes in the Kov Field, which can be utilized for enhanced oil recovery and improved reservoir management.     

Near-future changes in storm surges along the Atlantic Iberian coast

Natural Hazards - Decadal predictions bridge the gap between the short-term weather/seasonal forecasts and the long-term climate projections. They target the reproduction of large-scale weather...     

Estimating Injury and Loss of Life in Floods: A Deterministic Framework

This paper presents an outline methodology and an operational framework for assessing and mapping the risk of death or serious harm to people from flooding, covering death and physical injuries as a direct and immediate consequence of deep and/or fast flowing floodwaters (usually by drowning), and deaths and physical injuries associated with the flood event (but occurring in the immediate aftermath). The main factors that affect death or injury to people during floods include flow velocity, flow depth, and the degree to which people are exposed to the flood. The exposure potential is related to such factors as the “suddenness” of flooding (and amount of flood warning), the extent of the floodplain, people’s location on the floodplain, and the character of their accommodation. In addition, risks to people are affected by social factors including their vulnerability and behaviour. A methodology is described for estimating the likely annual number of deaths/injuries. This is based on defining zones of different flood hazard and, for each zone, estimating the total number of people located there, the proportion that are likely to be exposed to a flood, and the proportion of those exposed who are likely to be injured or killed during a flood event. The results for each zone are combined to give an overall risk for each flood cell and/or community. The objective of the research reported here is to develop a method which could be applied using a map-based approach in which flood risks to people are calculated and displayed spatially for selected areas or communities. The information needed for each part of the process is described in the paper, and the further research to provide the required information is identified.     

Improved Method for Estimating Reaction Rates During Push-Pull Tests

The breakthrough curve obtained from a single-well push-pull test can be adjusted to account for dilution of the injection fluid in the aquifer fluid. The dilution-adjusted breakthrough curve can be analyzed to estimate the reaction rate of a solute. The conventional dilution-adjusted method assumes that the ratios of the concentrations of the nonreactive and reactive solutes in the injection fluid vs. the aquifer fluid are equal. If this assumption is invalid, the conventional method will generate inaccurate breakthrough curves and may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the reactivity of a solute. In this study, a new method that generates a dilution-adjusted breakthrough curve was theoretically developed to account for any possible combination of nonreactive and reactive solute concentrations in the injection and aquifer fluids. The newly developed method was applied to a field-based data set and was shown to generate more accurate dilution-adjusted breakthrough curves. The improved dilution-adjusted method presented here is simple, makes no assumptions regarding the concentrations of the nonreactive and reactive solutes in the injection and aquifer fluids, and easily allows for estimating reaction rates during push-pull tests.