IPCC-AR4 climate simulations for the Southwestern US: the importance of future ENSO projections

Future climate trends for the Southwestern US, based on the climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, project a more arid climate in the region during the 21st century. However, future climate variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—an important driver for winter climate variability in the region—have not been addressed. In this work we evaluate future winter ENSO projections derived from two selected IPCC models, and their effect on Southwestern US climate. We first evaluate the ability of the IPCC coupled models to represent the climate of the Southwest, selecting the two models that best capture seasonal precipitation and temperature over the region and realistically represent ENSO variability (Max Planck Institute’s ECHAM5 and the UK Met Office HadCM3). Our work shows that the projected future aridity of the region will be dramatically amplified during La Niña conditions, as anomalies over a drier mean state, and will be characterized by higher temperatures (~0.5°C) and lower precipitation (~3 mm/mnt) than the projected trends. These results have important implications for water managers in the Southwest who must prepare for more intense winter aridity associated with future ENSO conditions.     

Experimental definition of microclimatic conditions based on water transfer and porous media properties for the conservation of prehistoric constructions: Cueva Pintada at Galdar,Gran Canaria,Spain

Microclimatic parameters and natural materials were studied in order to assess conservation of the cave complex at Galdar, Gran Canaria. Based on the microclimatic data, experimental simulations were carried out to quantify water retention capacity and water vapour transport kinetics under continuously changing extreme temperatures and relative humidity values. The behaviour of natural construction materials is greatly influenced by changes in thermo-hygrometric conditions and is linked to pore structure. The host rock has a complex porous media: high porosity and polymodal pore size distribution, where the smallest pores contribute to water condensation, whilst large pores lead to high water absorption rates. The axial compressive strength of the host-rock decreases between 30 and 70% at water saturation. Stuccos covering cave wall paintings are formed by clay minerals, mainly smectites. These clay minerals cover a large specific surface area, which leads to a high capacity for water condensation and retention. It is also shown that neither water condensation nor vapour transport are noticeably modified by the presence of stucco on the host-rock when rapid, highly variable changes occur in environmental conditions if large shrinkage cracks are present. Results show that safe threshold microclimatic conditions can be found below 75% RH in the natural temperature range and that slight variations in temperature and relative humidity do not modify durability properties.     

Future climate impacts on the hydrology of headwater streams in the Amazon River Basin: Implications for migratory goliath catfishes

Climate-driven alterations of hydro-meteorological conditions can change river flow regimes and potentially affect the migration behaviour of fishes and the productivity of important fisheries in the Amazon basin, such as those for the continental-scale migratory goliath catfishes (Brachyplatystoma, Pimelodidae). In this study, we investigated hydrologic responses to climate change using a hydrologic model forced with climate inputs, which integrate historical (2001–2010) observations and general circulation model (GCM) projections under the emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. We developed an empirical model to characterize future (2090–2099) climate-change impacts on goliath catfish spawning migrations as a function of river flow depth dynamics at the upstream elevational limit of spawning (250 m) in headwater basins of the Amazon. The model results revealed spatially variable impacts of climate change on the catfish spawning migrations. The Marañón, Ucayali, Juruá, Purus, and Madeira basins had a predicted increase in the annual mean (3–8%) and maximum (1.1–4.9%) spawning migration rate (i.e., the fraction of fish that migrate to the spawning grounds in a day), mainly due to the lengthened rising phase of flow-driven migratory events during wet seasons. The Caquetá-Japurá, Putumayo-Içá, Napo, and Blanco rivers had predicted decreases (3–7%) in the mean migration rate because of decreases in the length of the rising season of flow depth and the frequency of migratory events. The predicted timing of fish spawning migrations (quantified by the temporal centroid of migration rates) was delayed by 7–10 days in the west-central and southwest regions and was 8 days earlier in the northwest and northcentral areas, due to changes in the onset of the rising season. We established a river depth baseline that controls the onset of goliath catfish spawning migration. This depth varies between 0.9–5.6 m across study sites. We found that the estimated depth baseline was most sensitive to uncertainties in river width and cross-sectional channel shape. These results may help inform sustainable adaptation strategies for ecosystem conservation and local fisheries management in the Amazon basin.     

Three thousand years of flank and central vent eruptions of the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and their effects on El Cambio archeological site: a review based on tephrostratigraphy

The volcanic events of the last 3,000?years at San Salvador volcanic complex are reviewed using detailed stratigraphic records exposed in new excavations between 2005 and 2007, at El Cambio archeological site (Zapotitán Valley, El Salvador), and in other outcrops on the northern and northwestern sectors of the complex. The sequences that overlie Tierra Blanca Joven (cal. 429?±?107?ad), from the Ilopango caldera, comprise the Loma Caldera (cal. 590?±?90?ad) and El Playón (1658?C1671) deposits and the San Andrés Tuff (cal. 1031?±?29?ad), related to El Boquerón Volcano. The surge deposits within the El Playón, San Andrés Tuff and overlying Talpetate II sequences indicate the significance of phreatomagmatic phases in both central vent and flank eruptions during the last 1,600?years. Newly identified volcanic deposits underlying Tierra Blanca Joven at El Cambio extend the stratigraphic record of the area to 3,000?years?bp. Paleosols interstratified with those deposits contain cultural artifacts which could be associated with the Middle Preclassic period (900?C400?bc). If correct, human occupation of the site during the Preclassic period was more intense than previously known and volcanic eruptions must have affected prehistoric settlements. The archeological findings provide information on how prehistoric populations dealt with volcanic hazards, thousands of years ago in the eastern Zapotitán Valley, where several housing projects are currently being developed. The new stratigraphic and volcanological data can be used as a basis for local and regional hazard assessment related to future secondary vent activity in the San Salvador Volcanic Complex.     

The influence of petrophysical properties on the salt weathering of porous building rocks

The influence of pore structure, water transport properties and rock strength on salt weathering is evaluated by means of a thorough rock characterisation and a statistical analysis. The pore structure was described in terms of its porosity, pore size distribution (quantified by mean pore radius) and specific surface area, density and water transport was characterised by means of water permeability (saturated flow) and capillary imbibition (unsaturated flow); whilst the rock strength test was carried out using uniaxial compressive strength, compressional and shear wave velocities, dynamic elastic constants and waveform energy and attenuation were obtained from the digital analysis of the transmitted signal. A principal component analysis and a stepwise multiple regression model was carried out in order to examine the direct relationships between salt weathering and petrophysical properties. From the principal component analysis, two main components were obtained and assigned a petrophysical meaning. The first component is mostly linked to mechanical properties, porosity and density whereas the second component is associated with the water transport and pore structure. Salt weathering, quantified by the percentage of weight loss after salt crystallisation, was included in both principal components, showing its dependence on their petrophysical properties. The stepwise multiple regression analysis found that rock strength has a predominant statistical weight in the prediction of salt weathering, with a minor contribution of water transport and pore structure parameters.     

A fractal model for streaming potential coefficient in porous media

Streaming potential is the result of coupling between a fluid flow and an electric current in porous rocks. The modified Helmholtz–Smoluchowski equation derived for capillary tubes is mostly used to determine the streaming potential coefficient of porous media. However, to the best of our knowledge, the fractal geometry theory is not yet applied to analyse the streaming potential in porous media. In this article, a fractal model for the streaming potential coefficient in porous media is developed based on the fractal theory of porous media and on the streaming potential in a capillary. The proposed model is expressed in terms of the zeta potential at the solid?liquid interface, the minimum and maximum pore/capillary radii, the fractal dimension, and the porosity of porous media. The model is also examined by using another capillary size distribution available in published articles. The results obtained from the model using two different capillary size distributions are in good agreement with each other. The model predictions are then compared with experimental data in the literature and those based on the modified Helmholtz–Smoluchowski equation. It is shown that the predictions from the proposed fractal model are in good agreement with experimental data. In addition, the proposed model is able to reproduce the same result as the Helmholtz–Smoluchowski equation, particularly for high fluid conductivity or large grain diameters. Other factors influencing the streaming potential coefficient in porous media are also analysed.     

Records of large earthquakes in lake sediments along the North Anatolian Fault,Turkey

In 1999, the large surface-rupturing earthquakes of Izmit and Duzce completed a 60-year cycle that included a westward migration of nine consecutive large earthquake failures (>50 km surface rupture), which started with the 1939 Erzincan earthquake in eastern Turkey. In this study, we focused on seismic cycles and seismic risk predictability along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). Toward the west end of the NAF (26°E–32°E, i.e. Bolu), large earthquake frequency is measured from either historic earthquake catalogs, or geologic records from isolated outcrops and marine sediment cores from the Marmara Sea. In comparison, the eastern part of the NAF zone (32°E–42°E) is less well documented by palaeo-seismologic archives. Thus, the sediment records of lake basins located on the eastern NAF zone constitute a unique opportunity for testing a new palaeo-seismologic approach. To this end, we used a diverse array of complementary methods involving: (1) a 600-km transect of fault-related lakes, (2) sedimentologic observations on cores from six lakes, and (3) a comparison between records of catastrophic sediment transfers in lakes (i.e. radionuclide chronomarkers and erosion tracers) and historic earthquake reports. Our study indicates that lakes along the NAF are sensitive geologic recorders of large surface-rupturing earthquakes (surface-wave magnitude (M _s) ≥ 6.9); smaller intensities are not recorded. The most responsive lake systems exhibit increases in sediment accumulation by a factor of >40 for a >3-m strike-slip displacement (M _s ≥ 7). However, based on results from the 1939 Erzincan earthquake (M _s = 7.8) chronostratigraphic marker, large surface-rupturing earthquakes are detected only by certain lake records and not by others. Matching multiple lake records along the NAF provides information both on the location of a surface rupture of a paleo-earthquake as well as its magnitude. Finally, the shallow lake basins along the NAF could potentially document cycles of large seismic events for at least the late Holocene.