A two-level perturbation method for connecting unstable periodic orbits with low fuel cost and short time of flight: application to a lunar observation mission

The proposed method connects two unstable periodic orbits by employing trajectories of their associated invariant manifolds that are perturbed in two levels. A first level of velocity perturbations is applied on the trajectories of the discretized manifolds at the points where they approach the nominal unstable periodic orbit in order to accelerate them. A second level of structured velocity perturbations is applied to trajectories that have already been subjected to first level perturbations in order to approximately meet the necessary conditions for a low \(\varDelta \text {V}\) transfer. Due to this two-level perturbation approach, the number of the trajectories obtained is significantly larger compared with approaches that employ traditional invariant manifolds. For this reason, the problem of connecting two unstable periodic orbits through perturbed trajectories of their manifolds is transformed into an equivalent discrete optimization problem that is solved with a very low computational complexity algorithm that is proposed in this paper. Finally, the method is applied to a lunar observation mission of practical interest and is found to perform considerably better in terms of \(\varDelta \text {V}\) cost and time of flight when compared with previous techniques applied to the same project.     

Effects of Docks on Salt Marsh Vegetation: an Evaluation of Ecological Impacts and the Efficacy of Current Design Standards

Private docks are common in estuaries worldwide. Docks in Massachusetts (northeast USA) cumulatively overlie ~ 6 ha of salt marsh. Although regulations are designed to minimize dock impacts to salt marsh vegetation, few data exist to support the efficacy of these policies. To quantify impacts associated with different dock designs, we compared vegetation characteristics and light levels under docks with different heights, widths, orientations, decking types and spacing, pile spacing, and ages relative to adjacent control areas across the Massachusetts coastline (n = 212). We then evaluated proportional changes in stem density and biomass of the dominant vegetation (Spartina alterniflora and Spartina patens) in relation to dock and environmental (marsh zone and nitrogen loading) characteristics. Relative to adjacent, undeveloped habitat, Spartina spp. under docks had ~ 40% stem density, 60% stem biomass, greater stem height and nitrogen content, and a higher proportion of S. alterniflora. Light availability was greater under taller docks and docks set at a north-south orientation but did not differ between decking types. Dock height best predicted vegetation loss, but orientation, pile spacing, decking type, age, and marsh zone also affected marsh production. We combined our proportional biomass and stem elemental composition estimates to calculate a statewide annual loss of ~ 2200 kg dry weight of Spartina biomass (367 kg per ha of dock coverage). Managers can reduce impacts through design modifications that maximize dock height (> 150 cm) and pile spacing while maintaining a north-south orientation, but dock proliferation must also be addressed to limit cumulative impacts.     

Functional and Compositional Responses of Periphyton Mats to Simulated Saltwater Intrusion in the Southern Everglades

Periphyton plays key ecological roles in karstic, freshwater wetlands and is extremely sensitive to environmental change making it a powerful tool to detect saltwater intrusion into these vulnerable and valuable ecosystems. We conducted field mesocosm experiments in the Florida Everglades, USA to test the effects of saltwater intrusion on periphyton metabolism, nutrient content, and diatom species composition, and how these responses differ between mats from a freshwater versus a brackish marsh. Pulsed saltwater intrusion was simulated by dosing treatment chambers monthly with a brine solution for 15 months; control chambers were simultaneously dosed with site water. Periphyton from the freshwater marsh responded to a 1-ppt increase in surface water salinity with reduced productivity and decreased concentrations of total carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. These functional responses were accompanied by significant shifts in periphytic diatom assemblages. Periphyton mats at the brackish marsh were more functionally resilient to the saltwater treatment (~?2 ppt above ambient), but nonetheless experienced significant shifts in diatom composition. These findings suggest that freshwater periphyton is negatively affected by small, short-term increases in salinity and that periphytic diatom assemblages, particularly at the brackish marsh, are a better metric of salinity increases compared with periphyton functional metrics due to functional redundancy. This research provides new and valuable information regarding periphyton dynamics in response to changing water sources in the southern Everglades that will allow us to extend the use of periphyton, and their diatom assemblages, as tools for environmental assessments related to saltwater intrusion.     

Reconstructing Aragonite Saturation State Based on an Empirical Relationship for Northern California

Ocean acidification is a global phenomenon with highly regional spatial and temporal patterns. In order to address the challenges of future ocean acidification at a regional scale, it is necessary to increase the resolution of spatial and temporal monitoring of the inorganic carbon system beyond what is currently available. One approach is to develop empirical regional models that enable aragonite saturation state to be estimated from existing hydrographic measurements, for which greater spatial coverage and longer time series exist in addition to higher spatial and temporal resolution. We present such a relationship for aragonite saturation state for waters off Northern California based on in situ bottle sampling and instrumental measurements of temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. Application of this relationship to existing datasets (5 to 200 m depth) demonstrates both seasonal and interannual variability in aragonite saturation state. We document a deeper aragonite saturation horizon and higher near surface aragonite saturation state in the summers of 2014 and 2015 (compared with 2010–2013), associated with anomalous warm conditions and decadal scale oscillations. Application of this model to time series data reiterates the direct association between low aragonite saturation state and upwelled waters and highlights the extent to which benthic communities on the Northern California shelf are already exposed to aragonite undersaturated waters.     

The effects of K2O on the compositions of near-solidus melts of garnet peridotite at 3 GPa and the origin of basalts from enriched mantle

Enrichment in K₂O in oceanic island basalts (OIB) is correlated with high SiO₂, low CaO/Al₂O₃, and radiogenic isotopic signatures indicative of enriched mantle sources (EM1 and EM2). These are also chemical characteristics of the petit-spot lavas, which are highly enriched in K₂O (3–4 wt%) compared to other primitive oceanic basalts. We present experimentally derived liquids with varying concentrations of K₂O in equilibrium with a garnet lherzolite residue at 3 GPa to test the hypothesis that the major element characteristics of EM-type basalts are related to their enrichment in K₂O. SiO₂ is known to increase with K₂O at pressures less than 3 GPa, but it was previously unknown if this effect was significant at the high pressures associated with partial melting at the base of the lithosphere. We find that at 3 GPa for each 1 wt% increase in the K₂O content of a garnet lherzolite saturated melt, SiO₂ increases by ~0.5 wt% and CaO decreases by ~0.5 wt%. MgO and $K_{D}^{{{\text{Fe}} - {\text{Mg}}}}$ K D Fe - Mg each decrease slightly with K₂O concentration, as do Na₂O and Cr₂O₃. The effect of K₂O alone is not strong enough to account for the SiO₂ and CaO signatures associated with high-K₂O OIB. The SiO₂, CaO, and K₂O concentrations of experimentally derived partial melts presented here resemble those of petit-spot lavas, but the Al₂O₃ concentrations from the experimental melts are greater. Partitioning of K₂O between peridotite and melt suggests that petit spots, previously considered to sample ambient asthenosphere, require a source more enriched in K₂O than the MORB source.     

The predictability of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality in seven US cities

Heat-related mortality remains a public health challenge in the United States. The objective of this study was to determine the temporal consistency of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality using historical georeferenced mortality data from seven US cities. A generalized additive model was used to identify city-specific threshold temperatures associated with increased mortality, and then the mortality rate on threshold-exceeding days was calculated for each postal code comprising each study city. This process was iterated by withholding subsets of data from the model and assessing predictability via cross-validation. In all cities, the average mortality rate in postal codes targeted for intervention by the statistical model was higher than that in non-targeted areas. Targeted areas for interventions in the study data accounted for 50 % of excess heat-related deaths despite only accounting for 25 % of total mortality. Focusing intervention measures at certain geographical zones within urban areas could be an effective means of combating heat-related mortality because there is temporal consistency in places where the death rate is most sensitive to heat.     

The measurement of mangrove characteristics in southwest Florida using spot multispectral data

An intensive in situ sampling program near Marco Island, Florida during 19–23 October 1988 collected information on mangrove type, maximum canopy height, and percent canopy closure. These data were correlated with selected vegetation index information derived from analysis of SPOT multispectral (XS) data obtained on 21 October 1988. The Normalized Difference (ND) vegetation index information was the most highly correlated index with percent canopy closure (r=0.91). Percent canopy closure information can be used as a surrogate for mangrove density which is of great value when predicting which parts of the mangrove ecosystem are at greatest risk after an oil spill occurs. Such information is very valuable when constructing oil spill Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) Maps for tropical regions of the world.     

GIS-based stratification of malaria risk zones for Zimbabwe

Abstract

Malaria burden has considerably declined in the last 15 years mainly due to large-scale vector control. The continued decline can be sustained through malaria risk stratification. Malaria stratification is the classification of geographical areas according to malaria risk. In this study, ecological niche modelling using the maximum entropy algorithm was applied to predict malaria vector habitat suitability in terms of bioclimatic and topographic variables. The output vector suitability map was integrated with malaria prevalence data in a GIS to stratify Zimbabwe into different malaria risk zones. Five improved and validated malaria risk zones were successfully delimited for Zimbabwe based on the World Health Organization classification scheme. These results suggest that the probability of occurrence of major vectors of malaria is a key determinant of malaria prevalence. The delimited malaria risk zones could be used by National Malaria Control programmes to plan and implement targeted malaria interventions based on vector control.     

The status of wetlands and the predicted effects of global climate change: the situation in Australia

The condition of many wetlands across Australia has deteriorated due to increased water regulation and the expansion and intensification of agriculture and increased urban and industrial expansion. Despite this situation, a comprehensive overview of the distribution and condition of wetlands across Australia is not available. Regional analyses exist and several exemplary mapping and monitoring exercises have been maintained to complement the more general information sets. It is expected that global climate change will exacerbate the pressures on inland wetlands, while sea level rises will adversely affect coastal wetlands. It is also expected that the exacerbation of these pressures will increase the potential for near-irreversible changes in the ecological state of some wetlands. Concerted institutional responses to such pressures have in the past proven difficult to sustain, although there is some evidence that a more balanced approach to water use and agriculture is being developed with the provision of increasing funds to purchase water for environmental flows being one example. We identify examples from around Australia that illustrate the impacts on wetlands of long-term climate change from palaeoecological records (south-eastern Australia); water allocation (Murray-Darling Basin); dryland salinisation (south-western Australia); and coastal salinisation (northern Australia). These are provided to illustrate both the extent of change in wetlands and the complexity of differentiating the specific effects of climate change. An appraisal of the main policy responses by government to climate change is provided as a basis for further considering the opportunities for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Perceptions of occupational risk by US commercial fishermen

The dangers associated with commercial fishing are well documented, and fishermen consistently face one of the highest job-related mortality risks of all US occupations. This study explored fishermen's perceptions of these risks in a representative sample of Maine commercial fishing vessel captains. Data were collected on sociodemographic characteristics and risk preferences during sea boardings of working commercial fishing vessels (n=233) along the full extent of the Maine coastline. Trends in perceived risk were explored across the various sociodemographic categories. Fishermen in this study consistently undervalued their true occupational risk, and rated it as average despite consistent evidence to the contrary. Those more likely to downgrade the risk of fishing included state registered vessels and those found to be non-compliant with existing safety regulations. Less educated fishermen and those who come from a fishing family were also more likely to underrate the risks, as were those fishermen who displayed risk-loving tendencies in other facets of their lives such as smokers and those who did not use seat belts. Middle-aged fishermen were also more likely to underrate the risk than the youngest and oldest groups, suggesting that overconfidence grows and then wanes over time. The results of this study strongly suggest that the current safety training and awareness programs targeting fishermen are inadequate. Furthermore, widespread voluntary participation in organized safety training is unlikely since the majority of fishermen believed that the risks were not relevant to their own activities.