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Marjolijn Haasnoot Jan H. Kwakkel Warren E. Walker Judith ter Maat 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):485-498
A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach. 相似文献
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Warren J.D. Stanton T.K. McGehee D.E. Dezhang Chu 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2002,27(1):130-138
It is well known that the behavior of zooplankton and, in particular, their orientation distribution dramatically affects the level of backscattered acoustic energy. As a result, interpretation of acoustic survey data in the ocean is subject to error. In order to quantify these effects, laboratory data from two important classes of animals were collected. The data involved broad-band (350-650 kHz) acoustic signals insonifying individual animals whose orientation was varied over the range 0°-360° in 1° increments. The animals were from two major anatomical groups: fluid-like (decapod shrimp; Palaemonetes vulgaris) and elastic-shelled (periwinkles; Littorina littorea). The data were analyzed both in the time domain (with pulse compression processing) and the frequency domain. Averages of the laboratory data over different orientation distributions illustrate the variability in average target strength that can be expected in the ocean environment. The average target strength of the shrimp varied by 3 dB when averaged over orientation distributions centered around broadside and end-on incidence. In addition, size estimates from pulse compression processing of the broad-band echoes were made for various orientation distributions for both the shrimp and periwinkles. These results show the necessity of animal orientation information for the proper interpretation of acoustic backscatter data 相似文献
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L. Clewley S. J. Warren P. C. Hewett John. E. Norris M. I. Wilkinson N. W. Evans 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,362(1):349-360
We present FOcal Reducer/low dispersion Spectrograph-1 spectra (from the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope) of a sample of 34 faint 20.0 < g * < 21.1 A-type stars selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Early Data Release, with the goal of measuring the velocity dispersion of blue horizontal branch (BHB) stars in the remote Galactic halo, R ∼ 80 kpc . We show that colour selection with 1.08 < u *− g * < 1.40 and −0.2 < g *− r * < −0.04 minimizes contamination of the sample by less luminous blue stragglers. In classifying the stars we confine our attention to the 20 stars with spectra of signal-to-noise ratio >15 Å−1 . Classification produces a sample of eight BHB stars at distances 65–102 kpc from the Sun (mean 80 kpc), which represents the most distant sample of Galactic stars with measured radial velocities. The dispersion of the measured radial component of the velocity with respect to the centre of the Galaxy is 58 ± 15 km s−1 . This value is anomalously low in comparison with measured values for stars at smaller distances, as well as for satellites at similar distances. Seeking an explanation for the low measured velocity dispersion, further analysis reveals that six of the eight remote BHB stars are plausibly associated with a single orbit. Three previously known outer halo carbon stars also appear to belong to this stream. The velocity dispersion of all nine stars relative to the orbit is only 15 ± 4 km s−1 . Further observations along the orbit are required to trace the full extent of this structure on the sky. 相似文献
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Abstract— For most elements, polymict ureilite EET83309 shows no significant compositional difference from other ureilites, including ordinary (“monomict”) ureilites. Polymict ureilites appear to be mixtures of a wide variety of ordinary ureilites, with little dilution by “foreign” extra-ureilitic materials. Thus, they apparently were mixed (i.e., the ureilites in general formed) on a very small number of parent bodies. In one respect, polymict ureilites do stand out. Along with the only other polymict ureilite that has been analyzed for REE (Nilpena), EET83309 has much higher concentrations of light-middle REE than most ordinary ureilites. Despite these relative enrichments in LREE, polymict ureilites are nearly devoid of basaltic (Al-rich) material. A basaltic component should have formed along with (and presumably above) the ultramafic ureilites, in any closed-system differentiation of an originally chondritic asteroid. This scarcity of complementary basaltic materials may be an important clue to ureilite origins. We suggest that ureilites originated as paracumulates (mushy, cumulate-like, partial melt residues) deep within a primordially-heated asteroid or asteroids. While still largely molten, the asteroid was severely disrupted, and most of its external basaltic portion was permanently blown away, by impact of a large, C-rich projectile. This partially-disruptive impact tended to permeate the paracumulates with C-rich, noble-gas-rich, and 16O-rich magma derived mainly from shock-melting of the projectile. After reaccumulation and cooling, the resultant mixtures of cumulus mafic silicates with essentially “foreign” C-matrix became “monomict” ureilites. Further small impacts produced polymict ureilites as components of a newly-developed, basalt-poor megaregolith. The consistently moderate pyroxene/olivine ratios of the ureilites are as expected for partial melt residues, but not for cumulate (sensu stricto) rocks. The final projectile/target mixing ratio tended to be greatest among the more magnesian and pyroxene-rich portions of the paracumulate, because these portions were lowest in density, and thus concentrated toward the upper surface of the paracumulate layer. As a result, ureilites show correlations among C, Δ17O, and silicate-core mg. This model appears to reconcile many paradoxical aspects of ureilite composition (primitive, near-chondritic, except depleted in basalt, diverse Δ17O) and petrography (igneous, cumulate-like). 相似文献
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