VLBI observations of high-opacity HI gas in NGC 5793

We report on observations, with sub-parsec resolution, of neutral hydrogen seen in absorption in the λ=21 cm line against the nucleus of the active spiral galaxy NGC 5793. The absorption line consists of three components separated in both location as well as velocity. We derive HI column densities of 2×10²² cm⁻² assuming a gas spin temperature of 100 K. For the first time we are able to reliably estimate the HI cloud sizes (≈15 pc) and atomic gas densities (≈200 cm⁻³). Our results suggest that the HI gas is not associated with the <10 pc region which presumably contains the H₂O masers, but it is more distant from the nucleus, and is probably associated with the r1 kpc gas seen in CO.     

Studies on twelve common bivalve larvae,with notes on bivalve spawning seasons in New Zealand

Twelve common bivalve larvae occurring in the plankton from the Bay of Islands (35°15'S, 174°10'E), Wellington Harbour (41°16'S, 174°51'E), and off Raumati Beach (40°56'S, 174°58'E), New Zealand, during 1970–72 are described and, wherever possible, provisionally identified. The seasonal occurrences of these larvae in the plankton are also described. Information on the spawning cycles of some New Zealand adult bivalves is reviewed; although some species have a short (4 months or less) spawning season, for most it is much longer, possibly with ‘trickle’ spawning through several months of the year.     

Distribution of mid‐ and late‐stage Jasus edwardsii phyllosomas: Implications for larval recruitment processes

The relative distributions of mid‐ and late‐stage phyllosomas, and pueruli, of Jasus edwardsii from five research cruises off the east coast of the North Island of New Zealand were analysed. A statistical approach was taken, using a bootstrapping with replacement method to test whether the observed mid‐ and late‐stage phyllosomas could have come from the same distribution. Differences in distribution between mid‐ and late‐stage phyllosomas were very close to significant at 95% confidence for two cruises, significant at 85% confidence for one cruise, and two cruises showed a non‐significant result. When all cruise data were combined into one analysis, the differences between mid‐ and late‐stage phyllosomas were significant with 85% confidence. On average, late‐stage phyllosomas were found 49 km further inshore than mid‐stage phyllosomas. One station during one cruise and one transect during another showed such high abundances that they affected the analyses. When these outlier data were excluded, the differences in mid‐and late‐stage distributions become significant with 99% confidence. One explanation for observed distribution differences is that the late‐stage phyllosomas swim shoreward—as the pueruli are believed to do. This implies an ability to navigate in both these early life forms. If the late‐stage larvae are indeed swimming horizontally, it is likely that this is most effectively accomplished by final‐stage phyllosomas, which have well developed pleopods, similar to those in the puerulus stage.     

Beyond “Lawn People”: The Role of Emotions in Suburban Yard Management Practices

Many recent studies have applied satellite remote sensing data to large-scale hydrologic and biospheric modeling. It is widely accepted that the thermal infrared observations from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) have the potential to estimate land surface conditions, such as surface temperature, near surface air temperature, and near surface water vapor. In this study, algorithms to estimate all three variables are presented and applied to an area covering the state of Oklahoma for a six day period in August, 1994. The results were validated using ground observations from the 111 station Oklahoma Mesonet. Validation of the remote sensing algorithms with Mesonet observations produced comparable results to previous validation studies. In addition, the validation process revealed inadequacies in thermal modeling that had not been detected in previous validation studies leading to the development of a new approach to estimate atmospheric water vapor.     

An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.     

Automated landslide mapping using spectral analysis and high-resolution topographic data: Puget Sound lowlands, Washington, and Portland Hills, Oregon

Landslide inventory maps are necessary for assessing landslide hazards and addressing the role slope stability plays in landscape evolution over geologic timescales. However, landslide inventory maps produced with traditional methods — aerial photograph interpretation, topographic map analysis, and field inspection — are often subjective and incomplete. The increasing availability of high-resolution topographic data acquired via airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) over broad swaths of terrain invites new, automated landslide mapping procedures. We present two methods of spectral analysis that utilize LiDAR-derived digital elevation models of the Puget Sound lowlands, Washington, and the Tualatin Mountains, Oregon, to quantify and automatically map the topographic signatures of deep-seated landslides. Power spectra produced using the two-dimensional discrete Fourier transform and the two-dimensional continuous wavelet transform identify the characteristic spatial frequencies of deep-seated landslide morphologic features such as hummocky topography, scarps, and displaced blocks of material. Spatial patterns in the amount of spectral power concentrated in these characteristic frequency bands highlight past slope instabilities and allow the delineation of landslide terrain. When calibrated by comparison with detailed, independently compiled landslide inventory maps, our algorithms correctly classify an average of 82% of the terrain in our five study areas. Spectral analysis also allows the creation of dominant wavelength maps, which prove useful in analyzing meter-scale topographic expressions of landslide mechanics, past landslide activity, and landslide-modifying geomorphic processes. These results suggest that our automated landslide mapping methods can create accurate landslide maps and serve as effective, objective, and efficient tools for digital terrain analysis.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.     

A reanalysis of the relationship between strong westerlies and precipitation in the Great Plains and Midwest regions of North America

A conceptual model relating expanded or strengthened mid-latitude summer westerlies with summer precipitation patterns has been used to explain past drought events in the Great Plains and Midwest of North America, including drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. However, this relationship was originally described using 20 years of instrumental data from the mid 20{th} century, and has not been verified with modern datasets. We reinvestigated the relationship between July westerlies and precipitation in the United States using instrumental records of the last 55 years. We also investigated whether changes in summer zonal flow patterns associated with precipitation anomalies represent a shift in the latitude of peak westerly winds or an increase in wind speed, or a combination of both.Finally, we briefly compare the pattern of precipitation anomalies to paleoclimatic records of drought between 1200 and 1400 AD. Results confirm that strong westerlies are associated with a band of decreased precipitation extending from the northern Rockies into the Midwest. Changes in summer westerlies associated with these patterns are characterized by a strengthening of mean westerly winds, with only a slight southward shift of peak winds over the Atlantic. Changes in the strength of the westerlies over both the Pacific and Atlantic appear to be important to precipitation deficits in the Midwest. Proxy-climate records from 1200 to 1400 AD indicate widespread drought in the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with the hypothesis of stronger westerlies at this time. However, drought conditions also extended to other regions of North America, indicating a more detailed understanding of the potential causes and synoptic climatology is needed.     

Source localization with broad-band matched-field processing inshallow water

Acoustic source localization using matched-field processing is presented for multitone signals from the Shallow Water Evaluation cell Experiment 3 (SWellEX-3). The experiment was carried out in July 1994 west of Point Loma, CA, in 200 m of water of complex bathymetry. The multitone signal (ten tones between 50 and 200 Hz) was transmitted from an acoustic source towed at various depths over tracks which produced complex propagation paths to a vertical line array receiver. Broad-band and narrow-hand processing, localization, and tracking results are compared with each other and with independent estimates of source position. With narrow-band processing, mismatch between the data and the predicted signal replica of ~1 dB reduced the mainlobe to levels equal to or below the sidelobes. Incoherently averaging the processing output over the multiple tones reduced range/depth sidelobe levels, allowing accurate source localization and tracking