Southern California inner basin sediment trap calibration

The deployment of particle interceptor traps (PITs) in the three inner basins of the Southern California Bight (Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, and San Pedro) where preserved, laminated, bottom sediments occur, provides a natural calibration between the parameters determined with the PITs and those derived from the historical sedimentary deposits. The accumulation rates and chemical composition of the PIT materials compare favorably with these recently deposited bottom sediments. The ratio of the measured particle collection rate to the sediment accumulation rate for these three basins averaged0.93±0.20. Radionuclide (²¹⁰Pb,²²⁸Th/²³²Th) and trace element (Fe, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb) compositions of the PIT materials and surface sediments agree within, generally, 30% in each basin.An application of PITs as a sampling system in an outer basin (San Nicolas) where the sedimentary record has been obscured by bioturbation is also presented to further demonstrate the utility of PITs for spatial and temporal studies of various aspects of particle transport and sediment deposition. Based on the calibration of the PITs in the three inner basins we conclude from the comparison of the radionuclide and trace element compositions between the PIT materials and surface sediments from the San Nicolas Basin that recently deposited sedimentary material has been mixed by bioturbation with older material from the last several hundred years. Excess²¹⁰Pb and the²²⁸Th/²³²Th activity ratio in the PIT material are 6 and 15 times higher than in the surface sediment. Total Pb and1N HNO₃-leachable Pb are 4- and 8-fold higher in the PIT material.     

Suffer a Sea Change? Contrasting perspectives towards urban policy and migration in coastal Australia

Has the notion of ‘sea change’ and its considerable implications for non-metropolitan coastal Australia been exaggerated? In this article alternative perspectives of ‘sea change’ in Australia are reviewed, and the policy implications of each assessed. One perspective regards migration to coastal areas beyond the capital cities as incidental to continued metropolitan primacy and unlikely to affect or change Australia's overall urban or economic structure. The other considers the movement as a significant and enduring process with major environmental and socio-economic repercussions. With reference to research conducted for the National Sea Change Taskforce, the article finds partial support for both positions, leading to a more revealing understanding of ‘sea change’ in Australia. A set of policy responses, sensitive to the particular qualities of Australian coastal environments and communities, are proposed for consideration by all three tiers of government.     

Asymmetric measures of association, closed data, and multivariate analysis

The association between constant-sum variables X_i and X_j expressed as percentages can be calculated as a product-moment correlation between X_i and X_j/(100 – X_i ) and a correlation between X_j and X_i/(100 – X_j ). An asymmetric, square matrix may be formed from these coefficients, and multivariate analysis performed by two methods: singular value decomposition and canonical decomposition. Either analysis avoids problems in the interpretation of correlation coefficients determined from closed arrays, and provides information about dependencies among the variables beyond that obtained from the usual correlation coefficient between X_i and X_j.Two examples show the canonical decomposition to have the greater usefulness.     

Upholding labour productivity under climate change: an assessment of adaptation options

Changes in labour productivity feed through directly to national income. An external shock, like climate change, which may substantially reduce the productivity of workers is therefore a macroeconomic concern. The biophysical impact of higher temperatures on human performance is well documented. Less well understood are the wider effects of higher temperatures on the aggregate productivity of modern, diversified economies, where economic output is produced in contexts ranging from outdoor agriculture to work in air-conditioned buildings. Working conditions are at least to some extent the result of societal choices, which means that the labour productivity effects of heat can be alleviated through careful adaptation. A range of technical, regulatory/infrastructural and behavioural options are available to individuals, businesses and governments. The importance of local contexts prevents a general ranking of the available measures, but many appear cost-effective. Promising options include the optimization of working hours and passive cooling mechanisms. Climate-smart urban planning and adjustments to building design are most suitable to respond to high base temperature, while air conditioning can respond flexibly to short temperature peaks if there is sufficient cheap, reliable and clean electricity.

Key policy insights

• The effect of heat stress on labour productivity is a key economic impact of climate change, which could affect national output and workers’ income.

• Effective adaptation options exist, such as shifting working hours and cool roofs, but they require policy intervention and forward planning.

• Strategic interventions, such as climate-smart municipal design, are as important as reactive or project-level adaptations.

• Adaptation solutions to heat stress are highly context specific and need to be assessed accordingly. For example, shifting working hours could be an effective way of reducing the effect of peak temperatures, but only if there is sufficient flexibility in working patterns.

     

Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO₂ doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change.     

An ensemble forecast of the South China Sea monsoon

1.IntroductionThispaperexploresanensembleforecaststrategyforthelarge--scaletropicalpredictionproblem.Thisisgeneralizedfromarecentstudyontheuseofempiricalorthogonalfunction(EOF)--basedperturbationsforhurricanetrackensembleforecasts,(ZhangandKrishnamur...     

Scientific exploration of near‐Earth objects via the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

Abstract— A study in late 2006 was sponsored by the Advanced Projects Office within NASA's Constellation Program to examine the feasibility of sending the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) to a near‐Earth object (NEO). The ideal mission profile would involve two or three astronauts on a 90 to 180 day flight, which would include a 7 to 14 day stay for proximity operations at the target NEO. This mission would be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth‐Moon system and would prove useful for testing technologies required for human missions to Mars and other solar system destinations. Piloted missions to NEOs using the CEV would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in‐depth scientific investigations of these primitive objects. The main scientific advantage of sending piloted missions to NEOs would be the flexibility of the crew to perform tasks and to adapt to situations in real time. A crewed vehicle would be able to test several different sample collection techniques and target specific areas of interest via extra‐vehicular activities (EVAs) more efficiently than robotic spacecraft. Such capabilities greatly enhance the scientific return from these missions to NEOs, destinations vital to understanding the evolution and thermal histories of primitive bodies during the formation of the early solar system. Data collected from these missions would help constrain the suite of materials possibly delivered to the early Earth, and would identify potential source regions from which NEOs originate. In addition, the resulting scientific investigations would refine designs for future extraterrestrial resource extraction and utilization, and assist in the development of hazard mitigation techniques for planetary defense.     

Sand beach ridges record 6000 year history of extreme tropical cyclone activity in northeastern Australia

Sand beach ridges are considered to be derived either from aeolian processes and/or waves but their deposition by individual or multiple storms has not been investigated in any detail. We use numerical meteorological and oceanographic models to determine the origin of a sequence of 29 shore parallel sand beach ridges in northeastern Australia. The results suggest that the ridges were constructed by waves and that the final form or height of the ridges is a function of high-energy tropical cyclone generated waves plus storm tides. Hence these landforms archive a nearly 6000 year long history of intense tropical cyclones. The record implies that these extreme tempests occur considerably more frequently than that suggested by the short historical record for this region. The genesis of this sand beach ridge plain has implications for the interpretation of similar sequences elsewhere along the northeast coast of Australia and in comparable environments globally. If other similar sand beach ridge plains have also been deposited by like processes it stands to reason that these long-term records of high intensity tropical cyclones can be used to ascertain a regional scale risk assessment from this hazard.     

A dynamic prediction model for time-to-peak

A simplified empirical equation is developed for widespread prediction of dynamic catchment response time. This model allows for time-to-peak prediction to evolve from static, lumped models, thereby providing a single value for any storm within a given catchment, using a single set of input parameters, that can be applied to a dynamic model, thus accounting for the variability between storm sizes and catchment moisture conditions. These dynamic prediction methods are translated to North America for the first time. This allows the concepts and prediction methods for catchment response time prediction previously established for the United Kingdom (UK), to be translated to a simple empirical equation for use in North America, through the use of selected study areas in Canada and the United States. This reconfigured model is statistically successful in both the UK and North America and allows for a straightforward implementation of dynamic time-to-peak prediction. Further, the reconfigured model introduces the use of a runoff coefficient (R_c) to encompass historical catchment wetness, increasing the ease of incorporating antecedent moisture condition into predictions.